Record Cold Halloween!

Surface Map Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Wednesday Oct 30th, 2019.

NAM 12 KM Precipitation Type Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Wednesday Oct 30th, 2019.

NWS Storm Total Snowfall Forecast. 

Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Wednesday, Oct 30th, 2019.

GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Today.

Record Cold Halloween.

Early this Tuesday morning a powerful mid-upper level storm was developing over the Great Basin. By tonight a closed low will be approaching the Four Corners Region. As this anomalously deep (see the NWS AFD issued at 3:32 AM MDT this morning) closed low swings across northern New Mexico and southern Colorado Wednesday into Halloween it will send a record cold airmass southward into the area.

Areas of fog, light drizzle, light rain may change over to light freezing drizzle and light freezing rain with pockets of light snow over our far northern areas later tonight into Wednesday morning. 

NWS Forecast High Temperatures.

Today.

Low clouds have developed in the low-level easterly upslope flow behind a stationary front draped over the area this morning. Depending upon how much clearing takes place later today will determine how warm it gets. The front is forecast to remain hung up on the Caprock to our east so we should approach 70ºF.

Wednesday.

Tonight a modified arctic cold front will back westward into the area and move southward into far West Texas on Wednesday. Our highs are only forecast to be in the 40's locally on Wednesday.

Halloween.

NWS Midland Forecast.

Halloween will be chilly during the daytime with highs in the 40's and 50's. Temperatures at sunset are forecast to be in the 40's. Bundle up the kiddos when they go out.

NWS Forecast Low Temperatures Halloween Morning.

NWS Forecast Wind Chill Values Halloween Morning.

Low temperatures Halloween morning will be in the teens for most of Southeastern New Mexico Halloween morning. We will be in record breaking territory with these readings. Some of our normally colder locations such as on the Caprock and in the higher mountain valleys will see their lows in the single digits. Wind chill values will make it feel a little colder.

Record Low Temperatures For Halloween.

Roswell 14 in 1991

Artesia 18 in 1993

Hope 16 in 1991

Carlsbad 21 in 1991

Hobbs 18 in 1991

Ruidoso 10 in 1991

Cloudcroft 12 in 1993

Elk -1 in 1991

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

First Freeze/Hard Freeze Of The Season Friday Morning.

RTMA Temperatures At 7 AM MDT Friday, Oct 25th, 2019.

At 7 AM MDT Friday, Oct 25th, 2019.

New Mexico MesoWest Reported Low Temperatures.

(As Of Midnight Friday, Oct 25th, 2019).

Although many areas of New Mexico had already experienced their first freeze of the season prior to Friday morning, most of Southeastern New Mexico and nearby areas of West Texas had not. Not only did we get our first freeze but many locations had a hard freeze. Several Personal Weather Stations (PWS) in the Artesia and Roswell areas recorded unofficial low temperatures in the low 20's.

Some of the colder official low temperatures recorded include:

Elk Climate Co-Op Station: 16

Cloudcroft Climate Co-Op Station: 21

Roswel Portable Raws On The Caprock 23

Artesia Climate Co-Op Climate Station: 25

Guadalupe Pass ASOS: 25

Low temperatures being reported this Saturday morning a running close to Friday's lows but generally a couple of degrees warmer.

 Thus ends the growing season for 2019.

New Mexico CoCoRaHS Snowfall Totals.

(As Of 8 AM MDT Friday, Oct 25th, 2019).

NWS Albuquerque Storm Total Snowfall Reports.

SNOW 

 • 3 ESE ANGEL FIRE - 7.0 in.

 • 10 ENE FOLSOM - 6.0 in.
 • FOLSOM - 6.0 in.

 • EAGLE NEST - 5.5 in.
 • 8 SE EAGLE NEST - 5.0 in.
 • 5 E SHADY BROOK - 5.0 in.

 • 7 ESE DES MOINES - 4.2 in.
 • 9 ENE SHADY BROOK - 4.0 in.
 • RED RIVER - 4.0 in.
 • 3 SSW SENA - 4.0 in.

