It's Official - El Niño Has Arrived - Wet Weather Ahead.
May 10, 2026.
Cloudcroft, New Mexico.
It's now official: El Niño has developed in the eastern Pacific Ocean. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center announced this morning.
El Niño starts with westerly winds across the equatorial Pacific. Those winds blow warm surface waters eastward, creating a warm pool in the eastern tropical Pacific. That heats the air above, causing it to rise and triggering a chain reaction that reshuffles key weather patterns in the global atmosphere.
This could be one of the strongest, if not the strongest, El Niño since recordkeeping began in 1950. Some have speculated that it may even be stronger than the historic El Niño of 1877 that killed over 50 million people.
El Niño starts with westerly winds across the equatorial Pacific. Those winds blow warm surface waters eastward, creating a warm pool in the eastern tropical Pacific. That heats the air above, causing it to rise and triggering a chain reaction that reshuffles key weather patterns in the global atmosphere.
This could be one of the strongest, if not the strongest, El Niño since recordkeeping began in 1950. Some have speculated that it may even be stronger than the historic El Niño of 1877 that killed over 50 million people.
The 1877–1878 El Niño event was the strongest El Niño on record. It contributed to widespread drought and famine in multiple countries, causing the death of more than 50 million people. Disasters associated with it include the Great Famine of 1876–1878 in India, the Grande Seca in Brazil, and the Northern Chinese Famine of 1876–1879.
El Niño is the opposite of La Niña. The two make up ENSO, or the El Niño Southern Oscillation. El Niño is the warm phase; La Niña is the cool phase. They switch every 2-7 years, give or take a few years.
What impacts will this El Niño have on the Desert Southwest, including New Mexico? Current forecasts call for slightly above-normal temperatures and above-normal rainfall for the state this summer.
El Niño is the opposite of La Niña. The two make up ENSO, or the El Niño Southern Oscillation. El Niño is the warm phase; La Niña is the cool phase. They switch every 2-7 years, give or take a few years.
What impacts will this El Niño have on the Desert Southwest, including New Mexico? Current forecasts call for slightly above-normal temperatures and above-normal rainfall for the state this summer.
After one of the driest winters on record, the rains finally came back, and May ended up being wetter than normal in some areas of the state, and June is off to a good start for most areas also. The next week to ten days look to be above normal rainfall-wise.
More often than not, El Niño has its greatest impact upon the state during the late summer, fall, and winter, and sometimes into the following spring. Some of our wettest summers, falls, and winters have occurred during strong El Niños.
A Heat Advisory is in effect for Chaves County from Noon today through 8 PM. High temps of 105F are forecast.
Roswell, Carlsbad, and El Paso officially had a high of 104 yesterday; Artesia 103. Elk checked in with 92, Ruidoso reached 87, Mountain Park 85, and Cloudcroft 77.
El Niño summers often are notorious for being very hot in New Mexico. Today will remind us of that with forecast highs in the 103 to 107 range across southeastern New Mexico, and 98 to 104 across southern New Mexico. Even the mountains won't offer much relief, with Ruidoso forecast to reach 93, Cloudcroft 81, Angel Fire 82, and Red River 79.
A cold front will stall across eastern New Mexico today but surge southward and westward tonight. Our high temps will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Friday behind the front than today's readings. Low-level moisture will increase behind the front tonight into Friday, with the dryline setting up shop along the central mountain chain.
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to break out Friday afternoon and evening over and east of the central mountain chain, then across the eastern half of the state. Some of these are forecast to become severe with large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall, along with localized flash flooding possible.
Thunderstorms will dot the landscape of the state this weekend into the first of next week.
