Major Long-Duration Winter Storm To Impact New Mexico & Nearby Areas!

Sierra Blanca Peak.

Sunday, January 30, 2022.

Major Long Duration Winter Storm To Impact New Mexico & Nearby Areas!

Canadian (GEM) 500 Mb (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Wednesday.

As has been the case for the past couple of days the computer forecast models are still struggling in trying to resolve the track, speed, and location of the 500 millibar winter storm set to impact a large swath of the region Tuesday into Saturday. Several models like the Candian above continue to hint at a closed low forming over the area Wednesday into Thursday. This would prolong the snowfall with more widespread heavier amounts. But overall there remain a lot of differences yet to be resolved which will have an impact on our local forecasts...possibly significant. So be prepared to see changes in our local forecasts.

Surface Map Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Wednesday.

A bitterly cold Siberian airmass is slated to slide into most of New Mexico beginning Tuesday across the northeastern plains of New Mexico and the nearby Texas Panhandle. Just how far south and west and how soon it arrives is still somewhat up in the air. Some of the models bring it southward and westward much faster than what is currently forecast. This is important because many areas of the state and nearby locations will plunge below freezing and stay there until Saturday once the colder airmass arrives.

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temps.

Tuesday.

Wednesday.

NWS NDFD Forecast Low Temperatures Thursday.

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperatures.

Thursday.

Once we drop down below freezing (areawide) it now appears that we won't climb back up above freezing until Saturday afternoon. The forecast high and low temperatures graphic maps above may even be a little on the warm side in some locations. If the snowfall is heavier and more widespread than current thinking indicates, then many locations in New Mexico and nearby West Texas could easily see low temperatures Thursday and Friday mornings below zero. 

Dangerous Life-Threatening Wind Chill Temperatures!

Wind Chill Forecasts.

Thursday Morning.

NWS Albuquerque Travel Impact Forecasts.

Current forecasts call for temperatures to bottom out in the teens to near 20-degrees Thursday morning. Combine this with northeasterly to easterly winds gusting up 25-35 mph behind the arctic cold front late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and widespread wind chill readings of -5ºF to -20ºF will occur across most of New Mexico and West Texas.

Life-threatening conditions will occur when combined with the snow, heavy snow, blowing and drifting snow, temperatures in the teens or colder, and wind chill temperatures as low as -15ºF to -20ºF. Especially if you become stranded upon local and area highways and interstates and are exposed to the elements with no shelter. 

Preparations should be made now to protect livestock and pets as well as water pipes and faucets. 

Area Snowfall Forecasts.

NWS NDFD Forecast Storm Total Snowfall Amounts.

(From Tuesday - Thursday Afternoon).

NWS Albuquerque Forecast Storm Total Snowfall Amounts.

NWS Midland Forecast Storm Total Snowfall Amounts.

NWS El Paso Forecast Storm Total Snowfall Amounts.

NWS Midland Forecast Ice Accumulation Amounts.

Key Points To Remember.

Current Winter Storm Watches/Warnings In Effect.

1. A Widespread Major Long Duration Winter Storm is forecast areawide that will be accompanied by bitterly cold temperatures and dangerously low wind chill temperatures (-5ºF to -20ºF). A few locations may experience near-blizzard to blizzard conditions at times late Wednesday night into Thursday night...especially over and near the mountains.

2. Moderate to heavy snow is forecast for many areas. Some mountain locations may measure storm total snowfall amounts by the feet not inches. Some areas across Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas may see a wintry mix of rain and freezing rain before transitioning over to all snow Wednesday night into Thursday.

3. Many locations may not see the thermometer rise above freezing from Wednesday/Wednesday night into Saturday afternoon. Depending upon the snowfall/snow cover and how soon our skies clear, many locations could record low temperatures below zero in the Thursday through Saturday morning time frame. Some mountain communities may see readings in the -20ºF or colder range. 

