Warning - Wild & Crazy Weather Ahead!

October 2nd, 2018.

Warning - Wild & Crazy Weather Ahead!

Valid At 3:12 PM MDT This Friday Afternoon.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Saturday Mornings.

Valid Tonight Into 6 AM MDT Saturday Morning.

Valid At 6 AM MDT This Friday Morning.

ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT This Coming Sunday Evening.

Valid Tonight Through Noon MDT Monday.

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
323 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018


.Moisture from Tropical Cyclone Sergio will move across the area
overnight and combine with a cold front to produce widespread
heavy rainfall. While a general 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected,
training of storms could lead to locally higher amounts. Already
saturated soils could lead to faster runoff that may result in a
higher chance of flooding. Heavy rain will move away from the area
late Saturday morning.


* This evening through Saturday morning

* Heavy rainfall and already saturated soils could lead to
  runoff that may result in flash flooding of urban areas,
  streams, and other low lying areas.

* Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize
  the dangers of floods and flash floods. Dont drive across
  flooded roads as most flash flood deaths occur in automobiles.
  Turn around, don`t drown.


A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.


There are times when our weather simply blows my mind. And this is one of them. As crazy as it may sound we are fixing to experience three of our four seasons (only summer will be left out) from tonight into Monday. A combination of weather factors are coming together to take us on a wild and crazy ride weather-wise this weekend into Monday. We kick off the fireworks tonight with severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. 

First: Lets talk about the remnant moisture from former Hurricane Sergio. He has fallen apart over Northwestern Mexico as his remnant moisture streams northeastward into the area this afternoon. This is seen on the water vapor satellite image above. His moisture will continue to overspread the area tonight into Saturday in the southwesterly flow aloft greatly increasing our chances for significant rainfall. Forecast models are calling for widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 2" tonight into Saturday with locally heavier totals.

Second: A weak stationary frontal boundary is draped across the area this afternoon and won't move all that much overnight into tomorrow morning. This will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development overnight. Some of which is forecast to be severe. Damaging winds, large hail, and yes even a few tornadoes will be possible overnight in parts of Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas.

Third: A strong cold front will plow southward through the area on Sunday as a strong mid-level trough of low pressure to our north sweeps eastward out of the Rockies. Get ready for a shock because we are going from fall to winter weather in some parts of New Mexico and nearby areas. Its not out of the question for light accumulations of the white stuff (snow) may fall as far south as the Roswell area Sunday night into Monday morning. Afterwards when the skies clear Monday night don't be surprised if some of us experience our first freeze of the season. Typically this occurs around Halloween for most of the lower elevations of Southeastern New Mexico.

Our high temperatures on Sunday will likely occur early in the day or morning and drop some 30 to 40 degrees below normal by Monday with highs only in the 30's and 40's! Gusty north to northeasterly winds behind the cold front Sunday into Monday morning will most definitely add to the winter-like chill in the air born upon gusts in the 25 to 40 mph range early on.

Come Monday You Will Be Wondering What Happened To Fall!

Valid At 6 PM MDT Sunday.

NWS NDFD High Temperature Anomaly Forecast Monday.

NWS NDFD Storm Total Snowfall Forecasts.

Valid Sunday Night Into Noon MDT Monday.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!


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