Saturday Ushers In The Beginning Of The Meteorological Fall With Goods News.

August 30th, 2018.

Argo/Hidalgo Gas Plant 21 Miles West Of Orla, Texas.

Summer Upper Air Pattern Fades As The Meteorological Fall Arrives.

ECMWF 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Saturday, September 1st, 2018.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Tuesday, September 4, 2018.

Our summer heat ridge (at the mid levels of the atmosphere or the 18,000' level) has shifted east to eastern third of the nation today. Meanwhile a trough of low pressure is digging southward from south-central Canada into the Desert Southwest. This mid-level trough is forecast to stick around through the first of next week. This will help knock our temps down and increase our chances for rain from tomorrow into the at least the middle of next week. Subtropical moisture from Mexico is forecast to spread northward into New Mexico during this time.

Week Long Rains Forecast?

ECMWF Forecast Storm Total Rainfall Amounts.

Valid Today Through Next Thursday Morning.

GFS Forecast Storm Total Rainfall Amounts.

Valid Today Through Next Thursday Morning.

GFS 10-Day Temp & Rainfall Forecast.

Carlsbad, New Mexico.

Today's 18Z run of the US GFS computer forecast model gets rather excited about rain across Southeastern New Mexico over the next week. It comes up with 4" for Carlsbad by next Thursday. The European (ECMWF) is less optimistic with that much rain...1.50" to 3.00" for most of the local area. 

Weather Prediction Centers (WPC) 7 Day Rainfall Forecast.

Valid Saturday Through Next Friday.

On board with the idea of widespread soaking rains is the WPC's model which comes up with 1.50" to nearly 2.50" over the entire local area. We will also need to be watching to see if a tropical system forms in the Gulf of Mexico next week which could add to the mix down the road. Remember that the model rainfall forecasts depicted above are a guide and are to be used with caution. Total rainfall amounts over the next week will more than likely be somewhat different than shown above. Some areas could get more rain and some less. But the overall trend is for a cool down with wetting beneficial rains. 

Meteorological Fall Begins Saturday.

Say goodbye to the meteorological summer tonight because our meteorological fall (Sept 1st - November 30th) begins tomorrow. Like most of you I'm ready for fall. Although it has been a typical hot summer for us it really wasn't anything unusual temperature-wise. Here at our home in northwest Carlsbad my highest temperature recorded so far was 109ºF (108.5ºF) on June 24th with an average temperature for that day of 92.4ºF. From June 1st through August 31st of this year I recorded a total of 26 days with high temperatures of 100ºF or above. And for the year this number stands at 37 days.

August 28th, 2018.

Looking Northeast From Black River Village Rd.

Davis WeatherLink.

2.1 NNW Dowtown Carlsbad, New Mexico.

Current Weather At 3:35 PM Friday, August 31, 2018.

Summer 2018 High/Low Temps.

(June 1st - August 31st).

SE NM 2018 Summer High Temps.

Lincoln & Otero Counties.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Test Drive Of My New Nikon D5600 Camera.

Thunderstorm Outflow Winds Kick Up Blowing Dust At Lakewood.

 Mist Trails From A Passing Vehicle.

  Even Though Its Rained Its Not Enough - Keep Those Irrigation Sprinklers Going Day And Night On The Cotton Fields. 

Rained On Alfalfa. Raked And Almost Ready To Bail.

While Rain Threatens In The Background At Least This Cutting Of Alfalfa Got Bailed Up Green. Now To Haul It To The Barn Before It Gets Rained On.

Thunderstorms once again popped up across Southeastern New Mexico this afternoon. So my wife and I took off towards Artesia to try out my new Nikon D5600 camera. My early Christmas present from my beautiful wife...I've waited years for a Nikon. I've a lot to learn about this camera and that was quickly realized. Overall although I'm somewhat overwhelmed with its many functions I'm extremely pleased with it. Now to work on my manual raw shots verses jpeg auto shots. Let the fun begin!

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Hit & Miss T-Storms Saturday - Rainfall Observers Needed Please Join CoCoRaHS.

August 18th, 2018.

Near Hondo, New Mexico.