4. Life-threatening conditions will develop on many of New Mexico's and the nearby Texas Panhandle and West Texas highways and roads Wednesday night into Friday. Due to snow, heavy snow, blowing and drifting snow, icy and slick highways and roads, near-zero visibilities in whiteout conditions. Road closures are likely in many areas and some may be widespread. 

5. Rescue may be next to impossible for a time in some of the harder impacted areas until the storm clears. New Mexico has a long history of stranded motorists on state highways and roadways during storms of this magnitude.

6. Power outages will be possible in some areas due to the heavy snow, ice accumulations, and strong winds.

7. Livestock exposed to the weather elements without shelter will be at risk. This includes local dairies in Southeastern New Mexico. Remember to protect your pets and water pipes.

8. Be prepared for changing weather conditions and forecasts as more information becomes available Tuesday into Wednesday concerning this dangerous winter storm. Additional Winter Storm Watches, Warnings, and Advisories will likely be issued for the state and nearby areas.

9. Please stay abreast of all of our local forecasts, watches, warnings, and advisories that are being issued by our regional National Weather Service Offices listed below. Click on the links to visit their web pages.

10. Now is the time to prepare and stock up on necessary supplies and other necessities. 

NWS Midland

NWS El Paso

NWS Lubbock

NWS Amarillo

NWS Albuquerque

New Mexico Road Conditions.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

First Look At Next Weeks Cold & Winter Storm.

Surface Map Forecast.

Valid Next Wednesday.

GEM 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Wednesday, February 2, 2022.

 Computer Model Storm Total Snowfall Forecasts.

(Next Wednesday Through Friday).

Canadian Model (GEM).

U.S. Model (GFS).

European Model (ECMWF).

German Model (ICON).

National Blend Of Models (NBM).

Canadian Model (GEM) Temperature Forecasts.

(At 5 AM MST Saturday, February 5, 2022).

U.S. Model (GFS) Wind Chill Forecast.

(Thursday Morning At 5 AM MST).

Canadian Model (GEM) 10-Day Temperature Forecasts.

Albuquerque.

Santa Fe.

Clovis.

Roswell.

Carlsbad.

Sierra Blanca Regional Airport.

Local National Weather Service Office Outlooks.

Coldest/Strongest Winter Storm This Season Next Week?

Computer forecast models this morning were relatively close to one another considering their forecasts for a winter storm to impact the state and region next week. As always the models have their differences in the strength, timing, and track of the storm but all agree that winter rules next our weather next week. We are still 5 days away from the beginning of the storm's impacts locally but it's time to start talking about its potential impacts...which could be significant. I chose the Canadian (GEM) model for today's blog. It is pretty close to the European (ECMWF) and the U.S. (GFS) model forecasts...but the coldest of the three. 

Points To Consider For Next Weeks Potential Winter Weather.

1. The long-wave trough of low pressure may or may not crave out a closed low over the Four Corners area towards the middle to end of next week. This could prolong and increase the precipitation (snow) areawide if it does. It would also mean more of a widespread and heavier snow event. If the storm sweeps across the area as a trough of low pressure...this would mean less snow ending sooner and not as widespread.

2. An Arctic airmass associated with the storm could bring the coldest temperatures of the winter for much of the region. With the potential for a multiday subfreezing temperature event to develop Wednesday into Saturday (depending upon where you live) if the Canadian model forecasts are correct. The Canadian model hints at single-digit lows across much of New Mexico's lower elevations late next week. With below zero readings across most mountainous areas. This remains subject to change and is not written in stone at this time.

3. Very cold temperatures along with dangerous wind chill temperatures look fairly certain early on (Thursday morning into the day). There is a chance that the cold (especially if it is several days in occurrence) may have a bigger weather story with a more significant impact upon the region than the snow. Either way, our regional weather will change significantly next week towards much colder and stormier.

