Brrrr This Morning - Decent Winter Storm Shaping Up Midweek?


November 30, 2023.
Just South Of Whites City, NM.
A Dissipating Snow Shower Over The East Slopes 
Of The Guadalupe Mountains Left This Rainbow Behind.

Brrrr - It Was Cold This Morning.





One of the coldest mornings of the season occurred this morning. So far the lowest overnight low temperature that I can find is the -16F recorded at the Hidden Valley automated weather station (8,470') in the Valles Caldera, west of Los Alamos. 

Other locally reported low temperatures include the following:

Sacramento Personal Weather Station (PWS) - Pinehurst 4F.
Bell Canyon PWS NW Of Mayhill 6F.
Ruidoso PWS - White Mountain Meadows 7F.
Pierce Canyon PWS 9F.
Carrizozo NMCC Station 9F.
Timberon PWS 9F.

Mescal Raws Near Mescalero 10F.
Nogal PWS 11F. 
Weed PWS 11F.
Walker Canyon PWS 13F.
Ruidoso PWS 13F.
Alto PWS 14F.

Hagerman NMCC 15F.
Dexter NMCC 16F.
Tatum PWS 17F. 
Dunken Raws 18F.
Cottonwood PWS - NW Of Artesia 18F. 
Artesia ASC NMCC 19F.
Carlsbad Airport ASOS 19F.
Roswell Airport ASOS 19F.

Our Home In NW Carlsbad 21F. 

Midweek Winter Storm Could Be A Strong One!


Valid At 5 PM MST Thursday.

GFS 500 Millibar (18,000' MSL) Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Thursday.


Valid Wednesday Through Friday.

European (ECMWF) Forecast Storm Total Precipitation Totals.

Valid Wednesday Through Friday.

Canadian (GEM) Forecast Storm Total Precipitation Totals.

Valid Wednesday Through Friday.

National Blend Of Models (NBM) Forecast Storm Total Precipitation Amounts.

Valid Wednesday Through Friday.

Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Forecast Storm Total Precipitation Amounts.

Valid Wednesday Through Friday.


Valid Wednesday Through Friday.

European (ECMWF) Forecast Storm Total Snowfall Amounts.

Valid Wednesday Through Friday.

Canadian (GEM) Forecast Storm Total Snowfall Amounts.


National Blend Of Models (NBM) Forecast Storm Total Precipitation Amounts.

Valid Wednesday Through Friday.

How Much Rain - How Much Snow - How Cold?

It appears that a fairly strong winter storm will impact New Mexico and nearby areas Tuesday night into Friday. The computer forecast models are still arguing over the details as far as the storm track, total precipitation, total snowfall, and just how cold the storm will be or not. 

Unless something changes in the model forecasts much of the state will get from this storm, some of really wet. As of this Sunday morning the most widespread and the heaviest rainfall and snowfall will occur from the central mountain chain eastward into Texas. Especially over the northern, central, and south-central mountains (the Sac's) eastward into West Texas.

We are three to four days away from the seeing the first impacts from this winter storm so don't get too caught in the details of the forecast maps above. How all of this plays out will in part be determined just exactly where and how fast the mid-upper level closed/cutoff low aloft tracks over the state next week.

This morning's runs by the models (GFS, GEM, ECMWF) are in fairly close agreement of the track and speed of the closed low through Wednesday night. Then differ somewhat Thursday into Friday. 

As always is the case with these types of winter storms that take the southern route across the state/area, just how far south it tracks will be important. Basically the further the south the storm goes the better the chances for snow further south into the eastern and southeastern plains, as well as the Capitan, Sacramento, and Guadalupe mountains. 

Low level easterly upslope flow will increase and advect lost of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Texas into the area beginning Tuesday night. This will certainly add fuel to the storm. 

Early model forecasts are hinting at moderate to heavy amounts of fairly widespread rainfall and snowfall for beginning parts of the state eastward into West Texas Tuesday night or Wednesday, and continuing into Friday. 1" to 2" rainfall totals look possible across the eastern one half of the state, east of the central and south-central mountain chain, below 6,000'.

Early model forecasts are also hinting that heavy snowfall could be fairly widespread across parts of northern, northeastern, and eastern New Mexico above 6,000'. For now it appears that the southeastern plains will remain too warm (temps in the 40's to near 50) for snowfall.

Snow levels will likely vary between daytime and night. So some locals near the 6,000' to 7,000' level or so may see rain during the daytime, then mixing with, or changing over to snow at night. Snow levels are not set in stone and could be lower or higher depending upon the storm track. 

Early model snowfall total forecasts indicate that locations above 7,000' could end up with heavy snowfall from this storm with some totals possibly in the 6" to 18" range.  

This storm should add to the holiday cheer for those who love snow and winter weather. 

Enough atmospheric instability may help produce a few thunderstorms over parts of the area Wednesday into Thursday. Some of you may even be lucky enough to see some thundersnow. 

Nothing is set in stone yet. Forecasts will change as model adjustments occur, and a clearer picture of what, when, and where the storm will track. So please keep abreast of your areas of interest this upcoming week via my weather web page, your local National Weather Service Office web pages, and or favorite media outlets. This storm has the potential to have significant impacts to travel across parts of New Mexico and nearby areas Wednesday into Friday.

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

Comments

Current NWS Watches/Warnings In Effect

New Mexico

Chaves County Plains & Mtn's

Eddy County

Culberson County

Lea County

Lincoln County

Otero County

Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Overview

Current Watches In Effect

SPC Mesoscale Discussions

NWS Regional Radar

NWS Regional Radar

GOES-East - Sector view: Southern Rockies - GEOColor

Current US Temps

Current US Wind Chill/Heat Index Temperatures

NWS Midland Radar

NWS Midland Regional Forecast

NWS Midland Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Radar

Cannon AFB Radar

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS El Paso Radar

Holloman AFB Radar

NWS El Paso Regional Forecast

NWS El Paso Regional Forecast

NWS Lubbock Radar

NWS Lubbock Regional Forecast

NWS Lubbock Regional Forecast

NWS Forecast High Temps Today

NWS Forecast Low Temps Tonight

24-Hour Maximum Heat Index Temperature Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Storm Total Rainfall Forecast

NWS Midland Storm Total Rainfall Forecast

NWS El Paso Storm Total Rainfall Forecast

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures & Rainfall

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures & Rainfall