Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Flip Flop Time With The Models Forecasts Of Next Weeks Storm.



500 MB Forecast Valid @ 6 AM MDT Monday.

500 MB Forecast Valid @ 6 AM MDT Tuesday.

500 MB Forecast Valid @ 6 AM MDT Wednesday.

Temperature Anomaly Departures From Normal.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Wednesday.

Accumulated Snowfall Valid @ 6 PM MDT Wednesday.


500 MB Forecast Valid @ 6 AM MDT Monday.

500 MB Forecast Valid @ 6 AM MDT Tuesday.

500 MB Forecast Valid @ 6 AM MDT Wednesday.

Temperature Anomaly Departures From Normal.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Wednesday.

Total Snowfall Valid @ 6 PM MDT Wednesday.


500 MB Forecast Valid @ 6 AM MDT Monday.

500 MB Forecast Valid @ 6 AM MDT Tuesday.

500 MB Forecast Valid @ 6 AM MDT Wednesday.

Accumulated Snowfall Valid @ 6 PM MDT Wednesday.


This mornings 12Z/6 AM MDT runs of the computer forecast models concerning our potential Halloween winter-like storm is interesting to say the least. By sunrise Wednesday morning the GFS has the center of the mid-level closed low over the northern Texas Panhandle. Meanwhile the European model has it over southern Nevada, and the Canadian model has it centered over northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota. That's a lot of  variability on just where the storm is going to be located by Wednesday. 


So its no wonder that forecasters are already struggling with this storm. Since we are talking about a storm that does not yet exist, one that is forecast by the models to spin out of the deep mid-upper level low parked over the Gulf of Alaska, then ride over the top of the ridge into the northwestern territories of Canada this weekend. And then drop southward into the Pacific by Sunday and Monday, we can yet expect to see the models flip flop around on their forecasts with this storm. 

We are in that transitory period between fall and winter which often gives the models fits with their forecasts concerning these winter-like storms. This one has a lot of potential to be a nasty storm possibly producing some very heavy snows from the Rockies eastward into the plains states next week.

Just what impacts it will have on New Mexico and surrounding areas is not yet clear. Much colder air will accompany the storm when it arrives by mid week, but who gets snow and how much is still very much up in the air. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction! 

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Dangerous Sunspot AR3112

Dangerous Sunspot AR3112
WHEN WILL THE NEXT CME ARRIVE? A magnetic filament in the sun's southrn hemisphere erupted on Oct. 4th, hurling part of itself into space. The emerging CME will pass mostly to the south of our planet, but a fraction could graze Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for minor geomagnetic storms and auroras on that date.

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