Continued Hot With Scattered T-Storms Today & Thursday

Continued Hot With Scattered T-Storms Today & Thursday - A Few Severe!

- June 24, 2026

June 23, 2026.

T-Stomrs Near Dunken.

June has been a hot one so far, with Roswell and the Caprock Raws topping out at 109. Close behind are the Artesia and Carlsbad Airports with 108. Today will be another rinse and repeat day as far as heat goes, with highs across southern and southeastern New Mexico ranging from near 100 to 107. As the monsoonal high shifts east of New Mexico into the Tennessee River Valley by next Tuesday, our highs will start easing down a few degrees next week...mid to upper 90's.

As the high shifts east, an unusually deep and strong late-season upper-level trough of low pressure will dig southward into the Great Basin and northern Rockies by this weekend. This will increase the southwesterly flow aloft over New Mexico. Dry and windy weather will impact central and northern New Mexico this weekend with an increased risk of rapid fire spread.

A few widely scattered to scattered t-storms will dot the southeastern plains, Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains this afternoon and evening and again on Thursday. A couple of these could become Marginally Severe with damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and large hail being the primary severe weather hazards. Some of the stronger severe t-storms may make it into the Roswell area late this afternoon and evening. With a northwest flow aloft its also possible that a few clusters of t-storms may form and head southeastward into the southeastern plains.

Scattered severe t-storms are forecast to break out across northeastern and eastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening. The primary severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts.

A few widely scattered dry t-storms will be possible west of the central mountain chain (Sange de Cristo, Sandia/Manzano, Capitan, Sacramento, and Guadalupe Mountains. Dry Microbursts with dry lightning strikes with very little rainfall will be the primary weather hazards.

Long-range forecast models (GFS/ECMWF) are picking up on a southerly monsoonal surge of subtropical moisture invading southern New Mexico by around next Tuesday and spreading northward and westward into the state next week into the 4th of July holiday weekend. This is a first look and a week or more away, so nothing is set in stone yet. However, it is encouraging to see the possibility that our annual summer monsoon will kick off just in time for the fireworks, or hopefully before, to minimize the fire danger.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Hazardous heat continues across the westernmost portions of the
  region, with highs largely between 100 to 110 degrees. Be sure
  to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks in the shade
  if outdoors!

- Isolated to scattered storm chances (10-30%) for portions of the
  Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the higher terrain in
  west Texas this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds and large
  hail will be the primary hazards with the strongest storms.

- Triple digit heat continues through the extended forecast, with
  a low (10-30%) chance of showers/storms across the higher
  terrain and northern Permian Basin each afternoon and evening. &&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
Issued by National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
532 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 531 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- There will be a moderate risk of heat induced illness across
  lower elevation areas each of the next seven days, except for
  localized major heat risk in some southern and eastern locations
  Wednesday, Saturday, and Sunday.

- Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage today and
  Thursday, when there will be a risk of severe storms on the
  eastern plains, and a mix of wet and dry storms west of the
  central mountain chain. Storms with lighter rain, lightning, and
  gusty downburst winds will linger into Friday.

- Dry and windy weather will develop this weekend, increasing the
  threat of rapid fire spread across much of northern and central
  New Mexico. &&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
517 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...


.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 5:15 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

 - Hot temperatures this week, with most of the lowlands above 100
   degrees. Widespread Heat Advisories in effect today. Heat
   Advisories in effect for southern Dona Ana, El Paso and the
   Lower Valley Thursday.

 - Some moisture gives the area, mostly mountains, a slight
   chance of rain Wednesday through Friday.

 - Dry and breezy conditions over the weekend will result in near
   critical fire danger. &&

GFS 500 Millibar (18,000' MSL) Analysis.

(At 6 AM MDT This Morning).