Seasonably Hot This 4th Of July Week & On The 4th

Seasonably Hot This 4th Of July Week & On The 4th - Hottest Day In Our History.

- June 29, 2026

June 19, 2026.

Between Mayhill & Cloudcroft.

Come Wednesday (July 1st), the year will be half over; our daily high/low/average temps will slowly start trending downward; and we lose a little more daylight each day, and normally our annual summer monsoon is underway.

When I was a kid in the 60s, the oldtime farmers and ranchers used to tell me this. If it hasn't rained by the 4th of July, it's going to be a dry year. There is a lot of truth in that saying, given that's around the time our monsoon ramps up, producing afternoon and nighttime thunderstorms (t-storms) statewide.

July normally sees a big increase in thunderstorm activity statewide with the advent of the summer monsoon. This means an increase in the humidity, and this means July can be very muggy and miserable some years.

Average rainfall really ramps up in July, especially over the mountains.

Elk normally averages 1.62" of rainfall in June. July averages 3.14".

Mountain Park normally averages 1.17" of rainfall in June. July averages 3.59".

Ruidoso normally averages 2.05" of rainfall in June. July averages 4.31".

Cloudcroft normally averages 2.22" of rainfall in June. July averages 5.53".

Wettest Julys on record.

In July 2008, the Mayhill CoCoRaHS (Cloudcroft 16 ESE) recorded 15.82" of rainfall.

In July 1905, Elk recorded 15.10" of rainfall.

In July 2008, the Sunspot CoCoRaHS 0.07 N E recorded 14.69" of rainfall.

In July 2008, the Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS 4.0 E recorded 14.38" of rainfall.

In July 1991, Clovis recorded 13.95" of rainfall.

In July 2008, Cloudcroft recorded 13.33" of rainfall.

In July 1008, the Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS 1.8 SW recorded 12.94" of rainfall.

In July 1925, Tatum recorded 11.94" of rainfall.

In July 1950, Ruidoso recorded 10.86" of rainfall.

In July 1902, Carlsbad recorded 10.50" of rainfall.

In July 1955, the Mayhill Ranger Station recorded 9.92" of rainfall.

In July 1978, Artesia recorded 9.77" of rainfall.

In July 1955, Mountain Park recorded 9.76" of rainfall.

In July 1950, Mescalero recorded 9.72" of rainfall.

In July 1988, Hobbs recorded 9.41" of rainfall.

In July 2010, Carlsbad Caverns recorded 8.87" of rainfall.

In July 1941, Whitetail (SE of Ruidoso) recorded 8.25" of rainfall. Whitetail recorded 62.51" of rainfall in 1941, making this New Mexico's highest rainfall for a year.

In July 1881, El Paso recorded 8.18" of rainfall.

In July 1968, the Flying H Ranch N of Dunken recorded 7.90" of rainfall.

In July 1991, the Bitter Lakes Wildlife Refuge recorded 7.75" of rainfall.

In July 1975, Hope recorded 7.26" of rainfall.

In July 1991, Roswell recorded 6.88" of rainfall.

In July 1976, Alamogordo recorded 6.36" of rainfall.

June usually sees our all-time and yearly highest daily high temperatures across the state. In fact, many all-time record high temperatures still stand, a lot of them set on June 26, 27,28 1994.

WIPP NWS Climate COOP Station (1986-2026)

122 set on June 27, 1994. This still stands as the state's all-time record high temperature!

Lakewood (Unofficial readings - my records 1983-2004)

119 set on June 27, 1994. (A NWS Stevenson Instrument Shelter and a NWS mercury maximum thermometer were used to record the temperature).

Ochoa NWS Climate COOP Station (1991-2019) located west-northwest of Jal.

118 set on June 28, 1994.

Brantley Dam NWS Climate COOP Station (1987-2026)

116 set on June 27, 1994.

Hope NWS Climate COOP Station (1919-2026)

115 set on June 26,27 1994.

Tatum NWS Climate COOP Station (1919-2016)

115 set on June 28, 1994.

Dell City, Texas NWS Climate COOP Station (1979-2018)

115 set on June 28, 1994.

Bitter Lakes Wildlife Refuge NWS Climate COOP Station (1950-2024)

114 set on June 28, 1994.

Carlsbad NWS Climate COOP Station (1900-2021)

114 set on June 28, 1994.

Hobbs NWS Climate COOP Station (1913-2022)

114 set on June 27, 1998.

Tularosa NWS Climate COOP Station (1906-2019)

112 set on July 5, 1910.

Carlsbad Caverns National Park NWS Climate COOP Station (1935-2024)

110 set on June 28, 1994.

Las Cruces NWS Climate COOP Station NMSU (1892-2026)

110 on June 28, 1994.

Portales NWS Climate COOP Station (1905-2026)

109 set on June 15, 1924, June 28, 1968, June 25, 2011, July 13, 2016, and July 19, 2023.

Albuquerque NWS ASOS Station International Airport (1891-2026)

107 set on June 26, 1994.