One of the reasons that we've seen so much variability in our summer rainfall this year is because of the nature of our thunderstorms. Hit and miss type storms like the one pictured above have been the norm. Notice that this rain shaft was perhaps 1/4 of a mile wide. So whoever was underneath it likely got a decent amount of rain but everyone else surrounding it got left out.

Roswell Was A Good Example Yesterday.

GRLevel3 CoCoRaHS 24-Hour Rainfall Totals.

As Of 8 AM MDT Sunday, August 26th, 2018.

Combination Of 24-Hour Reported & Radar Estimated Rainfall Totals.

(As Of 8 AM MDT Sunday, August 26th, 2018).

August 25th, 2018.

South Of Roswell, New Mexico Looking Back To The Northwest.

Thunderstorms formed west through north of Roswell Sunday afternoon before eventually moving off to the northeast. We were about 15 miles south of town when I took the photo above. Radar estimated that 2" of rain may have fallen just east of Hagerman north of Hwy 249. Radar estimated that 1.50" of rain may have fallen just northeast of Roswell along US Hwy 70 and northwest of Roswell along State Hwy 246. 

Checking through all of the reported rainfall totals that are available online (this includes Personal Weather Stations and Official National Weather Service and FAA Stations) the greatest reported measured 24-hour total I can find is from the Six Mile PWS west of Roswell with .52". The Roswell Airport reported .37". 

Hobbs Is Another Case In Point.

GRLevel3 CoCoRaHS 24-Hour Rainfall Totals.

As Of 8 AM MDT Sunday, August 26th, 2018.

Combination Of 24-Hour Reported & Radar Estimated Rainfall Totals.

(As Of 8 AM MDT Sunday, August 26th, 2018).

Hobbs was another great example of our spotty hit and miss thunderstorms so far this year. Late yesterday afternoon a strong thunderstorm dumped heavy rains over the central and northern sections of the city. Radar estimated that as much as 2.00" to 2.80" may have fallen in these areas. 

Courtesy Of  NWS Midland On Twitter.

The Emergency Manager in Hobbs reported street flooding at the intersection of Bender and El Paso at 6:55 PM MDT. Flood waters were reported to have been 3 feet deep with vehicles stranded. As far as the reported 24-hour rainfall totals that are available online are concerned the greatest total I could find was 1.30" from a PWS in northwest Hobbs. A CoCoRaHS observer in central Hobbs reported 1.19" while a PWS in southwest Hobbs reported .91". Notice that all of these reports were outside of the heaviest rain core according to radar estimates.

More Volunteer Rainfall/Snowfall Observers Needed.

One way anyone can help get more widespread rainfall reports online for all to see is by joining the volunteer rainfall, snowfall, and hail reporting group known as CoCoRaHS. Its free to join and you will be able to enter your daily rainfall, snowfall, and hail reports into their computerized system daily. Your rainfall records will be stored daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly. You will be able to view them anytime you chose as well as see what your neighbors or anyone else has reported.

  To join up and get started click on this link.

Don't have a rain gauge? Then purchase one like this pictured below. These are really cool and hold up to 11" of rainfall. You will be able to measure your rainfall totals in .01" increments. Take a look at this really cool rain gauge below. 

Buy One Today Via This Link.

Then Report Your 24-Hour Rainfall Totals Online.

Chaves County New Mexico.

(As Of 9 AM MDT Sunday, August 26th, 2018).

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Last Nights Rainfall Totals.

Saturday, August 18, 2018.

What looked like a small and very brief shear funnel cloud that lasted less than one minute popped out of the base of this thunderstorm east of Ruidoso Downs this past Saturday morning at 11:41 AM MDT. Its just above the hilltop and to the left of the flag pole. 

Last Nights Rainfall.

Radar Estimates & Reported 24-Hour Totals.

(As Of 4 PM MDT This Monday Afternoon).

Judging by the intense lightning generated by this mornings complex of thunderstorms (MCS) that rolled southward through the Pecos Valley and the Caprock area you would have thought that most of us got clobbered by heavy rain. Not so. Once again it was a true case of hit and miss. There were pockets of 1" to 2" totals but these occurred east of Artesia and Carlsbad, and south and southwest of Carlsbad.

