Today (Sunday, May 31st) marks the last day of the meteorological spring. Therefore Monday will be the first day of the meteorological summer. Here at our home in Carlsbad, New Mexico I only recorded a trace of precipitation during April and also in May. February was wetter than normal with a monthly precipitation total of .77". March saw 1.77" which is way above normal and the wettest March at our home in the past 13 years. After that its been bone dry with no significant relief or hope in sight for meaningful rainfall.
New Mexico's drought conditions continue to slowly worsen over much of the state, especially over the northern, central, and eastern areas. Long-range forecasts for June and the summer (June-July-August) do not offer much hope for relief either.
According to the Climate Prediction Centers' long-range summer outlook at best we can expect close to normal rainfall over the state and local area this summer. Just for the record, I am not nor have I ever been much of a fan of long-range weather forecasting. Especially in today's political environment where weather and climatology have been weaponized.
ENSCO-neutral conditions are developing out over the Equatorial Pacific. Normally this means close to average rainfall for the state. That would certainly be welcome but I have my doubts that this is going to happen.
Both the European (ECMWF) and the U.S. Models (GFS) are hinting that a Tropical Storm could potentially develop in the Gulf of Mexico late this upcoming week. Each line on the ECMWF's forecast graphic from last night is a potential track should one develop. Time to pay attention to the Gulf.
Once again scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms have fired up along and east of the dry draped across West Texas. This past week has been very active for severe thunderstorms in West Texas. Many reports of large to very large hail and tornadoes have been reported. Many reports of golf ball to softball size hail have been reported in the past week.
A mid and upper-level trough of low pressure is located over the area this afternoon and by sunset Memorial Day a closed low may try and develop over West Texas. Northerly winds aloft on the backside of this trough/low will drive a strong late-season cold front southward and into the local area by sunrise Monday morning.
After seeing our daytime highs climb up into the upper 90's to the low 100's for the past couple of weeks Monday will be somewhat of a shocker as we struggle to reach 70. Locally these highs will be some 15 to 25 degrees below normal on Monday. Overcast skies with low clouds will add to the late May gloom.
NWS NDFD Forecast Low Temperatures.
Tuesday Morning.
Low temperatures Tuesday morning in the cooler air mass behind the front will be rather chilly for late May with readings locally in the 40's to low 50's.
NWS NDFD Rainfall Totals.
Valid Tonight Through 6 AM MDT Tuesday.
Strong gusty northerly winds will accompany the frontal passage Monday morning along with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Locally here in SE NM we have a 20% to 30% chance of getting wet mainly early Monday morning through mid-afternoon. Rainfall total forecasts are not at that impressive though.
An impressive total of 159 new daily record high temperatures was either tied or broken between April 25th and May 12th. Roswell and Jal top the list with both stations reaching 102ºF.
There were 7 new all-time monthly high temperatures either tied or broken from April 25th through May 12th.
On May 3rd the Carlsbad Climate Co-Op Station recorded an overnight low temperature of only 73ºF. This beats the previous record warm minimum temperature for the date of 70ºF last set in 1930. All total there were 85 total new daily record daily high minimum temperatures that were either tied or broken from April 25 through May 12 in New Mexico.
Nine new monthly all-time new high minimum temperatures were established April 25th through May 12th.
Actually yes it can. Don't forget volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, tsunamis, drought, tornadoes, war, famines, and solar flares. Not that I want to see any of these but the way things are going you never know. Hang on!
Wild is a good way to describe the weather these days. As I write this my thermometer says its 90ºF outside here in Carlsbad, NM. That's relatively cool compared to tomorrow's (Thurday's) forecast high of 103ºF.
No worries because yet another late-season cold front will plow southward down the eastern plains of New Mexico Thursday afternoon entering the local area just before sunset. Highs on Friday behind the front are forecast locally to be in the low to mid 70's. Saturday will be near 80ºF and Sunday the mid to upper 80's. Rain? Nope.
