Scattered To Numerous Showers & T-Storms Today Into The End Of The Week.
Looking East From C-Hill.
A Haboob Approaching Carlsbad From The East-Southeast.
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Welcome to the beginning of the meteorological summer (June 1st - Sept 30th). And a wet one at that. Is this also the start of our much-talked-about and anticipated El Niño? Maybe.
This week promises to be wet to very wet across much of the state starting today. A cluster of thunderstorms (mesoscale convective system or MCS) developed along the east slopes of the northern Sacramento Mountains yesterday afternoon, then drifted southeast out into the Pecos Valley. As of sunrise this morning, a few scattered showers from this complex continued north of the Ruidoso area.
A messy upper air pattern exists over the Desert Southwest this morning and will basically persist through the end of this week. With a series of mid-upper level short wave troughs of low pressure sliding across the region, a weak closed mid-upper level low develops over the Baja Region today, then slides eastward into northern Mexico by the end of the week.
Abundant low-level moisture borne upon southeasterly upslope flow from the Gulf has pushed westward up against the east slopes of the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains this morning and will eventually push west of the mountains this week. Dew point temperatures across West Texas and southeastern and eastern New Mexico are in the mid-60s this morning.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to break out today and persist into the early hours of Wednesday morning. Another complex of thunderstorms (mesoscale convective system or MCS) is expected to develop first over the mountains, and then it will move over southeastern New Mexico tonight.
A few of these thunderstorms may become severe along and east of the central mountain chain eastward out onto the northeastern, eastern, and southeastern plains today into this evening. Some of the stronger storms will produce large hail, but the main severe weather threat will be damaging winds. Wet and dry microbursts will be possible. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning will accompany any thunderstorm that develops.
Another concern will be heavy to very heavy rainfall, even excessive in some locations today into at least Wednesday. Which of course raises the concerns for flash flooding. The recent burn scar areas will be especially vunerable, as well as those locations downstream from them. Particularly in the Ruidoso, Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon areas, and the Capitan Mountains, to name a few.
Flash flooding will be a possibility this week just about anywhere from the central mountain chain eastward out onto the plains.
Forecast models are in somewhat of a state of mayhem given the transition to El Niño conditions. Model forecasts of rainfall totals this week are quite varied, but in general they paint storm totals of 1" to 3" with pockets of perhaps 4" to 6". Training thunderstorms (one after another in a short period of time) would be the most likely to produce the higher totals. As would any location that sees multiple daily rounds of heavy rainfall.
Some locations may see heavy to excessive rainfall this week while other nearby areas not so much. More often than not its a case of feast or famine with these types of setups.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for Lincoln County from 11 AM MDT this morning through this evening. Rainfall amounts of an inch per hour or more are possible. Additional Flash Flood Watches may be issued by our local National Weather Service Offices for parts of the state today into the end of the week.
How do you break a six-year drought? With a strong to very strong El Niño. We are due, and New Mexico has a long history of flash flooding. Southeastern New Mexico and the nearby Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains are especially subject to flash flooding. Most flash flood deaths occur at night and in vehicles when it is harder to determine the depth of flood waters over roadways.
Remember: Turn Around - Don't Drown!
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 645 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 641 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026 - Today will be the last day with highs in the 90s. Temperatures are cooler the rest of the week only reaching the 80s. - Rain chances increase from the Guadalupe to the Davis mountains this afternoon and spread east overnight. There will be a good chance for rainfall over much of the area the remainder of the week, with localized flash flooding the main threat. &&
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 541 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 536 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026 - Thunderstorms will occur daily through Saturday along and east of the Continental Divide with lightning, erratic downburst winds, hail, heavy downpours, and a risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars. - Daily scattered storms over western New Mexico will produce cloud-to-ground lightning with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts near 50 mph, little or no rain at the surface, and a risk of new fire starts through Friday. &&
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 548 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 528 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026 - A surge of gulf moisture, from the east, residing over the Borderland Tuesday through Saturday will bring the Borderland region daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The best chances will be Tuesday and Wednesday with a risk of heavy rain and flash flooding along and east of the Rio Grande. Strong winds and hail will be possible as well. - Beginning Sunday, and lasting into next week, a ridge of high pressure will settle over the Borderland. This will bring a warmer and drier pattern to the region. Lowland areas will likely see their first 100 degree highs of the year. &&
Short Range Ensemble Mean (SREF) Rainfall Forecast.
National Blend Of Models (NBM) Rainfall Forecast.
(As Of 7 AM MDT This Morning).
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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