 • CAPULIN - 3.5 in.
 • 6 WNW SUGARITE - 3.0 in.
 • 8 SW ROCIADA - 3.0 in.
 • 4 NNW TRES RITOS - 3.0 in.
 • 6 N EAGLE NEST - 3.0 in.
 • CHIMAYO - 3.0 in.

 • 1 WSW MIAMI - 2.5 in.
 • CLOVIS - 2.5 in.
 • 1 ESE TRUCHAS - 2.1 in.
 • 1 WNW EL RANCHO - 2.0 in.
 • 13 NW SEDAN - 2.0 in.
 • 5 SSE LLANO LARGO - 2.0 in.
 • RED RIVER - 2.0 in.
 • TRUCHAS - 2.0 in.
 • 1 W CLAYTON - 2.0 in.
 • 3 ENE TUCUMCARI - 2.0 in.
 • 3 NW TRES RITOS - 2.0 in.

 • MILLS - 1.8 in.
 • 6 S TEXICO - 1.5 in.
 • 1 N RATON - 1.5 in.
 • EDGEWOOD - 1.5 in.
 • 1 ESE ABBOTT - 1.5 in.
 • 2 S YESO - 1.5 in.
 • 2 N EDGEWOOD - 1.5 in.
 • EDGEWOOD - 1.5 in.
 • 2 SSW LOS CORDOVAS - 1.3 in.
 • 2 E SAN PABLO - 1.3 in.
 • 2 SSW SANTA CRUZ - 1.0 in.
 • 5 N EDGEWOOD - 1.0 in.
 • 1 NNW ROMEROVILLE - 1.0 in.
 • 1 WNW CLAYTON - 1.0 in.
 • CONCHAS - 1.0 in.
 • 1 N TAOS - 1.0 in.

 • 2 WSW HERNANDEZ - 0.8 in.
 • 1 ESE SEDILLO - 0.7 in.
 • 3 ENE MIERA - 0.5 in.
 • 2 SE MANZANO - 0.5 in.
 • 3 E LOS ALAMOS - 0.5 in.
 • LOS ALAMOS - 0.5 in.
 • 3 NNE LOS CERRILLOS - 0.1 in.
 • 3 W LOGAN - 0.1 in.

Last updated:
1031 AM 10/25/2019

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

Cold, Windy, Raw Today - Hard Freeze Tonight.

RTMA Regional Temperatures.

(At 5 AM MDT This Thursday Morning).

Regional MesoWest Temperatures.

(At 5 AM MDT This Thursday Morning).

IR Satellite Image.

(At 5 AM MDT This Thursday Morning).

Surface Map Analysis.

(At 3 AM MDT This Thursday Morning).

Surface Map Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT This Thursday Afternoon.

Right on cue a potent cold front has swept through Southeastern New Mexico and nearby West Texas as of 5 AM this morning. Infrared satellite imagery and surface observations show low clouds (light blue shades on the image above) quickly filling in behind the cold front across the area.

Temperatures locally are as warm as they are going to get today with slowly falling values throughout the day. By late this afternoon and early this evening we will be in the 30's. Wind chill temperatures are expected to drop down into the 20's and 30's today. A raw, cold, windy day is on tap...welcome to an early taste of winter.

NWS Forecast Low Temperatures Friday Morning.

NWS Midland Hard Freeze & Freeze Warnings.

NWS Albuquerque Winter Storm Warning & Winter Weather Advisories.

(Freeze Watches).

NWS Total Snowfall Forecast.

Valid Today Through 6 AM MDT Friday.

Light rain and drizzle may impact parts of Southeastern New Mexico and nearby West Texas today. There is a chance that a mix of light rain, snow, and perhaps some sleet could occur over our far northern and eastern areas late this afternoon and evening as well as over the mountains. However as of 5 AM MDT this morning the forecast models are not forecasting any signification accumulations.