4. The U.S. GFS model forecasts brutal wind chill temperatures Thursday morning for all of the region. Ranging from near zero in the Southeastern Plains of New Mexico to -10ºF to -20ºF over the Northeastern and Eastern Plains, and parts of the Central mountain chain. As well as over the Texas Panhandle and South Plains.

5. At this early stage all four of the long-range forecast models (GFS, ECMWF, GEM, ICON) forecast a widespread snow event for the Four Corners area into Texas Wednesday into Friday. Some areas could see heavy snow, especially in the mountains. Heavy snow is not out of the question, especially for the state's mountains. But pinpointing how much and where now is not possible now. 

6. Much will change in the model forecasts as we head into next week. There remains a great deal of uncertainty concerning the details of next week's cold weather and the potential for a winter storm. The forecast models are a guide we use to forecast these events. This is the first look. Just know that for now there is a reasonable chance of our weather turning much colder, with the chance for some snow over most of the area from Wednesday into perhaps Friday. Keep abreast of all of your local forecasts concerning next week's potential storm. Our local National Weather Service forecasts, watches, warnings, current conditions, radar, satellite and much more are available on my main weather web page...Welcome To Southeast New Mexico Weather. 

7. At this early stage the model forecasts have some semblance in their forecasts to the bitterly cold arctic outbreak that hammered the region last February. I'm not saying at this time that this storm will be as bad or as cold as last year's. But there are some similarities in the model forecasts that bear watching to see how this one pans out. See my blog posts from last year about this event.

FEBRUARY 12-19, 2021 HISTORIC WINTER STORM SUMMARY #1.

FEBRUARY 12-19, 2021 HISTORIC WINTER STORM SUMMARY #2.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Historic Major Winter Storm For Southern New England Tonight Into Saturday!

A fascinating Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) from the Norton/Boston, MA National Weather Service Forecast Office this afternoon. You just don't see this very often. I want so bad to be there. Blizzard Warnings!

Quote-

"FXUS61 KBOX 282125

AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA

425 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front moves through the region this afternoon, possibly

accompanied by a few snow showers or flurries. A historic major

winter storm will impact much of southern New England Saturday

into Saturday evening, bringing heavy snow, blizzard conditions

to the much of southeastern New England, and possibly damaging

winds and coastal flooding. Drier weather returns with below

normal temperatures Sunday before a warm up next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...

Quiet before the storm through this evening. So be sure to take

advantage to make any pre-storm preparation. There are some flurries or scattered light snow showers associated with a weak disturbance.

A cold front moves across southern New England this evening with

temperatures slowly falling into the mid 20s to low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Highlights...

* We now have high confidence in a historic major winter storm for

eastern New England. Widespread 1 to 2 ft snowfall with localized

3 ft is likely for eastern MA and RI along with blizzard

conditions.

* Snowfall rates could reach 2 to 4 inches per hour at times during

the day on Saturday with possibility of thundersnow across eastern MA and RI.

* In addition to potential historical snowfall, strong winds up to

hurricane force especially along the coast will lead to bitterly

cold wind chills on Saturday along with minor to moderate coastal

flooding.

Details...

Heavy snowfall/Extreme snowfall rates...

Models have now come into consensus for a historical blizzard to

impact eastern southern New England. Explosive cyclogenesis will

occur off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight, with an impressive 40 mb

pressure drop in 24 hours as a surface low tracks from east of the

Carolinas to the 70W/40N benchmark. For reference, a bomb cyclone`s criteria is a drop of 24 mb in 24 hours. At this point within 24 hours of the storm, we are now in the time frame where the NAM generally performs well during an East Coast cyclogenesis event.

We now have high confidence in exceptional to extreme snowfall rates with the possibility for thundersnow across eastern MA and RI.