Midland NWS Doppler Radar Estimated 24-Hour Rainfall Totals.

Rainfall estimates by the Midland National Weather Service Doppler Radar appear to have been too high this morning...cut these total in half and you would be closer to the ground truth based on what was reported it appears. We picked up .15" here at our home in northwest Carlsbad while a few blocks away radar estimated that an inch of rain fell from Spring and Mesa streets eastward. But a CoCoRaHS rainfall observer only reported .56" to our east. So while radar was estimating that 3" may have fallen east of Hwy 31 east of Carlsbad the truth may be closer to 1.50" to 2.00". This year has just been crazy how spotty the rains have been.

Much Of SE NM Still Looks Like This.

Saturday, August 8, 2018.

Taken South Of Roswell, New Mexico.

Dry pastures still dominate much of our local landscape even with the summer rains. That's because these rains have been really spotty in nature so far. Drive down the road a mile or a few miles and you see the same landscape but its lush and green. Go on another few miles and its back to dry, dry, dry.

Case in point. The Carlsbad Airport picked up .12" of rainfall this morning which brings their August total to .73". Normal through the 20th of August is 1.24". This brings their year-to-date total to 5.84" compared to a normal of 8.25" as of this morning. So the Carlsbad Airport is still about 3" behind normal for this time of the year. And they have had roughly 3.20" more of rain this year than I have.

Six miles to the northwest my August total with this mornings .15" now stands at .45" which brings my year-to-date total to 2.65". This puts me at about 5.60" behind normal for this time of the year. This is typical for most of Southeastern New Mexico too.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Crepuscular Rays Over The Guadalupe's.

8-16-2018.

8-16-2018.

Crepuscular Rays - Same photo - same place...different views...black & white verses color. Looking west at the Guadalupe Mountains from Farm Market Road #652 just south of the New Mexico/Texas State Line southwest of Carlsbad, New Mexico.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

A Cool Morning - A Reprieve From Our Hot Summer Nights.

RTMA Temperatures.

At 6 AM MDT Monday, August 13, 2018.

Reported Low Temps This Morning.

(Monday, August 13, 2018).

Local reported low temperatures (a combination of official and non official readings) were noticeably cooler this morning. The 40's were widespread across the Sacramento Mountains, with the 50's reported in the Guadalupe's. While most of the southeastern plains were in the 60's.

Roswell officially dropped down to 61º for a low this morning making this their coolest morning since June 18th...also a low of 61º.

Artesia officially dropped down to 61º for a low this morning making this their coolest morning since July 1st when they reported 59º. 

Carlsbad officially dropped down to 63º at the airport which ties the 63º on August 6th. Prior to these dates the last time this summer that the Carlsbad Airport was this cool was back on June 4th with a low of 61º. 

This Mornings Lows Hint At Fall Down The Road

Although the meteorological beginning of fall won't occur until September 1st and the calendar beginning of fall won't begin until September 22nd this mornings cool temps was a welcome precursor. Especially since many of us have had lows close to 70º or above for a good part of this summer. 

We have started the slow slide downward as our overall daily temperature averages begins to cool as we head into the end of the meteorological summer. The change will be subtle for a while yet but a few degrees cooler in the afternoons and mornings will soon add up to be very noticeable by the time September arrives.

Not to worry we still have plenty of hot weather coming up. We can easily still see daily high temps reach or exceed 100º. And without much of a doubt this will happen between now and the end of September. 

By the way the Angel Fire Airport (at an elevation of 8,330' in the northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains of New Mexico) dipped down to 32º this morning.

Average High/Low Temps.

For July.

Roswell 94/68

Artesia 95/65

Carlsbad 96/67

Hobbs 94/67

Ruidoso 79/50

Cloudcroft 72/48

For August.

Roswell 92/66

Artesia 93/64

Carlsbad 95/66

Hobbs 92/66

Ruidoso 77/49

Cloudcroft 70/47

For September.

Roswell 86/59

Artesia 87/56

Carlsbad 88/59

Hobbs 86/59

Ruidoso 74/42

Cloudcroft 66/42

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!