Low Temperatures This Morning & What About Sergio's Moisture?


October 2nd, 2018.

Once again we were able to go back to the Boston area and visit my wife's family and friends. Lucky me this is my second time of being an official "Leaf Peeper". I shot this photo on the Kancamagus highway in the White Mountains National Forest. I dearly love my home state of New Mexico but simply put few places (in my humble opinion) can hold a candle to New England in the fall!







Now that's more like it. Cool crisp fall-like temperatures were recorded across the state and local area this morning. Lows locally varied from the 20's and 30's in the Sacramento Mountains to the 40's across the Southeastern Plains. Our afternoon highs have been in the 60's in the mountains and the 70's across the plains. I'm soo glad to see this. 



Our low here at our home in Carlsbad this morning was 47º. The last time we were this cool was on April 28th.

What About Sergio's Moisture?

Remnants from Hurricane Sergio will increase rain chances across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, particularly Friday night and Saturday. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible, so stay tuned to the latest forecasts, watches and advisories. #txwx #nmwx pic.twitter.com/C5dzdhmdQI

Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday.

GFS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday.

Well the computer forecast models have decided to go on the blink and "blink" concerning just how much rain we will or will not see from the remnants of Sergio Friday into Saturday. The GFS has backed way off on its totals for Southeastern New Mexico while the European still gives us anywhere from a half on an inch to as much as 2.50" in Lea County. We appear on track to get wet but just how wet now remains uncertain.

Strong Cold Front Sunday.


Valid At Noon MDT Monday.

ECMWF 10-Day Temperature Forecast.


GFS 10-Day Temperature Forecast.


Yet another strong fall cold front will arrive on Sunday with the net result of knocking our high temperatures down some 20º to 30º below normal Monday, Tuesday, and maybe Wednesday.

Catastrophic Hurricane Michael Made Landfall Today.
Michael came ashore near Mexico Beach, Florida this morning (New Mexico time) with sustained winds of 155 mph gusting to around 175 mph with a central pressure of 919 millibars. He has already set records and I'll post a blog with all of the details and more in a few days.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions are expected today! Please be smart and try to avoid outdoor burning and starting campfires this Memorial Day weekend. Any new fire starts will spread rapidly. It is extremely important today to follow safety protocols and regulations issued by local authorities, including any evacuation orders. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged and potentially illegal and very dangerous. Your neighbors lives and livelihood may be affected by your actions.

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