Widespread Rain Showers & Thunderstorms (Some Severe) Today Into Friday.

Sept 29, 2021.
Lakewood, NM.

Another Smoky Sunset.

Next Storm Already Impacting The Area.

Surface Map Analysis.

Surface Map Forecasts.

Valid At Noon MDT Today.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Today.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Saturday.

At sunrise this morning a backdoor cold front was easing into Southeastern New Mexico. As of 8:30 AM it had made it as far south as Artesia. The cold front is forecast to continue its slow progression southward and westward today into tonight. A cooler and much wetter airmass will overspread the state and local area today into Sunday with temperatures below seasonal averages to start October off. 

Radar shows scattered to numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms dotting the landscape this morning. This activity will increase in aerial coverage and intensity today and become more widespread this afternoon into Friday. Localized heavy rainfall and isolated localized flash flooding will also be possible in Southeastern New Mexico. Current model forecasts call for the heaviest rains to remain north of us, however.

Snow still remains possible across the highest mountain peaks of northern New Mexico generally above 11,000'. It's possible that Sierra Blanca Peak and the upper reaches of Ski Apache could see some snow tonight into Friday. Snow levels are still forecast to run around 11,000' into the weekend.

Severe Weather Outlook Today.

Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Outlook.

Scattered thunderstorms this morning will become more widespread and stronger this afternoon and early evening across parts of Southeastern New Mexico and nearby West Texas. Some of these will become severe and produce damaging wind gusts in excess of 60, mph, large hail, and frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning. Localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding will also accompany the stronger of these thunderstorms. The tornado threat appears to be low but you can never completely rule this threat out with severe thunderstorms so don't be surprised if a couple do develop this afternoon and early evening.

WPC Temperature Anomaly Forecasts.

Today.

Friday.

Saturday.

Sunday.

NWS NDFD High/Low-Temperature Forecasts.

Today.

Low Temperatures Friday Morning.

High Temperatures Friday.

Low Temperatures Saturday Morning.

High Temperatures Saturday.

Low Temperatures Sunday Morning.

High Temperatures Sunday.

NWS NDFD Storm Total Precipitation Amounts.

NWS NDFD Storm Total Snowfall Amounts.

Forecast high temperatures across the lower elevations of Southeastern and parts of West Texas will generally run in the 70's today through Saturday. Sunday will see the thermometer rise back into the 80's. High temperatures across the Sacramento, Capitan, and Guadalupe mountains will range from the 50's to 60's today into the weekend. Lows in the mountains will drop down into the 40's in the Ruidoso area and the 30's in the Cloudcroft area.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Next Fall Storm Inbound With Cooler & Wetter Conditions Thursday Into Saturday.

RTMA Temperatures.

At 10 AM MDT Wednesday, Sept 29, 2021.

Surface Map Analysis.

At 6 AM MDT Wednesday, Sept 29, 2021.

Surface Map Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Thursday, Sept 30, 2021.

Looking at the surface maps a cold front stretched from near San Diego northeast to near Las Vegas to Cheyanne to southern Canada at 6 AM MDT this Wednesday morning. This front is forecast to move southward and eastward today into the weekend. Thursday will see the front work very slowly southward and westward into Southeastern New Mexico and the south-central mountains and southern New Mexico. It is forecast to stall out and or slow down by Friday night just south of the New Mexico border.

GFS 500 MB (18,000') Analysis.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Wednesday Morning.

At sunrise, this morning a mid-level long-wave trough of low pressure stretched southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska into the Desert Southwest and the Baja Region.

GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Friday, October 1, 2021.

Forecast models indicate that a closed mid-upper level low will form over Arizona tonight. Then drift slowly southeastward into southern New Mexico on Friday. It then is forecast to open up, weaken, and swing northeastward into the Texas Panhandle Saturday afternoon.

Southeasterly low-level upslope flow behind the approaching cold front will increase the surface moisture over the area Thursday into Friday. Mid-level moisture will surge northward and into New Mexico from the south Thursday into Saturday. 

NDFD Temperature Anomaly Forecasts.

Wednesday.

Thursday.

Friday.

A cooler and much wetter airmass will overspread the state and area Thursday into Friday behind the backdoor cold front. Chances for heavy rain and localized flash flooding will also increase over portions of the state. A turn to more fall-like conditions will overspread the area into the weekend with overcast skies and widespread rainfall. Snow will even be possible across the highest mountain peaks across the state mainly above 11,000'. 

NWS NDFD High/Low-Temperature Forecasts.

High Temperatures Today.

Low Temperatures Thursday.

High Temperatures Thursday.

Low Temperatures Friday.

High Temperatures Friday.

Low Temperatures Saturday.

NWS NDFD Storm Total Precipitation Forecast.

(Valid Today Through 6 AM Saturday).

NWS NDFD Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.

(Valid Thursday Into Saturday Morning).

Snow is forecast over the highest elevations of the northern mountains of New Mexico associated with this next inbound storm. Generally speaking, the snow line will run around 11,000' with up to a foot possible Thursday into Saturday morning.

New Mexico Reported Storm Total Rainfall Amounts.

(Past 3-Days).

CoCoRaHS 3-Day NM Storm Total Rainfall Amounts.

Over the past three days, our first mid-upper level storm produced light to moderate rainfall totals across the Southeastern Plains, the Sacramento mountains, and southern New Mexico.

New Mexico Storm Total Rainfall Amounts.

RAIN 

 • 2 NE SAN ANTONITO - 0.78 in.
 • 12 SSW EL VADO - 0.72 in.

 • 7 SSW COYOTE - 0.62 in.

 •  OJO ENCINO - 0.47 in.
 • 6 SSE QUEMADO LAKE - 0.47 in.
 • 2 SE MADRID - 0.46 in.

 •  FENCE LAKE - 0.36 in.
 • 1 ESE CEDAR HILL - 0.33 in.
 • 1 SSE LUIS LOPEZ - 0.32 in.
 • 1 WNW SANTA CRUZ - 0.30 in.
 • 13 ENE BURNHAM - 0.30 in.

 •  DULCE - 0.27 in.
 • 12 N NAVAJO DAM - 0.26 in.
 • 2 N CHAMA - 0.25 in.
 • 8 NNE OMEGA - 0.25 in.
 • 1 S CEDAR HILL - 0.25 in.
 • 5 ENE ENSENADA - 0.23 in.
 • 3 NE AZTEC - 0.22 in.
 • 1 WSW FARMINGTON - 0.21 in.

 • 1 SSE ESCONDIDA - 0.17 in.
 • 2 WSW AZTEC - 0.17 in.
 • 2 NE SOCORRO - 0.16 in.
 • 1 ESE AZTEC - 0.15 in.
 • 1 E AZTEC - 0.15 in.
 • 1 N CANONES - 0.14 in.
 • 5 E AZTEC - 0.14 in.
 • 2 SW FARMINGTON - 0.13 in.
 • 8 SW ALBUQUERQUE - 0.13 in.
 • 1 ESE TRUCHAS - 0.12 in.
 • 2 NNE FARMINGTON - 0.12 in.
 • 3 NE FARMINGTON - 0.10 in.
 • 3 WSW FARMINGTON - 0.10 in.
 • 2 W DATIL - 0.10 in.
 • 3 ENE FARMINGTON - 0.10 in.
 • 3 SSW FARMINGTON - 0.10 in.
 • 3 S FARMINGTON - 0.10 in.

Last updated:
0919 AM 09/28/20

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!