New Daily Record Highs Possible Today Into Monday.

- December 01, 2012

GFS 12Z/5 AM MST 500 MB Analysis This Morning.

Take a look at the 500 millibar (18,000' MSL) map above. The flow aloft over New Mexico and the southwestern U.S. is zonal, or from the west to the east. This means that the jet stream is located well north of the state. With no dips in the jet stream to the south, no storms are entering the state. No storms, with a zonal flow aloft means lots of warm and dry conditions. So until the jet stream buckles, and sends storms southward into the southwest, then more of what we've been experiencing (above normal temps and dry conditions) is on tap for at least the next week to ten days.

NWS Mesonet High Temperatures Reported Friday.

New Daily Record High Temps Set On Friday.

This Weekend's Forecast.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Midland NWS Office.

Maps Are Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Today's Forecast Temp Departures From Normal.

GFS 12Z/5 AM MST Forecast Issued This Morning.

Today's Forecast Temp Departures From Normal.

ECMWF 00Z/5 PM MST Forecast Issued Yesterday.

Sunday's Forecast Temp Departures From Normal.

GFS 12Z/5 AM MST Forecast Issued Today.

Sunday's Forecast Temp Departures From Normal.

ECMWF 00Z/5 PM MST Forecast Issued Yesterday.

Not only are our temperatures continuing to average some 10 to 20 degrees above normal, but much of the nation is stuck in this trend also. Our high temps here in southeastern New Mexico are forecast to range from the upper 70's to the low 80's today and tomorrow. A few locations may break or tie their daily record high temps today and tomorrow.

Overall there aren't any significant changes anticipated in our local weather for the upcoming week. A weak cold front will enter the area on Tuesday which will knock our daytime highs back down into the 60's. Then its back up into the 70's to near 80 for the rest of the week.

A Pattern Change Coming?

GFS Ensembles 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 11 PM MST Dec 8, 2012.

ECMWF Ensembles 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Dec 8, 2012.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Surface Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Monday December 10, 2012.

We may see a pattern change in about a week to ten days. Both the European (ECMWF) and the U.S. GFS Ensemble model forecasts, indicate that a trough of low pressure at the mid-levels of the atmosphere (the 500 millibar level), will buckle over the Western U.S. by December 8th. The GFS model is further west and deeper with this trough of low pressure than the ECMWF model. So colder temps may be coming our way.

Local Climate Data For December 1st.
(Click On The Images To Enlarge them).