Somewhat lower confidence in the exact placement of the heaviest

band, however. Both NAM and GFS Bufkit soundings show over 50 units of omega coinciding with the favorable snow growth region. Given that a double-barrel low could develop with the potential for an eye-like feature at some point, wherever the mesoscale snow band sets up could see 2 to 4 inches per hour snowfall rates with an outside chance for 5 inches per hour especially when on the backside of the system. If a deformation band can persist when the arctic air arrives later in the day, snow to liquid ratios (SLRs) could be as high as 20-25 to 1. Therefore, we felt confident enough in this

forecast package to introduce an area of 24 to 30 inches storm total snowfall. It is possible that this band could set up further west,

or there may be two bands of heavy snow with lesser amounts in

between. Either way, we are confident enough to go with a Blizzard

Warning for the potential of blowing and drifting snow with near

zero visibility at times across much of eastern MA and RI.

Strong winds/Blowing snow...

With 925mb winds at 65-70 kts or 4 to 5 standard deviations above

normal according to GEFS and NAEFS situational awareness table and combined with excellent mixing, there will be hurricane-force wind gusts at times along the immediate coast and 50-60 mph gusts further inland. This will translate to widespread drifting and blowing of snow with localized snow drifts of up to 4 ft or higher. With temperatures in the teens to low 20s, we have high confidence in rather widespread blizzard conditions across eastern MA and RI, including the Providence to Boston corridor. Based on the latest guidance trends, it is possible that the I-95 or even the I-495 corridor ends up with a secondary local snowfall maxima. The silver lining is that because we are dealing with dry powdery fluff, there is less of a concern for snow loading issues except for parts of the Outer Cape and Nantucket due to the coastal front.

Power outage potential looks to be highest across Cape/Islands,

where the warmer temps would lead to heavier and wetter snow and consequently higher snow loading. With 70 mph winds, power outages will be likely.

There is somewhat lower confidence how far west the heavy snow

overspreads and this is something that we cannot be entirely sure

until the mesoscale band sets up as the storm gets going tomorrow

morning. While we do think that Plymouth county is still going to

end up with one of the highest totals for this storm, however, the

SLRs may be affected by the Dendritic Growth Zone`s less than ideal coincidence with the best omega resulting in riming and the fact that the hurricane-force gusts could break up dendrites.

Temperatures...

We will start the day off in the teens across north and west of the

I-95 corridor with some uncertainty how far inland the coastal front

makes. Temp will be right around or just above freezing along and

east of the coastal front. But this coastal front will collapse

eastward through late morning into the afternoon. In other words,

the biggest risk for heavy, wet snow will be across Cape Cod and the Islands prior to the collapse of the coastal front. Taking into

account the strong winds, wind chill values will be between +5 to -

10F across the interior and 0 to +10F closer to the coast. So not

quite Wind Chill Advisory criteria, but given the potential for near

white-out conditions at times, again, don`t venture out if at all

possible because it could become a life-threatening situation.

Coastal flooding...

See coastal flooding section for discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Highlights...

* Relatively quiet with increasingly mild weather to follow through

most of next week.

Low pressure moves off into the Maritimes Sunday, leaving southern New England in a diminishing westerly flow. Mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to recover some, but with fresh snow cover across most of our region, expecting it will be a struggle just to reach the 20s. High pressure should pass us by Tuesday, leading to a warming trend from mid-week into next Friday.

Next chance for some wet weather comes around Wednesday with an approaching front. This front likely stalls to our west, potentially

providing a path for a low pressure to travel to our west late next

week. Looking more like rain at this time, but did not pay too much

attention to the details of a Day 6-7 forecast with the impending

storm.

&&"

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

First Ice Storm Of The Season Late Tonight Into Wednesday.

Next Round Of Winter Weather Tonight Into Wednesday.

RAP 500 MB Analysis.

Valid At 1 PM MST Tuesday.

ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 11 AM MST Wednesday.