While daily record high temperatures have been tied or broken in our local area the past four days (104º yesterday in Midland) a late-season freeze is forecast for our northern and northeastern neighbors this weekend. An unbelievably strong closed low at about 17,000' above sea level is forecast to be centered over western New York State by Saturday morning. A cold northerly and northwesterly surface flow behind a couple of cold fronts will drag unusually cold air south into the northern and northeastern U.S. giving many areas a late-season freeze. Adding to the farming woes in those areas.
A cold front has moved south through the local area early this morning. Much cooler today behind this front with highs in the mid 70's to near 80 forecast. Strong northeasterly winds sustained at around 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50-55 mph are forecast locally with A Wind Advisory in effect for Eddy and Lea Counties as well as across parts of West Texas and Southern New Mexico. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains for northeasterly winds sustained at 35 to 50 mph with gusts near 65 mph.
A quick warm-up will commence beginning Wednesday. Thursday's forecast high for Carlsbad is 103º. Another cold front on Friday knocks our highs back down to near 80º. Mother nature is having issues this spring.
Note that the U.S. has roughly one-third of the world's reported cases of COVID-19. Our death rate versus the infection rate is about 6%. The recovery rate in the U.S. is about 15%. Roughly 82% of the people who have been infected in the U.S. are still listed in the "Active Category." Meaning they are either sick or asymptomatic.
America's deadliest flu season (other than the Spanish Flu) was in 1957 when some 116,000 died and in 1967 when 100,000 died. In all probability, there is a real possibility that by the end of this year the total number of deaths from COVID-19 could exceed these years.
Current CDC 2019-2020 seasonal flu estimates put the number of illnesses in the 39,000,000 to 56,000,000 range (not including COVID-19). There have been some 410,000 to 740,000 hospitalizations in the U.S. from this season's flu outbreak. With some 24,000 to 62,000 deaths from the flu this season.
Remember we are only in the beginning stages of this Pandemic. This is not the end of this Pandemic. It's not over just because we are tired of being cooped up, tired of what it's done to our lives and nation, and just tired of all of it and want our lives to return to normal.
It is widely being reported that we have "flattened the curve" concerning this virus. This is true when you look at the number of new cases being reported daily and other factors. But this is only the beginning....round one so to speak. Pandemics last on average for a couple of years, some are shorter in duration, others are longer. Current thinking (which changes often) is that the COVID-19 Pandemic will last about two years.
COVID-19 ranks (to date) as history's 15th deadliest pandemic. Remember we haven't seen the end of this yet and are still in the early phases. This deadly virus is in the process of mutating. One of the burning questions in scientists and virologists' minds is will it mutate into a stronger and much more deadly state later this year.
The Black Death (Bubonic Plaque) 1347-1351 killed an estimated 200 million people mostly in Europe. This was the Deadliest Pandemic in known history. Interestingly enough it occurred during the Wolf Solar Minimum (1280-1350). 30%-50% of Europe's population was wiped out and it took 200 years for the population of the continent to recover.
Second, on the list is the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918-1920 which according to updated modern-day estimates killed some 50 to 100 million people worldwide. Like COVID-19 the Spanish Flu initially killed far fewer people than was projected during the spring and summer of 1918. The virus mutated and during the late summer of 1919 into the early spring of 1919 it spread across the world with vengeance killing millions. Some 500 million people were infected.
Round 1 - America Goes Back To Work.
America is in revolt. People all across the nation have had enough of their local and state instituted quarantines. Our economy has been wrecked in ways that hardly seem possible. Some 38 million people have lost their jobs. Food lines are cropping up everywhere. Economic rescue packages offered by the Federal Government are now in the multi-trillion range pushing our National Debt to $24,942,910,000,000! Unfunded liabilities are not up to an astonishing $147 trillion.
A week ago the Stock Markert saw West Texas Crude Oil crash to a never before heard of negative $38 dollars a barrel. A bottle of water cost more than a barrel of oil for a few days. Today's value has risen to $19 a barrel. At this price, nobody in this business makes more and the net result is companies go out of business and people lose their jobs. Hundreds of Oil Companies are either going bankrupt or fixing too. Not just Oil Companies either. Businesses nationwide have been destroyed...many never to recover. This isn't just confined to America. This is worldwide.
