Large Rotating Wall Cloud.
About 12 Miles North Of Dunken, NM.
16 Miles NW of Me Near The Eddy/Chaves Co Line.
A supercell thunderstorm developed fairly rapidly along the east slopes of the Sacramento mountains north of Dunken, in southwestern Chaves County on the afternoon of Saturday, Oct 19th, 2024. I chased this storm northward along St Hwy 13 all the way to Roswell. It never did produce a tornado as far as I could see but the wall cloud was very photogenic and cycled several times.
A line of intense thunderstorms developed in this after that evening and very slowly edged northeastward. Multiple training thunderstorms within this line of thunderstorms later produced the historic excess rainfall and the devastating flash flooding in Roswell. Measured rainfall totals in the city generally averaged 4" to 6". Several locations exceed 7" and a couple of reporting Personal Weather Stations (PWS) reported 8" to 10.86".
Quick Hitting Winter Storm Today Into Monday!
Moderate To Heavy Lowland Rains & Heavy Mtn Snows in Southern NM.
Blog Updated At 1:49 PM MST Sunday, Nov 17, 2024.
Blog Updated At 3:06 PM MST Sunday, Nov 17, 2024.
Valid At 5 PM MST Sunday, Nov 17, 2024.
At 8 AM MST Sunday, Nov 17, 2024.
Valid At 5 AM MST Monday, Nov 18, 2024.
Valid From 10 AM MST Sun Through 8 PM MST Sunday Night.
Precipitation Storm Totals.
Snowfall Storm Totals.
Valid Wednesday Morning.
A quick-hitting winter storm is forecast to produce fairly widespread lowland rains and high mountain snows across the state today into Monday. The heaviest rains are forecast to fall across parts of eastern, southeastern, and southern New Mexico. Local totals in a few spots where the heaviest rains fall may be in the 1" to 2" range.
The Sacramento mountains are forecast to get the heaviest snowfall from this storm. The Sunspot, Cloudcroft, and Silver Lake areas could get up to 6" from the storm. Ski Apache is currently forecast to get around a foot of fresh snow. Localized totals at the higher elevations could be higher.
The latest HRRR forecast model run at 10 AM MST this Sunday morning is rather energetic concerning its forecast snowfall totals over the Gila and Sacramento mountains. Accumulating snow should be confined to the higher elevations from 7,000' and above today into Monday morning.
As of 8 AM MST this Sunday morning the Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS Station 0.4 miles ESE reported 1.1" of snowfall overnight. The Ski Apache webcam showed about 2"-3" on the deck this morning and the Sierra Blanca Snotel is reporting 3".
Strong southwesterly winds with gusts up to around 40 mph may create localized areas of blowing and drifting snow in the higher elevations of the Sacramento mountains today into Monday morning.
Southwesterly winds sustained at around 40-50 mph with gusts near 75 mph are forecast for the Guadalupe mountains of Eddy and Culberson Counties late tonight into Monday night.
Strong westerly winds gusting up to around 40 mph are expected across the southeastern plains on Monday. Localized areas of blowing dust will develop in those locations that may not get much rain from this storm.
After the storm departs and skies clear Wednesday mornings low temperatures across the state will be some of the coldest of the season. Single-digit readings look likely in the higher mountain valleys of western and northern New Mexico. A hard freeze is also likely in most areas.
054 FXUS65 KABQ 171128 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 428 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 424 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2024 - Wetter and cooler weather today through Monday morning. Moderate snow accumulations are likely above 8,500 feet in the south-central mountains. Locally heavy rainfall could result in some minor flooding across parts of the southeast plains. - A colder disturbance will bring brisk conditions on Tuesday, with some snow showers possible in the far northern mountains to the Raton Pass along the CO border. - Milder temperatures and light winds are expected Wednesday and beyond. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 229 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2024 Rain and mountain snow will continue to develop over the southern areas this morning, then spread north and east throughout the rest of Sunday. Around 1.00 to 1.25 inches of rain is expected across the southeast plains, which may cause minor flooding to prone areas. Snow accumulation will be limited to the peaks of the Sacramento Mountains and Sangre de Cristos. The storm system exits NM through Monday afternoon, leaving behind breezy to windy northwest winds across the highlands and southeast plains. Temperatures fall behind a colder system on Tuesday, with Tuesday night seeing widespread teens and single digit lows. Clear weather is expected Wednesday and beyond with gradually rising temperatures. &&
High Wind Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1201 PM MST Sun Nov 17 2024 NMZ027-TXZ270-271-275-277-181315- /O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0026.241118T0600Z-241119T0600Z/ Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Chinati Mountains- Davis Mountains- Including the cities of Queen, Pine Springs, Fort Davis, and Guadalupe Mountains National Park 1201 PM MST Sun Nov 17 2024 /101 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024/ ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ MONDAY... * WHAT...West winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 75 mph expected. * WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New Mexico, Chinati Mountains, and Davis Mountains. * WHEN...From 11 PM MST /midnight CST/ this evening to 11 PM MST /midnight CST/ Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying light aircraft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the winds subside. Delay travel through Guadalupe Pass or find another route, if possible. Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is possible. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$Wind Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1201 PM MST Sun Nov 17 2024 NMZ028-029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-272>274- 276-278>280-181315- /O.NEW.KMAF.WI.Y.0021.241118T0900Z-241119T0300Z/ Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Central Lea County- Southern Lea County-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin- Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane- Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-Reeves County Plains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin- Including the cities of Marathon, Crane, Van Horn, Monahans, Carlsbad, Lamesa, Alpine, Stanton, Garden City, Odessa, Andrews, Jal, Marfa, Pecos, Big Lake, Lovington, Rankin, Colorado City, Mentone, Midland, Carlsbad Caverns NP, Panther Junction, Tatum, Fort Stockton, Big Bend National Park, Big Spring, Artesia, Eunice, Snyder, McCamey, Kermit, Hobbs, Seminole, Gail, and Chisos Basin 1201 PM MST Sun Nov 17 2024 /101 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024/ ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM MST /3 AM CST/ TO 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ MONDAY... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and western Texas. * WHEN...From 2 AM MST /3 AM CST/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ Monday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution and keep both hands on the steering wheel. Secure loose objects that could be damaged or blown away by strong winds. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$ Devin ChehakWind Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1245 PM MST Sun Nov 17 2024 NMZ223-226-233-237>240-180600- /O.NEW.KABQ.WI.Y.0045.241118T1600Z-241119T0000Z/ Central Highlands-South Central Mountains-Guadalupe County-De Baca County-Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- 1245 PM MST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM MST MONDAY... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Central Highlands, Eastern Lincoln County, South Central Mountains, De Baca County, Guadalupe County, Chaves County Plains, and Southwest Chaves County. * WHEN...From 9 AM to 5 PM MST Monday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs may be blown down. Expect strong crosswinds on north-to-south oriented roadways. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$ 34
Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 614 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2024 NMZ415-426-172300- /O.CON.KEPZ.WW.Y.0015.241117T1900Z-241118T1500Z/ Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range- Including the cities of Kingston, Lake Roberts, Apache Summit, Cloudcroft, and Sunspot 614 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM MST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet and Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range. * WHEN...From noon today to 8 AM MST Monday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ For additional information, visit us at http://www.weather.gov/epz GL
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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