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Scattered T-Storms Today - A Few May Be Severe. Our First Freeze By Next Saturday?

(Some May Be Severe).

Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to pop up this afternoon and evening across the local area. A few of these could become severe and produce large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts. Localized heavy rainfall could possibility cause localized flash flooding especially in those areas hardest hit by last weeks heavy rains.

 Our First Freeze By Next Weekend?

Valid At 6 AM MDT Thursday, Oct 10th, 2019.

Analyzed At Midnight Monday Night.

GFS 500 Millibar/18,000' Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Thursday, Oct 10th, 2019.

Winter weather will make a quick return to the northern and central Rockies starting in the far Pacific Northwest tonight and spreading east and southeast into Thursday and Friday. Heavy snows are once again forecast to fall over many of the same areas that got heavy snow last week. Parts of Montana, Wyoming, the Dakotas, and the higher elevations of the Colorado Rockies are expected to get anywhere from 6" to a foot or more of new snow in some locations.

A potent mid-upper level closed low is forecast to develop over the northwestern Rockies today and slide southeastward to near northern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming by sunset Thursday. Very cold air and heavy snows will accompany this winter storm as it intensifies mid-week.

Forecast High/Low Temperatures This Week.

NWS Forecast High Temps Wednesday.

NWS Forecast High Temps Thursday.

NWS Forecast Low Temps Friday Morning.

NWS Forecast High Temps Friday.

NWS Low Temps Saturday.

Today's forecast highs across Southeastern New Mexico are expected to range from near 80ºF to 85ºF. Wednesday's highs are forecast to range from near 85ºF to near 90ºF. Thursday's highs are forecast to range from the mid to upper 80's to the low 90's.

Then the seasons first strong cold front arrives Thursday night or early Friday morning. Our forecast highs on Friday are only expected to be in the 40's to near 50 across much of the local area. 

Huge Drop In Temperatures Starting Thursday Night.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Friday.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Friday.

GFS Apparent Temperature Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Thursday.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Friday.

As the strong cold front plows southward Thursday night strong gusty northerly winds will accompany the frontal passage along with localized areas of blowing dust. Rapidly falling temperatures will also occur Thursday night into Friday morning also. Temperatures behind the front Thursday night and Friday will be some 25ºF to 40ºF below normal.

Friday morning will be windy and cold with apparent temperatures locally falling down into the 20's and 30's with actual temperatures in the 30's and 40's. 

Valid By 6 AM MDT Friday.

Current forecasts call for the possibility of some light snow over the far northern mountains of New Mexico, and the northeastern highlands Thursday afternoon and evening into Friday morning. Light snow is also possible across the far northwestern Panhandle of Texas.

Many locations in New Mexico especially in the western, northern, and eastern areas of the state may wake up to their first freeze or even killing freeze of the season Friday and Saturday mornings. I expected to at least see some areas locally see their first frost or perhaps even a freeze Saturday morning. More on this later.

A similar setup occurred back in 1986. Albuquerque received 3.2" of snowfall with a high of only 38ºF and a low of 31ºF on the 12th. Ruidoso recorded 5.0" of snow with a high of 41ºF and a low of 26ºF on the 12th. Cloudcroft recorded 4.0" of snow with a high of 40ºF and a low of 27ºF. Cloudcroft recorded a low of 23ºF on the 13th and Ruidoso 24ºF. 

Roswell recorded a high of 43ºF and a low of 37ºF on the 12th with a trace of precipitation. Artesia recorded a high of 44ºF and a low of 37ºF. Artesia recorded a low of 30ºF on the 14th.Tatum had a high of 37ºF and a low of 27ºF. Tatum dropped down to 22ºF on the 14th. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!


2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM 24-Hour Temp Graph

2.1 Downtown Carlsbad, NM 30-Day Temps

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