As America begins the painful process of coming out of hiding and going back to work there will be consequences. We've been warned of this from President Trump on down the line. As more and more of us go back to work, get out in public, we will spread COVID-19. That is the simple truth. In doing this more people will get sick, and some will die. There simply is no way around this no matter how careful we try and be.
Worldwide there is a raging debate on whether or not "herd mentality" is the cure for this virus. Many believe so. In that, the only way to stop this virus is to expose the majority of the world's population to it so it has nowhere to go. It runs its course and its done.
We've never dealt with this virus before so hard questions remain with unknown answers. If America and the rest of the world do not go back to work, our nation, and nations everywhere will go bankrupt. America stands on the edge of an economic depression, the edge of total economic ruin. We have to open up, we have to go back to work, we have to go back out into the public and interact. Our nation, our future, our survival dictates this.
Marches on state capitals marches in the streets are becoming more common daily. Americans everywhere are extremely angry (rightfully so) for having their individual freedoms and rights trampled underfoot by rouge Leftist Democratic and Rino Republican Governors (Deep State). Our Constitution and fundamental rights under the Bill of Rights are under attack. If you have any doubts whatsoever are the power-hungry nature of the Left then just take a look around at how they are reacting to this Pandemic. Not only is their true nature coming out but also their true intentions.
These tyrants are using this pandemic and national crisis to undermine President Trump and the working American at every turn. Remember their slogan-
"Never Let A Good Crisis Go To Waste."
Reality in America and much of the world is this - "Damn If We Do, Damned If We Don't".
Round 2 - What Is Next?
Honestly, nobody knows for certain. History tells us much and gives us many lessons and examples but at the end of the day, we are still in uncharted territory. People everywhere have shifted their thinking from how dangerous this virus is to we have to save our economy. They are not wrong either. But at what price is the burning question?
U.S. officials are investigating the origins of this virus. All roads point to China. The question is did they intentionally release this virus on the world? Did they retaliate against President Trump and the U.S. for our sanctions and Trade stipulations upon them? Or was this purely an accident at the Wuhan Lab? Did China intentionally intend to wreck the world's economies (in particular the Western World)?
Many are asking too whether or not the Far Leftist Democrats had a role in this. If not a direct role they certainly have dirty hands when it comes to publicly support the World Health Organization (WHO) and defending China. Their leading Presidental candidate "Joe Biden" has a long history of financial and political dealings with the Communist Chinese Government and their businesses. He is not the only either. Our own government is full of Congressmen and Congresswomen who through their own business and political dealings with the Chinese have made them millionaires.
If you have been paying attention lately you have noticed that all across America the Chinese are buying up American properties and businesses. They hold our national debt. If we go into a Depression and ask for a massive load to bail us out guess who would do this...the Communist Chinese. How did this happen? Over the past 40 years most recently as more and more of America's businesses were outsourced overseas...especially to China. Who did this? American politicians and wealthy businessmen and businesswomen.
Meanwhile, China is becoming increasingly more aggressive in the South China Sea and Southeast Asia. This poses serious regional and worldwide threats to free-standing countries. Let's not forget the Middle East either which is in a constant state of upheaval. In particular Iran.
Fallout From COVID-19 - Famine.
Famine is cropping its ugly head up all over the world particularly on the African continent. Clouds of locusts have spread across the Middle East and now Africa. Famers across America and elsewhere are in trouble due to the fallout from COVID-19. They were already in trouble before COVID-19 begin its rampage across the world. The government is offering them billions in relief packages. Packing plants across America have shutdown because hundreds of their workers have become infected with this deadly virus.
Officials are warning of meat shortages nationwide. President Trump signed an executive order a couple of days ago to help stay this problem. America must protect her farmers and ranchers if they don't want to starve.