Looking at the 18,000' level (500 Millibars) of the atmosphere this Tuesday afternoon shows that a fairly strong and cold mid-upper level storm was centered over far northwestern Arizona as of 1 PM MST. This next inbound winter storm is forecast to continue moving southeast tonight into Wednesday morning. By around noontime tomorrow it is forecast to be located near Ruidoso. The storm is then forecast to swing east out of the state into the Texas Panhandle by sunset.

Surface Map & Precipitation Type Forecast.

Valid Tonight.

Valid Wednesday.

Current Temperatures At 3 PM MST.

Current Wind Chill Temperatures At 3 PM MST.

Temperatures Drop Tonight & Won't Recover Wednesday!

Arctic air has entered far northeastern New Mexico as of 3 PM MST this Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures at Raton and Clayton were near freezing with wind chills in the teens. This colder air will spread southward and westward tonight.

Northeasterly to easterly winds will develop overnight into Wednesday. Which combined with temps near to below freezing across the area will produce wind chill readings in the single digits in the mountains and parts of Eastern and Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas. Other locations will see wind chill readings in the teens to near 20ºF.

Our high temperatures here in Southeastern New Mexico for tomorrow (Wednesday) will occur at or around midnight tonight. Our afternoon highs will hover around freezing all day Wednesday with little change in the thermometer expected. This after highs this afternoon in the low 60's.

NWS NDFD Forecast Low Temperatures Tonight.

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperatures Wednesday.

Wind Chill Temperature Forecasts Tonight Into Wednesday.

NWS NDFD Storm Total Snowfall Amounts.

NWS Midland Ice Accumulation Forecast.

NAM Precipitation Type Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Wednesday Morning.

Valid At 11 AM MST Wednesday Morning.

Black Ice On Area Roadways Will Make Travel Dangerous!

A wintry mix of precipitation is forecast for the mountains and area late tonight into Wednesday afternoon. Light rain and or light drizzle will change over to light freezing rain and light freezing drizzle early Wednesday morning locally. At times we may see a combination of sleet and snow mixing in with the freezing rain and drizzle. Current forecasts are calling for an inch of snow or less across the Southeastern Plains.

The biggest concern will be the freezing rain and freezing drizzle combined with areas of freezing fog which will lead to black ice formation on area roads. Add the snow on top of the ice and problems on local roadways will develop. Especially on bridges and overpasses. Exposed surfaces will also glaze over with ice accumulations of less than a tenth of an inch forecast currently (as of 3 PM MST Tuesday).

Light freezing drizzle and light freezing rain combined with freezing fog is also forecast for the Sacramento, Capitan, and Guadalupe mountains late tonight into Wednesday. Light snow will also mix in with the freezing precipitation at times making for dangerous driving conditions on local roads. Current forecasts do not call for significant snowfall amounts in the mountains. An inch or so will be possible.

Please Visit The Albuquerque National Weather Service Web Page For The Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisories For Northeastern And North Central New Mexico.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
150 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ271>274-278-261100-
/O.NEW.KMAF.WW.Y.0002.220126T0800Z-220126T2000Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-
Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-
Including the cities of Queen, Artesia, Carlsbad, Tatum, Hobbs,
Lovington, Eunice, Jal, Pine Springs, Van Horn, Pecos, and Alpine
150 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022 /1250 PM MST Tue Jan 25 2022/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM CST /1 AM MST/ TO
2 PM CST /1 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed wintry precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of less than one inch. Ice accumulations up to .06
  inch.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast New Mexico, The Guadalupe and
  Delaware Mountains, Van Horn area, Davis Mountain Foothills
  around Kent.

* WHEN...From 2 AM CST /1 AM MST/ to 2 PM CST /1 PM MST/
  Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and low visibility.
  The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Interstate 10 and 20 split, Kent, Van Horn, Guadalupe
  Pass, Queen, and the Hope areas are of most concern.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

In New Mexico, the latest road conditions can be obtained by
calling 800-432-4269. In Texas, the latest road conditions can be
obtained by calling 800-452-9292.

&&

$$

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!