Our first widespread freeze will occur Friday morning with many areas experiencing a killing freeze. Our low temperatures tonight into Friday morning are expected to drop down into the 20's with some teens in the higher mountain valleys.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

First Winter Storm Approaching. 80's Today - 40's/50's Thursday & Friday.

Oct 19th, 2019.

Just Before Ski Apache West Of Ruidoso, New Mexico.

Canadian (GEM) 500 MB/18,000' Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Friday.

Disagreement between the forecast models continues concerning the seasons first winter storm that will affect the state tonight into Friday. The GFS model continues its trend of moving the short wave trough through rather quickly instead of closing it off over the area like the European and Canadian. The European has backed off some on a closed low over Eastern New Mexico. Worst case scenario still comes via the Canadian (depicted above) which maintains a closed low over northern Southeastern New Mexico by sunset Friday. How bad this first winter storm ends up being will be highly dependent upon what happens with the track and strength of the system.

Strong Cold Front Will Race Southward.

Valid At 6 AM Thursday Morning.

A strong fast moving cold front is forecast to overspread the area by sunrise Thursday morning. Falling temperatures throughout the morning and day accompanied by strong gusty northerly winds will make it feel winter-like locally.

NWS Forecast High Temperatures.

Today.

Highs today will range from the upper 70's to the low 80's.

Thursday.

Our high temperatures on Thursday will only be in the 40's and 50's behind the front.

NWS Low Temperature Forecast.

Our low temperatures are forecast to drop down into the 20's and 30's Friday morning which will likely usher in the first widespread freeze of the season locally.

Winter Storm Warning & Winter Weather Advisory.

Precipitation Type Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM Thursday.

Should the Canadian model verify instead of the European and GFS models then a mix of light rain, light snow, and sleet could be possible late Thursday afternoon and evening over parts of Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas. However there still remains much uncertainty concerning this so this is not set in stone just yet.

Snowfall Total Forecasts.

NWS Total Snowfall Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Saturday.

Canadian Total Snowfall Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Friday.

Again the Canadian forecast model offers the worst case scenario concerning our potential for winter weather and snowfall over the area Thursday into Friday. Time will tell which model gets this one right.

A High Wind Watch has been issued for Guadalupe Pass for Thursday morning through Thursday night for northeasterly winds sustained at around 40 to 50 mph with gusts near 60 mph.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

Get Ready For Much Colder Weather & Maybe Some Snow By Weeks End.

October 19th, 2019.

Looking At Sierra Blanca Peak From The Ski Apace Gondola.

Winter Weather End Of This Week?

GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Friday, Oct 25th, 2019.

ECMWF 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Friday, Oct 25th, 2019.

Canadian (GEM) 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Friday, Oct 25th, 2019.

Model confusion leads to some unknowns concerning our local forecasts for the area Thursday into Friday. Both the European and the Canadian models drop a short wave trough of low pressure into Eastern New Mexico and West Texas and close if off as a closed mid-upper level low by early Friday. Naturally the GFS disagrees and sweeps the fast moving short wave trough of low pressure across the region Thursday into Friday. So will it snow or not in parts of the local area later this week?

Canadian Precipitation Type Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Thursday, Oct 24th, 2019.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Friday, Oct 25th, 2019.

This mornings run of the Canadian forecast model (depicted above) indicates that snow will develop over parts of Northeastern and Eastern New Mexico Thursday into Friday morning behind a strong southward moving cold front. Likewise the European model agrees but the GFS keeps us high and dry with light snow barley clipping the far corner of Northeastern New Mexico. 

Canadian Temperature Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Friday, Oct 25th, 2019.

Snow or no snow its fixing to get cold once the front plows through Thursday. Strong gusty northerly winds will drop our temps down into the 20's according to the Canadian model forecast early Friday morning. If so then not only will we have our first widespread freeze of the season at the lower elevations but some of us could even experience a killing freeze with temps falling down close to 25ºF or lower. If not Saturday morning. More on all this later.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!