Global Cooling & Grand Solar Minimums? Some believe that roughly every 100 years the planet is hit by some type of pandemic or plaque. Let's take a look at some of these. 1720 -The Great Plague Of Marseille. In 1720, there was the last large-scale bubonic plague pandemic, also called the great plague of Marseille. Indeed the plague hit the Europe for the first time in 1331. In 1720, Yersinia pestis(the bacteria, it is assumed that the bacteria are spread by flies infected with this bacteria.) arrived at the port of Marseille, France from the Levant upon the merchant ship Grand-Saint-Antoine. The vessel had departed from Sidon in Lebanon, having previously called at Smyrna, Tripoli, and plague-ridden Cyprus. A Turkish passenger was the first to be infected and soon died, followed by several crew members and the ship’s surgeon. The ship was refused entry to the port of Livorno. When the ship landed in Mrselille, everybody took into quarantine although the outbreak couldn’t be stopped. This is the last major scale pandemic in Europe caused by plague. Records show that the bacteria killed around 100,000 people in Marseille. 1820 - The Cholera Pandemic. The first records of a cholera pandemic took place in 1820, which took place in Asia, in the countries of Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines. In 1820, more than 100,000 deaths were recorded in Asia due to this bacterium. The pandemic is said to have started with people who drank water from lakes contaminated with this bacteria. 1918-1920 - The Spanish Flu. The Spanish fluoccurred 100 years ago, started in 1918 and ended in December, 1920. Since the flu infected people during the world war 1, the European leaders censored the death tolls and severity. It contributed the deterioration of the pandemic. Although the name is Spanish flu, the origin of this flu is not certain. The name indicates that it has got enough media coverage in Spain because of the illness of King Alfonso by this flu. This flu was one of two H1N1 flu viruses which had undergone a genetic mutation, which made it much more dangerous than the virus normal. This virus infected 500 million people and killed an estimated 17 million to 50 million 50 to 100 million people. Some sources believe that the number can be as high as 100 million. This pandemic was the deadliest in history.
2019-2020 - COVID-19. Ongoing.
There are indications that the sun may play a role in this. One question I have is that during Solar Minimums, especially Grand Solar Minimums, does the low brightness of the sun allow these viruses and bacteria to spread amongst humans more readily? This combined with the fact that we tend to stay inside and closer together more often during colder weather. This certainly has been considered a factor during The Black Death (Bubonic Plaque) 1347-1351 that killed an estimated 200 million people mostly in Europe. This was the Deadliest Pandemic in known history. Interestingly enough it occurred during the Wolf Solar Minimum (1280-1350) during the Last Little Ice Age. Our sun has dimmed during our current Solar Minimum and is forecast to continue doing so as we go deeper into this cycle. Many reputable scientists and climatologists still believe we have entered the beginning phase of another Solar Grand Minimum. Take a look at the number of people of who died from pandemics and plagues during the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715). During the Last Little Ice Age (1300 -1850) it is estimated that some 300+ million people worldwide died from varying Pandemics, Plagues, diseases, and the cold. The Little Ice Age is believed to have been caused by a decrease in solar brightness during the Grand Solar Minimums at the time, a lack of sunspot activity, changes in the earth's axis and rotational tilt, and an increase in volcanic activity. I've written a couple of blogs about this subject and you can read them via the links below:
AGW Climate Change Crowd & Mainstream Media Versus What Really Is Coming With A Grand Solar Minimum & Global Cooling!
Forecast For Solar Cycle 25 - By James A. Marusek.
Little Ice Age - (1350 - 1850). Will It Happen Again In Our Lifetime?
Fake Weather News & Its Associated Hype Is Out Of Control!
Summary - This Isn't Over.
In summary, these are scary times we live in. Nobody knows for sure the outcome of COVID-19. In all likelihood, we are just in the beginning phases of this Global Pandemic. No matter what we do or don't do there is going to be much more suffering and heartache and death. Directly from the effects of the virus now and to come and the lingering after-effects upon our economy and the world's economy.