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 - Hot temperatures persist across the area today. The hottest temperatures (highs between 104-108, locally nearing 110) will be along the Rio Grande and in the Pecos River Valley. - Temperatures cool down a touch this weekend before a cold front brings even cooler conditions early next week. - Near daily rain chances are forecast for western portions of our area through the end of the week. By early next week, rain chances become low to medium areawide. &&
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1153 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1153 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 - Hot temperatures today in the lower elevations of New Mexico (under 7000 feet) will increase the risk of heat-related illnesses for those without access to adequate cooling or hydration. - Gusty north winds in eastern New Mexico this afternoon and east winds in the Rio Grande Valley tonight will create hazardous crosswinds on roadways. - Thunderstorm chances trend higher on Friday, especially over central and eastern New Mexico. A few storms may become severe in central New Mexico Friday afternoon. Rounds of showers and storms continue each day through Tuesday. &&.SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 127 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Very dry conditions around the state along with clear skies will result in impressive diurnal temperature changes tonight. The change will be the most drastic in western NM where upper 40s this morning will make way for temps in the upper 80s and low 90s in the afternoon. The hottest temps today will be in the SE Plains where highs are forecast to top out in the triple digits. The first Heat Advisory of the year was issued for Roswell, where there is a 60% chance that the high reaches 105F. The cold front currently racing southward across Colorado and Kansas will push into far northeastern NM around sunrise, but its progress will be stalled in the central and northeast highlands thanks to westerly winds aloft mixing down to the surface. North wind gusts as high as 45 mph may occur in the eastern plains during the afternoon hours, but blowing dust shouldn`t be a concern given the recent rainfall. After sunset, the front will surge south and westward, pushing through the gaps of the central mtn chain overnight. Forecast wind gusts have trended slightly lower, but given the timing of the frontal passage, wouldn`t be surprised if winds outperform guidance. Moisture in the wake of this frontal passage will provide the energy for showers and storms on Friday afternoon. It would be a slow start to the afternoon with low clouds blanketing eastern NM, but they will eventually clear out and sfc heating should generate scattered convection. Drier convection along the Cont Divide will be falling into a dry boundary layer so rainfall will be harder to come by here and lightning strikes will pose a threat to start new fires given the very dry fuel conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 127 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 A weak shortwave will interact with anomalously high moisture content on Saturday to generate another round of scattered convection. Rain chances increase in the SW mountains, but storm chances will once again generally favor eastern NM. Another backdoor frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday will replenish moisture across eastern NM, setting the stage for a more active afternoon Sunday. Increasing westerly winds will also enhance shear, favoring the development of at least a few severe storms and pushing low to moderate rain chances westward all the way to the Arizona border. The stronger westerly flow will begin to scour out moisture on Monday and Tuesday, with rain chances trending lower from west to east. However, the advection of dry air aloft will steepen mid-level lapse rates in eastern NM, likely elevating the risk of severe storms, particularly in northeast NM as storms come off the Sangre de Cristo mountains. Drier weather is favored mid next week, but that could be short-lived as moisture sneaks back into the area from the south by the end of the workweek. &&
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1055 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 945 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 - Triple digit lowland heat again today. Heat Advisory in effect for most of El Paso County and the lower Rio Grande Valley until 9 PM MDT tonight. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible tomorrow and through the weekend, with better chances east of the Rio Grande and in the Sacramento Mountains. - Moisture will give the area some relief from the heat this weekend. Trending dry and hot again for the middle of next week. &&
Day 2 (Friday) Severe Weather Outlook.
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z (Friday)....Southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains...
Moistening southerly low-level flow, in the presence of steepening low-level lapse rates with daytime heating, may contribute to sizable CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg along/east of the Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains, through the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Raton Mesa vicinity by early Friday evening. This may become supportive of scattered thunderstorm development with potential to produce severe hail and localized strong surface gusts. Particularly closer to the southern periphery of the westerlies, near and east of the Raton Mesa, shear may become supportive of an organizing cluster propagating off the higher terrain, as a nocturnal low-level jet strengthens Friday evening. It might not be out of the question that probabilities for severe wind will need to be increased further across parts of northeastern New Mexico into southwestern Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region in later outlook updates for this period. ..Kerr.. 06/11/2026
NWS Forecast High Temps Today.
GFS 7-Day Rainfall Forecast.
ECMWF 7-Day Rainfall Forecast.
El Niño forms, expected to strengthen, say NOAA forecasters.
What does El Niño mean for U.S. weather?
El Niño tends to be strongest during the winter months, and its global impacts are typically most significant in the northern hemisphere winter. During a typical El Niño winter, the jet stream over the north Pacific Ocean tends to shift southward, bringing the storm track over the southern tier of the U.S. The southward shift in the storm track also leads to drier conditions over the Northern Rockies and Ohio and Tennessee valleys. For temperatures, El Niño often leads to a warmer-than-usual winter over the northern U.S.
“Every El Niño is not the same; each one is unique with its own imprint on our weather,” said Ken Graham, director, NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS). "Advanced monitoring and an improved understanding of El Niño patterns allow the NWS to better predict and better prepare the public and our core partners for what is to come.”
Usual impacts of El Niño can include:
- Stronger upper-level winds that tend to suppress storm and hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin, while weaker winds tend to enhance tropical development in the eastern and central Pacific basins.
- Stormier weather is more likely in the Southern U.S., with chances of both rain and snow increased during El Niño winters.
- High tide flooding could become a higher risk in parts of the U.S., especially on the West Coast.
- Changes in the migration of fish and other oceanic organisms, with warm water species moving north while cold water species move farther north or into deeper waters. These behavioral changes impact growth, survival, and reproduction.
- Past El Niño episodes have also enhanced the formation of harmful algal blooms along the U.S West Coast.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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