Picacho NWS Climate COOP Station (1980-2019)

106 set on June 26, 27 1994.

Exceptions to the June 26,27,28 1994 records are:

Artesia NWS Climate COOP Station (1905-2026)

116 set on June 29, 1918.

Oragrande NWS Climate COOP Station (1904-2015) located between Alamagordo and El Paso, Texas.

116 set on July 14, 1934.

Jal NWS Climate COOP Station (1919-2023)

114 set on July 13, 2011.

El Paso NWS Climate COOP Station (International Airport) (1887-2016)

114 set on June 30, 1994.

Carlsbad Airport ASOS (1930-2026)

113 set on June 27, 1994, June 27, 1995, June 28, 1998.

Caprock NWS Climate COOP Station (2007-2026)

112 set on July 20, 2022.

White Sands Natl Monument NWS Climate COOP Station (1939-2026)

111 set on June 22, 1981, June 27, 1994, August 10, 2025.

ElK NWS Climate COOP Station (1896-2026)

110 set on July 22, 2023.

Alamagordo NWS Climate COOP Station (1892-2009)

110 set on June 13, 1939, July 8, 1951, June 22, 1981, and June 26, 1994.

Guadalupe Pass ASOS Guadalupe Mtn's Natl Park (1948-2023)

107 set on June 26, 2023.

Mountain Park NWS Climate COOP Station (1894-2026)

101 set on July 14, 1940.

Ruidoso NWS Climate COOP Station (1941-2026)

98 set on June 26, 1994.

Cloudcroft NWS Climate COOP Station (1901-2026)

89 set on June 26, 1957, and July 4, 1957.

Where Is Our Monsoon?

Although the official start to our annual summer monsoon is June 15th, we've yet to see it kick off. Maybe by this 4th of July holiday weekend, as a surge of moisture moves northward into the state from Mexico. Not every monsoon is the same, and not all summer monsoons produce the same amounts of rainfall. Some years are wet to very wet, while some, not so much.

The fly in the ointment this year is the continued developing strong El Niño. El Niño summers are typically hot to very hot, and more often than not, dry, and that is par for the course so far. The Four Corners continues to suffer from extreme drought, while the parts of the eastern half of the state have been playing catch-up rainfall-wise. Rainfall over the southeastern plains, the Sacramento, Capitan, and Guadalupe Mountains has been highly variable.

Not all El Niño summers are wet; many are simply hot and dry. El Niño has a bigger impact upon our weather during the late summer, fall, winter, and spring months after it develops.

Selected Reported June Rainfall Totals.

Cool Pines RV Park NW of Mayhill 7.56"

XL Automated Station 7.5 NW Carlsbad 6.28"

Clovis CoCoRaHS 1.7 NE 5.74"

Rosebud NMCC (Harding County) 4.55"

XL Automated Station 4.5 W Carlsbad 4.46"

Mayhill NMCC 4.32"

Carlsbad CoCoRaHS 3.4 N 4.26"

Mayhill CoCoRaHS 4,0 SSE 3.90"

Lovington Golf Course NMCC 3.70"

Carlsbad EMRC NMCC 3.67"

Our Home NW Carlsbad 3.63"

N Carlsbad PWS (WB5CFT) 3.31"

Dog Canyon Raws 3.29"

Alto CoCoRaHS 7.4 W (Ski Apache) 3.01"

Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS 1.8 SW 3.00"

Queen Raws 2.85"

Jal NMCC 2.78"

Las Cruces CoCoRaHS 6.9 ESE 2.60"

Portales NWS Climate COOP Station 2.40"

Smokey Bear Raws - Ruidoso 2.22"

Carlsbad Airport ASOS 2.19"

Cloudcroft NWS Climate COOP Station 2.17"

Elk NWS Climate COOP Station 1.95"

Dexter NMCC 1.94"

Artesia CoCoRaHS 3.5 NNE 1.93"

Lake Arthur CoCoRaHS 2.5 ESE 1.79"

Ruidoso NWS Climate COOP Station 1.75"

El Paso International Airport 1.71"

Runyan Ranches NMCC 1.64"

Las Cruces NMU Climate COOP Station 1.43"

Roswell Industrial Air Center ASOS 1.38"

Roswell CoCoRaHS 0.3 SSW 1.32"

Tatum CoCoRaHS 0.9 E 1.30"

Clayton Airport ASOS 1.30"

Hondo NMCC 1.26"

Hope NMCC 4.9 W 1.23"

Hope NWS Climate COOP Station 1.22"

Santa Fe Airport ASOS 1.21"

Capitan CoCoRaHS 1.3 WSW 1.13"

Artesia NWS Climate COOP Station .95"

Mountain Park NWS Climate COOP Station .89"

Holloman AFB ASOS .88"

Pie Town CoCoRaHS 0.1 WNW .83"

Lordsburg Airport AWOS .76"

Timberon CoCoRaHS 0.3 NNW .74"

Artesia Airport AWOS .70"

Hobbs Airport AWOS .54"

Farmington AG Science Center .53"

Alamogordo CoCoRaHS 2.4 NNE .64"

Grants Airport AWOS .54"

Albuquerque International Airport ASOS .37"

Gallup Airport ASOS .28"

Los Alamos Airport AWOS .27"

4th of July Holiday Week Outlook.