A political firestorm ranges in America and this will not go away either. Most of us are sick and tired of the corrupt politicians taking more and more of our liberties away from us all the while becoming more powerful and richer at our expense. Donald Trump was elected to stop this and give us back our country. He has actively been trying to drain the Swamp or Sewer in Washington, D.C. as some are now calling the foul political mess that is destroying our country. So far he has made good on his promises to do so but it has come with a cost. Hilliary Clinton and the Far Left, as well as the Rino, 's in the Republican Party hate him with a vengeance, and there is no telling what they are capable of doing to try and stop him. We the people elected him to give us our country back and to drain the swamp. That's the last thing on this earth these corrupt and extremely powerful people want to see happen. Since Woodrow Wilson was President in 1918 there has been a long-standing plan to turn America into a Socialist if not Communist nation. Anyone that cannot see this has not been paying attention. No doubt that the current political unrest growing in America daily will carry over to the elections this November. I find it highly ironic but not surprising that Joe Biden has become the Democrats nominee for President. Do not be surprised if Hillary Clinton is chosen as his Vice President. Biden with all of his ties with China and Hillary will her ties too. God help us if these evil people get elected.
We live in dangerous times. The Far Left knows it is losing the political battle for the fight for America's soul. Everything they have thrown at Donal Trump has either backfired or blew up in their faces. Peel back the layers of deception and Id be willing to bet that America's most corrupt politicians and wealthy businessmen and women conspired together with China to break our country. They've come dangerously close too. One of my fears is that we the people are nothing more than pawns in their quest to steal our nation away from us. These people are ruthless enough to be willing to kill thousands if not millions of us, as well as across the world to see their goal of having a New World Order accomplished. Do any of you seriously believe that Communist China would not be willing to do the same? Ask yourself this question. Why did China lie about COVID-19? Why in January at the beginning of this Pandemic did they close their nation's borders to all outsiders but allowed millions to fly out and fan out across the world. Many of those apparently infected with or carrying COVID-19.
What If? We may have been set up at home too. Hundreds of thousands of Americans are furious and are out in the streets across America marching and protesting against what is happening to us. Rightfully so. I agree totally. But are we making the mistake of our lives in doing so? What if this was the intention of China and the powers to be in the first place? To get as many as us as possible to do this very thing, knowing full well that we will be the ones to spread this deadly virus to every corner of the nation. What if they know in time that this virus is going to mutate into something far more dangerous and awful (just like the Spanish Flu in 1918) than we can imagine. What if they have baited us by drawing us out to defend our rights - but instead ending up killing many many more of us this summer, fall, or winter in doing so. Every single expert, virologist, doctor, including the CDC all admit that this virus will reappear in full force this summer, fall, or winter. The question is how bad will it be? Notice too that the states that have Democratic Governors are the ones who want to continue the quarantines deep into the summer or maybe further. Knowing full well the damage to those states economies and lives this will cause. How do you take over a nation without firing a shot...Biological Warfare is a pretty sure way of doing so. That is exactly what this is more and more each day.
Changes In Our Weather/Planet Are Coming! As the planet continues to descend into another Grand Solar Minimum we will see radical changes in our weather. As the planet cools, the jet stream will become stronger and more active. I believe that we enter another Maunder type Solar Minimum and possibly another Little Ice Age our weather we become highly chaotic. This will be something new to the modern world but is nothing more than a natural process that has carried out over thousands if not millions of years. Its nature's way. Weather and climate occur in cycles. Dramatic changes are coming and those changes will likely shock the world over the next 50 to 100 years. Devastating earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are coming in the near future. Many in the U.S. are not familiar with the New Madrid Earthquakes that ravished the Mississipi River Valley and surrounding areas from Shockingly so, the Far Left in a new Youtube Video produced by none other than Michael Moore himself and directed by Jeff Gibbs, acknowledge that the Green Movement to save us all was a mistake. Fascinating hardly describes this video. Pandemics, plagues, diseases, famine/starvation, and extreme cold ravaged the planet during the Last Little Ice Age. This is exactly what we are beginning to see happen to our world. Stay tuned for more of this to come and many more human tragedies to come! Books To Read: The Third Horseman.
