Saturday Ushers In The Beginning Of The Meteorological Fall With Goods News.

August 30th, 2018.

Argo/Hidalgo Gas Plant 21 Miles West Of Orla, Texas.

Summer Upper Air Pattern Fades As The Meteorological Fall Arrives.

ECMWF 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Saturday, September 1st, 2018.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Tuesday, September 4, 2018.

Our summer heat ridge (at the mid levels of the atmosphere or the 18,000' level) has shifted east to eastern third of the nation today. Meanwhile a trough of low pressure is digging southward from south-central Canada into the Desert Southwest. This mid-level trough is forecast to stick around through the first of next week. This will help knock our temps down and increase our chances for rain from tomorrow into the at least the middle of next week. Subtropical moisture from Mexico is forecast to spread northward into New Mexico during this time.

Week Long Rains Forecast?

ECMWF Forecast Storm Total Rainfall Amounts.

Valid Today Through Next Thursday Morning.

GFS Forecast Storm Total Rainfall Amounts.

Valid Today Through Next Thursday Morning.

GFS 10-Day Temp & Rainfall Forecast.

Carlsbad, New Mexico.

Today's 18Z run of the US GFS computer forecast model gets rather excited about rain across Southeastern New Mexico over the next week. It comes up with 4" for Carlsbad by next Thursday. The European (ECMWF) is less optimistic with that much rain...1.50" to 3.00" for most of the local area.

Weather Prediction Centers (WPC) 7 Day Rainfall Forecast.

Valid Saturday Through Next Friday.

On board with the idea of widespread soaking rains is the WPC's model which comes up with 1.50" to nearly 2.50" over the entire local area. We will also need to be watching to see if a tropical system forms in the Gulf of Mexico next week which could add to the mix down the road. Remember that the model rainfall forecasts depicted above are a guide and are to be used with caution. Total rainfall amounts over the next week will more than likely be somewhat different than shown above. Some areas could get more rain and some less. But the overall trend is for a cool down with wetting beneficial rains.

Meteorological Fall Begins Saturday.

Say goodbye to the meteorological summer tonight because our meteorological fall (Sept 1st - November 30th) begins tomorrow. Like most of you I'm ready for fall. Although it has been a typical hot summer for us it really wasn't anything unusual temperature-wise. Here at our home in northwest Carlsbad my highest temperature recorded so far was 109ºF (108.5ºF) on June 24th with an average temperature for that day of 92.4ºF. From June 1st through August 31st of this year I recorded a total of 26 days with high temperatures of 100ºF or above. And for the year this number stands at 37 days.