Sunset.
November 2, 2024.Eunice, New Mexico.
Major Impacts Across New Mexico Expected
From Seasons First Widespread Major Winter Storm!
Our departing winter storm that dropped heavy snow across the northern mountains of New Mexico as of yesterday afternoon was somewhat of a dissapointment snow-wise in the Sacramento mountains. And rainfall-wise across parts of the southeastern plains.
But our next inbound major widespread winter storm should make up for it at least as far as snowfall is concerned in the Sacramento and Capitan mountains.
Canadian (GEM) 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast.
National Blend Of Models Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.
Canadian (GEM) Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid Through 5 PM MST Friday November 8, 2024.
National Blend Of Models Storm Total Precipitation Forecast.
Seasons First Widespread Major Winter
Storm To Dump Very Heavy Snowfall & Produce Near Blizzard Conditions!
The Cloudcroft NWS Climate Co-Op Station recorded a 2-day snowfall total of 2.0". While the Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS Station 0.4 miles ESE recorded 2.2". Ski Apache isn't open yet so I don't have a snowfall report from them but the Sierra Blanca Snotel nearby recorded 6.0".
The Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS Station 2.3 miles south measured .76" of rainfall and 1.0" of snowfall from the storm. The Ruidoso CoCoRaHS Station 2.3 miles southwest measured .47" of rainfall. And the Roswell CoCoRaHS Station 1.7 miles northwest measured .79". Here at our home in Carlsbad I squeezed out a meager .07".
Yet another stronger, deeper, and colder winter storm was located over Montana early this morning and is headed straight south towards New Mexico. Forecast models have the storm centered near the Four Corners by sunrise tomorrow morning, and southern New Mexico by sunrise Friday morning. It should begin lifting northeastward out of the state and into the Texas Panhandle by sunrise Saturday morning.
A strong Pacific cold front entering the Four Corners Region early this morning will move southeastward today into tomorrow morning. By sunset Wednesday the front will just about have cleared the southeastern plains headed into West Texas.
A much colder airmass will overspread the state behind the front Wednesday into Friday night. This invasion of cold air will likely bring an end to our growing season here in the southeastern plains with our first freeze Saturday morning.
Our first widespread major winter storm of the season will begin dumping snow across the western and northern areas of the state late tonight, spreading eastward and southward Wednesday into Friday. The heaviest snows are expected Wednesday night into Friday.
As it stands now (as of 3 PM MST Tuesday afternoon) the Ruidoso area may get 6" from the storm, maybe more. A foot or more of snow may fall at elevations above 7,500'. Ski Apache may measure its snowfall totals from this storm in feet rather than inches.
The Cloudcroft area is currently only forecast to get 2" to 5" between 6,000' and 7,500', and 4" to 8" above 7,500'. A dusting of snow is possible across the higher elevations of the Guadalupe mountains. Maybe more if the storm shifts a tad further south.
Parts of western, northern, northeastern, and the central mountains of New Mexico are expected to have significant impacts from this incoming major winter storm. Road closures are likely in some of these areas.
Near blizzard conditions may also develop over northeastern New Mexico and the central mountain chain! Travel in these areas could become life threatening. Blowing and drifting snow with near to whiteout conditions along with zero visibility will add to the road and highway issues. Expect some road closures. Scattered power outages may also occur.
Power outages may occur within parts of the Winter Storm Watch Area especially if the snow is wet and heavy, which may bring down power lines and tree limbs. The main impacts from this storm are expected in the Wednesday night through Friday morning time frame.
A cold rain is forecast for the southeastern plains Wednesday night into Friday morning. An isolated thunderstorm or two is also possible. At this time flash flooding is not anticipated.
I picked the Canadian (GEM) forecast model depicting the worst case scenario snowfall-wise. It is the strongest and deepest of the three (GFS, ECMWF, GEM). This modes snowfall forecasts may be too high in some areas. Right now it appears that this model forecast is guilty of over achievement in its snowfall totals. It's not an official forecast either...just a depiction of what this one model run thinks could happen. More important than it's snowfall total forecasts is the coverage of heavy snowfall.
As is always the case with our major winter storms in New Mexico any shift in the storm track and speed will have significant impacts to the state. If the storm takes a more southerly course and is strong as the GEM model thinks then the heavier snows would also shift a little further to the south and east. If a more northern track with a slightly weaker storm then less snowfall would occur.
Please note that these forecast totals may change as additional forecast model data becomes available and updated forecasts are issued by our local National Weather Service Offices. Changes in some of our local forecasts may occur so please keep up to date with the latest forecast info. Now is the time to prepare for this impactful winter storm. Don't forget about your pets if outside and your livestock or other domestic animals.
Area Road Conditions.
