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Monday, November 25, 2024

Thanksgiving Week Forecast.


November 2, 2024.
Shelf Cloud NE Of Carlsbad, NM.

Blog Updated At 2:22 PM MST Monday, Nov 25, 2024. 

Valid At 5 PM MST Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024.


My cover photo was taken 20 miles northeast of Carlsbad on the Hobbs Hwy (US 62/180) on November 2nd, 2024. A nice shelf cloud formed after this severe thunderstorm became outflow dominant.
A cold front will keep the eastern half of the state slightly cooler than normal today. A quick warmup will occur Tuesday and Wednesday as strong dry downsloping winds kick in along the northern and central mountains and the northeast highlands with gusts in the 50-60 mph range.
It will also be windy across southern and southeastern New Mexico especially on Wednesday with westerly gusts in the 40-50 mph range expected. Highs across southeastern New Mexico Wednesday afternoon will be som 15-20 degrees above normal with readings near 80.
These winds will likely be strong in the Guadalupe mountains on Wednesday...approaching the High Wind Warning category.
Another backdoor cold front arrives just in time for Thanksgiving. Highs across the eastern half of the state on Thanksgiving will range in the 40's in western and northern New Mexico. Near 40 in the northeastern plains, the mid 40's in eastern New Mexico, and 50-55 in southeastern New Mexico.
Light to moderate snow is forecast across parts of western, northern, and northeastern New Mexico Tuesday into Wednesday. The heaviest snows will fall over the northern mountains near Chama and Red River where 8" to 12" of new snow is possible.
Be sure and open the link to my blog post below in order to view the attached forecast maps and graphics. Have a wonderful and safe Thanksgiving everyone!


Weather History For November 25

1950 - A great storm hit the Northern and Central Appalachians with snow and high winds. Winds reached hurricane force along eastern slopes of the Appalachians, with gusts to 100 mph at Hartford CT, 110 mph at Concord NH, and 160 mph at Mount Washington NH. Heavy rain also hit the eastern slopes, with eight inches reported at Slide Mountain NY. The western slopes were buried under heavy snow. The storm produced record snowfall totals of 27.7 inches at Pittsburgh PA, and 36.3 inches at Steubenville OH. The snow, and record cold temperatures, resulted in 160 deaths. (25th-26th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
1970 - The temperature at Tallahassee, FL, dipped to 13 degrees, following a high of 40 degrees the previous day. The mercury then reached 67 degrees on the 26th, and highs were in the 70s the rest of the month. (The Weather Channel)
1983 - The Great Thanksgiving Weekend Blizzard hit Denver, CO. The storm produced 21.5 inches of snow in 37 hours, closing Stapleton Airport for 24 hours. The snow and wind closed interstate highways around Denver. Visibility at Limon CO was down to zero for 24 hours. (The Weather Channel)
1987 - An early morning thunderstorm in southeastern Texas produced high winds which rolled a mobile home east of Bay City killing two of the four occupants. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in central and eastern Texas, with nine inches reported at Huntsville, and 8.5 inches at Wimberly. Snow fell across northern and central Lower Michigan, with totals ranging up to nine inches at Cadillac. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northwest Texas during the day and into the night. Thunderstorms in Texas produced softball size hail at Alba, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Krum. Hail and high winds caused nearly five million dollars damage at Kaufman TX, and strong downburst winds derailed twenty-eight freight cars at Fruitvale TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
Lubbock & South Plains Local Weather History For November 25th...
2007: After two rounds of accumulating snow on the 22nd and 24th, the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend concluded with a final round of snowfall. The extreme southern portions of the South Plains were near the northern periphery of a significant winter storm that finally ejected east over the Permian Basin. New snow accumulations on the 25th were between 3 and 4 inches over Lynn, Terry, and Yoakum Counties, while lesser amounts of less than 1 inch were observed in the surrounding counties. Three-day storm total snow cover reached 6 inches in depth at a few locations across the southwestern South Plains. Reported snow accumulations from the winter storm on the 25th follow: 4 inches in Brownfield, 4 inches in ODonnell

Today.



Tuesday.



Wednesday.



Thanksgiving Day.



Black Friday.



Saturday.



Sunday.



NWSNDFD Storm Total Precipitation/Snowfall Forecasts.
Valid At 5 AM MST Thanksgiving Morning.


893
FXUS64 KMAF 251711
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1111 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1108 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

 - A cold front will move into the area this afternoon, bringing
   much cooler temperatures.

 - A quick warm up occurs on Wednesday with temperatures 15 to 20
   degrees above normal. There will be gusty southwest winds
   across the region with possible high winds in the Guadalupe and
   Delaware Mountains during the afternoon and evening on
   Wednesday also.

 - A cold front moves through the area during the early morning on
   Thursday, bringing below normal temperatures to the area on
   Thursday and Friday.

Winter Weather Advisory


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1032 AM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

NMZ210-261115-
/O.CON.KABQ.WW.Y.0027.241126T0600Z-241128T0000Z/
Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
1032 AM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 5 to 10 inches
  above 8500 feet, with lesser accumulations below. Winds gusting as
  high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Tusas Mountains Including Chama.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Tire chains may be
  necessary if traveling through mountain passes. Gusty winds could
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of blowing snow may reduce visibility
  below one mile.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. For the latest road
conditions, dial 511 or 1.800.432.4269, or visit http://nmroads.com.

&& $$ 11

High Wind Watch


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
138 PM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

NMZ214-215-223-229-233-261100-
/O.NEW.KABQ.HW.A.0021.241127T0300Z-241127T1500Z/
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-Central Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Guadalupe County-
138 PM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph possible.

* WHERE...Central Highlands, Guadalupe County, East Slopes Sangre de
  Cristo Mountains, Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and
  Northeast Highlands.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
  Power outages are possible. Travel will be difficult, especially
  for high profile vehicles on north to south oriented roadways.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.

&& $$ 11
154
FXUS65 KABQ 251725 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1025 AM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 940 AM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

 - Rain and mainly mountain snow showers mostly over far northern
   areas Tuesday through Wednesday night with a few to several
   inches of snow possible in the northern mountains.

 - Breezy to windy conditions return Tuesday through Wednesday,
   then colder and partly sunny on Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 227 AM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

A colder day, especially for eastern NM, compared to yesterday
behind a cold front with lighter winds. Snow develops across the
Tusa Mountains late tonight continuing through Wednesday as another
system moves across the intermountain West. Rain and snow along a
cold front across far northern areas Wednesday. Strong west winds
across the northern and central mountains and adjacent highlands
Tuesday expanding to southern high terrain areas Wednesday. High
winds gusts of around 60 mph will be possible. Colder and dry on
Thanksgiving Day. Slow warmup under mostly cloudy skies with slim
rain and snow chances across far western areas Thanksgiving Weekend.

&&
907
FXUS64 KEPZ 251120
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
420 AM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 AM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

- Dry weather through the end of the work week. Temperatures
  above normal through Wednesday before out next cool down.

- Breezy winds on Wednesday. Gusts 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon.

&&

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

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