Changes In The Storm Track - A White Christmas After All?

Water Vapor Satellite Image At 12:15 PM MST.

RUC 500 MB Analysis At 18Z/11 AM MST This Morning.

RUC 500 MB Forecast Valid At 12Z/5 AM MST Christmas Morning.

NCEP NAM 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At 12Z/5 AM MST Christmas Morning. 

NCEP NAM Temp Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM MST Christmas Evening.

There are some interesting developments taking place with our next inbound Winter Storm to affect the state tonight into Christmas Day. Currently the upper-level short wave trough of low pressure is located over northern Idaho and stretches southward into northern Nevada. The strongest winds aloft are still on the west side of this storm, therefore it will continue digging southward and southeastward.

Even this mornings 12Z/5 AM MST run of the European (ECMWF), and the U.S. GFS models are shifting the storm just a tad bit further to the west and south than their earlier forecasts.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Christmas Morning.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Temp Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Christmas Evening.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Temp Anomaly Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Christmas Evening.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Snowfall Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Christmas Evening.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Christmas Morning.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Temp Anomaly Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Christmas Evening.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Snowfall Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Christmas Evening.

This Mornings WxCaster 12z/5 AM MST Snowfall Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Christmas Evening.

 Just how far south and west into New Mexico this storm will sink before it forms a closed low somewhere over the state by tomorrow is the million dollar question this afternoon. The latest short range model trends are bringing this potent storm further south and west than what has been forecast by the long-range models over the past week. I'm am not the least bit surprised by this, in fact I've been expecting this to happen. I think some of us in New Mexico are going to get a Christmas surprise this year...a White Christmas they weren't expecting. Just who and how much of the white stuff is still a very tough call to make at this time. 

Fire Weather Watch.

Wind Advisory For SE NM & W TX.

High Wind Warning For The Guadalupe Mtn's.

Northern New Mexico Winter Weather Advisories.

Winter Weather Message From NWS Lubbock, Texas.

A strong cold front will move southward down the eastern plains and into southeastern New Mexico late tonight into tomorrow morning. Strong gusty north to northeasterly winds will accompany the frontal passage, along with falling temperatures. There may also be areas of blowing dust for a brief time along and behind the front as it moves through. Our high temps on Christmas Day will only be in the 30's and 40's.

Light snow may also develop over parts of southeastern New Mexico late tonight into tomorrow. This will be highly dependent upon the storms track across the state. If the storm continues to dig further to the west and south, and slows down as it does so, and forms a closed upper-level low, then up go our chances of having a White Christmas. If the storm clips along as a progressive open wave or trough of low pressure, then we won't see very much to any snowfall.

As the colder airmass settles in over the area later tonight into tomorrow morning, our wind chill values will drop down into the single digits and teens. Some of the northern areas may even see these values drop below zero for a while.

As I have been saying all along don't give up on a White Christmas just yet...more on this evolving winter storm later.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction! 

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