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Showing posts from November, 2021

Back To Boring & Tranquil Weather.

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NWS HRAP 3-Day Rainfall Totals. (Nov 25 -Nov 28, 2021). NWS HRAP 3-Day Snowfall Totals. (Nov 25 -Nov 28, 2021). Weather Underground 24-Hour Rainfall Totals. (Nov 27 - Nov 28, 2021). CoCoRaHS 3-Day Rainfall Totals. (Nov 25 -Nov 28, 2021). CoCoRaHS 3-Day Snowfall Totals. (Nov 25 -Nov 28, 2021). GFS 10-Day High/Low-Temperature Forecasts.

Round Two Tonight Into Saturday - Lowland Rain Showers & High Mountain Snow.

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8:30 AM MST. November 26, 2021. Ski Apache West Of Ruidoso, NM. Second Phase Of Our Storm Tonight Into Saturday. GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 11 AM MST Saturday. NWS NDFD Precipitation Forecast. Valid Today Through 5 PM MST Sunday. NWS NDFD Precipitation Forecast. Valid Today Through 5 PM MST Sunday. Lowland Rain Showers & High Mtn Snow. Round two of our so-called winter storm comes tonight into Saturday. Cloudcroft and Ski Apache saw a couple inches of snow out of round one that ended yesterday morning. Clouds will increase this afternoon as the closed mid-level low centered over central Baja this morning moves northeastward towards the area. This low is warm so to speak for this time of the year so snow levels are going to be high tonight into Saturday, generally at or around 8,000'. Another couple of inches of new snow appear likely in the Sunspot, Cloudcroft, and Ski Apache areas.  Lowland rain showers will develop tonight and spread northeastward over

Update On Our Inbound Storm.

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Snapshot At 7:39 AM MST. Wednesday, November 24, 2021. Ski Apache West Of Ruidoso, NM. NWS MesoWest 24-Hour Reported Precipitation Totals. As Of 7 AM MST This Morning. New Mexico CoCoRaHS 24-Hour Precipitation Totals. As Of 7:30 AM MST This Morning. Satellite Images This Morning. GOES-16 Infrared Snapshot. At 6:41 AM MST. GOES-16 Sandwich Snapshot. At 7:21 AM MST. NM Intellecast Radar Snapshot. At 7:30 AM MST This Morning. Rain & Snow Impacting NM This Morning. Round one of our inbound winter storm is impacting parts of New Mexico this Wednesday morning. Decent rainfall totals are being reported in the Albuquerque and Santa Fe areas as of 7:30 AM MST. Rainfall totals in these areas are ranging from around a tenth of an inch up to three-tenths of an inch. Snow levels in New Mexico are high this morning and are generally 9,000' or higher. The snow level will lower this afternoon into Thanksgiving morning. Down to around 5,000' to 6,000' west of the Central Mountain Chain

Our Thanksgiving Weather Forecast.

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Water Vapor Satellite Snapshot. At 4:30 AM MST Tuesday, Nov 23, 2021. European (ECMWF) 500 Millibar (18,000') Wind Analysis. At Midnight Last Night Tuesday, Nov 23, 2021. Our Storm Pulling Moisture In From The Eastern Pacific. We can see that the subtropical jet stream is pulling mid and high-level moisture northeastward into the closed mid-level low circulation which was located southwest of San Diego early this morning. As this low moves eastward and phases with the long-wave trough of low pressure to its north, it will continue to pull this moisture northeastward into the Desert Southwest and our local area. Mid and high-level clouds will continue to stream across the area today into Wednesday night, thickening and lowering today into Wednesday. European (ECMWF) 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 5 PM MST Wednesday. European (ECMWF) 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 5 PM MST Thanksgiving. By sunset, Wednesday a large elongated mid-upper level long-wave tro

Update On Our Thanksgiving Storm.

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RTMA Temperatures. At 7:30 AM MST This Sunday Morning. Ice & Snow Cover. Cold & Snow Cover Increasing. Snow cover to our north in Canada and Alaska continues to increase. This will be important as we approach the beginning of the meteorological winter (December 1st) and beyond. Temperatures in western Alaska have already dipped down to the -45F range. As the cold and snow cover continues to build in this region the polar jet stream will occasionally dive southward into the U.S. this winter dragging winter storms and arctic outbreaks into the nation. Not all La Nina winters are the same. My thinking is that we will see some hefty arctic outbreaks this winter along with some decent winter storms here in SE NM and W TX. Update On Our Thanksgiving Storm. ECMWF 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 5 AM MST Thanksgiving Morning. A weak closed mid-upper low is forecast by the models to develop well west of San Diego today. Then strengthen as it is pulled eastward and southeas

Forecast Models Are Struggling With Our Thanksgiving Storm.

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US GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 5 PM MST Thanksgiving Day. German (ICON) 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 5 PM MST Thanksgiving Day. Japanese (JMA) 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 5 PM MST Thanksgiving Day. European (ECMWF)  500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 5 PM MST Thanksgiving Day. Canadian (GEM)  500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast. Forecast Models Are Struggling With Our Thanksgiving Storm. Disagreement in the computer model forecasts remains today's theme. This morning's run of the US GFS and German ICON forecast models are calling for the best chances of seeing meaningful precipitation from next week's potential winter storm. Both of these models develop a closed low over northwestern Mexico Thanksgiving at sunset. The GFS remains the wettest with its forecasts and is calling (at this time anyway) for decent rainfall totals at the lower elevations of the area and modest snowfall totals in the mountains. GFS

Winter Storm Just In Time For Thanksgiving?

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November 5, 2021. Carlsbad, New Mexico. Reported Low Temperatures This Morning. (As Of 7:30 AM MST). A cold front moved south through the area yesterday into last night bringing colder temperatures with it. After seeing high temps hitting record levels the past few days today's readings will be slightly below normal for the date. At sunrise this morning reported low temperatures across the area were chilly with a few single digit readings in the higher mountain valleys of northern New Mexico. Some of the coldest low temperatures of the season are occurring this morning. November Climate Data To-Date. My Davis Vantage Pro2 Plus (PWS). November Climate Data. Like October's readings, November has started off warmer than normal thus far. This may change beginning late next week, however. Current Snow/Ice Coverage. Seasonal Snowfall To-Date. Winter Storm Just In Time For Thanksgiving?

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