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
340 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Medium (40-60%, up to 70%) shower and thunderstorm chances
  persist through at least Wednesday, mainly for the higher
  terrain west of the Pecos. Some storms may produce damaging
  downburst winds.

- Temperatures trend down through Wednesday before warming back
  above normal by the end of the week. &&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A southwesterly flow pattern aloft will continue over much of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico on Wednesday as our forecast area
remains sandwiched between an upper-level ridge centered across
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and an upper-level trough over the
western CONUS. Shortwave impulses embedded within the
southwesterly flow aloft along with abundant moisture will favor
the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
over much of the Big Bend, Marfa Plateau, Davis Mountains, Van
Horn Corridor, and Upper Trans Pecos regions. Other isolated to
scattered storms may develop into southeast New Mexico and the
central and western Permian Basin. A few storms may become strong
to severe given sufficient instability/DCAPE and up to 20-30 kt of
deep layer shear. A similar pattern continues on Thursday, with
the best convective chances once again focused over the southwest
mountains and Big Bend region. Upper-level ridging will build
back over west Texas and southeast New Mexico Friday and Saturday.
The ridge axis may shift further west by Sunday but still
maintains an influence across our region through the latter part
of the weekend. Convective coverage should become more limited in
coverage late this week and into the weekend given the building
ridge, but we still anticipate at least isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop each day, particularly in the mountains.
Moisture might increase on the eastern fringe of the ridge axis on
Sunday to bring slightly better convective coverage (20-30%) on
Sunday. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will mostly range in the 90s,
except for readings in the 80s over the higher terrain and up to
104 degrees along the Rio Grande. Expect a return to above normal
temperatures Friday through the weekend with temperatures heating
back up to near or slightly above the century mark each day. &&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
225 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 217 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Windy and dry conditions will increase the threat of rapid fire
  spread and large fire growth through at least Tuesday.

- Dry storms and evaporating showers may produce strong and
  erratic outflow wind gusts in central and northern New Mexico
  Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Isolated strong to severe storms will focus over far eastern
  New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. &&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Weak troughing will persist over the western CONUS late week, with
ridging over the eastern US. It will be dry and hot in most areas,
with a low chance of an isolated storm or two over the Sacramento
mountains. Models are still showing an amplification of a ridge over
the southern Rockies this weekend, slowly drawing moisture into the
Desert Southwest. Mostly dry conditions will continue into Saturday,
with slightly higher rain chances early next week as deeper moisture
makes its way northward. All ensemble systems are showing above
normal PWATs over New Mexico early to mid-next week, suggesting at
least isolated storms, with higher chances across the east.
Furthermore, with the ridge moving overhead, winds will trend down
significantly, reducing the threat of rapid fire spread. &&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1150 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

 - Near Critical fire weather conditions across Southwest New
   Mexico today and Tuesday. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with
   very dry air will increase risk of wildfires.

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly southeast of El Paso
   this evening. Storm chances will be limited to areas east of
   the US-54 corridor through the week.

 - Temperatures will be typical of early July, with lowland highs
   in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Upper low over the Northern Rockies shows a jet streak ejecting
over the Dakotas, which was our wind-maker last weekend. A
secondary wave currently over the Sierra Madres in CA will cross
the Four Corners on Tuesday. Strong high pressure has begun to
develop over the Mississippi/Ohio river valleys, which will be the
prevailing weather pattern through at least this Friday.

Overall, breezy southwest flow will continue across Southern New
Mexico and Far West Texas next few days, keeping much of SW NM
dry. Lee surface low formation will be over central CO today and
Tuesday, with a surface trough extending south across the western
half of NM. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph can be expected, with a
few gusts up to 35 mph each afternoon. This has caused a drying
trend for Southwest New Mexico, with no rain chances through the
week ahead.

More favorable moisture exists further east across West Texas and
the Eastern New Mexico Plains, due to southerly flow aloft
pulling a plume of moisture up out of northern Mexico.
Precipitable water values 1.0-1.2" and surface dewpoints in the
upper 40s/lower 50s will be enough for some isolated (20-30%
coverage) showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Locally, this
will affect areas southeast of El Paso only such as Hudspeth
County. Sacramento Mountains in Otero County could also see a few
showers late this week. Storms are not expected be severe, but
could produce gusty winds and blowing dust. Afternoon temperatures
will be typical of late June, with lowland highs in the upper 90s
to 100 degrees.

Overall, looks like a warm and dry week for the majority of the
forecast area, with moisture limited just too far east. Decent
chance El Paso and Las Cruces stay dry through the Independence
Day holiday, with temperatures warming back toward the 100-104
range again by the latter half of this week.

&&