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043
FXUS65 KABQ 052226
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
326 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024
...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 323 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024
- A major winter storm will impact portions of the region with
very heavy snowfall in the higher terrain late tonight through
Friday. Blizzard-like conditions are possible across portions
of northeast NM and along the central mountain chain.
- A backdoor cold front will bring windy conditions Wednesday
into Thursday with well below normal temperatures lasting
through Friday.
- A slow warming and drying trend is forecast this weekend into
early next week.
&&
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 128 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 NMZ213>215-227-060400- /O.EXT.KABQ.WS.A.0015.241106T1200Z-241109T0000Z/ Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass- 128 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater than 12 inches possible, except greater than 24 inches above 8500 feet. Higher totals likely over the peaks. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass. * WHEN...From late tonight through Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel is discouraged. Many road closures are likely. Avoid traveling if possible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of blowing snow may limit visibility to near zero at times, creating dangerous travel conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 128 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 NMZ212-218-221>223-229-060400- /O.CON.KABQ.WS.A.0015.241107T0000Z-241108T1200Z/ Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-Santa Fe Metro Area-Sandia and Manzano Mountains including Edgewood-Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-Northeast Highlands- 128 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater than 6 inches, except greater than 12 inches above 7500 feet. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Sandia and Manzano Mountains including Edgewood, Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass, Santa Fe Metro Area, Estancia Valley, Central Highlands, and Northeast Highlands. * WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Some roads may be closed. Significant travel delays are possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of blowing snow may limit visibility to near zero at times, creating dangerous travel conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 128 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 NMZ228-230-231-060400- /O.EXT.KABQ.WS.A.0015.241107T0000Z-241109T0000Z/ Far Northeast Highlands-Union County-Harding County- 128 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater than 10 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Far Northeast Highlands, Harding County, and Union County. * WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Some roads may be closed. Significant travel delays are possible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of blowing snow may limit visibility to near zero at times, creating dangerous travel conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 128 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 NMZ204-206-211-216-060400- /O.CON.KABQ.WS.A.0015.241107T0000Z-241108T1200Z/ Northwest Highlands-West Central Mountains-Jemez Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- 128 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater than 5 inches possible, except greater than 10 inches above 7500 feet. * WHERE...Jemez Mountains, Northwest Highlands, Upper Rio Grande Valley, and West Central Mountains. * WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Tire chains may be necessary if traveling through mountain passes. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 128 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 NMZ224-226-232-233-239-060400- /O.CON.KABQ.WS.A.0015.241107T0000Z-241108T1200Z/ South Central Highlands-South Central Mountains-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-Eastern Lincoln County- 128 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater than 6 inches possible, except greater than 12 inches above 7500 feet. * WHERE...Eastern Lincoln County, South Central Highlands, South Central Mountains, Guadalupe County, and Eastern San Miguel County. * WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Tire chains may be necessary if traveling through mountain passes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of blowing snow may limit visibility to near zero at times, creating dangerous travel conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && GuyerURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 128 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 NMZ208-060400- /O.EXA.KABQ.WS.A.0015.241107T0000Z-241108T1200Z/ Southwest Mountains- 128 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater than 5 inches possible, except greater than 10 inches above 7500 feet. * WHERE...Southwest Mountains. * WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Tire traction will be reduced. Extend the distance between your vehicle and the vehicle in front of you. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1253 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 NMZ426-060400- /O.NEW.KEPZ.WS.A.0001.241107T0600Z-241108T0600Z/ Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range- Including the cities of Lake Roberts and Kingston 1253 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches from 6000 to 7500 feet and 4 to 8 inches possible above 7500 feet, mainly in the Blacks Range. * WHERE...Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && For additional information, visit us at http://www.weather.gov/epz JGURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1253 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 NMZ414>416-060400- /O.NEW.KEPZ.WS.A.0001.241107T0600Z-241108T1800Z/ West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Including the cities of Mountain Park, Mayhill, Timberon, Sunspot, Sacramento, Pinon, Apache Summit, Mescalero, and Cloudcroft 1253 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches below 7500 feet and 4 to 8 inches possible above 7500 feet. * WHERE...Sacramento Mountains. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded. &&URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 128 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 NMZ224-226-232-233-239-060400- /O.CON.KABQ.WS.A.0015.241107T0000Z-241108T1200Z/ South Central Highlands-South Central Mountains-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-Eastern Lincoln County- 128 PM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater than 6 inches possible, except greater than 12 inches above 7500 feet. * WHERE...Eastern Lincoln County, South Central Highlands, South Central Mountains, Guadalupe County, and Eastern San Miguel County. * WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Tire chains may be necessary if traveling through mountain passes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of blowing snow may limit visibility to near zero at times, creating dangerous travel conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && Guyer
077 NOUS45 KABQ 051634 PNSABQ NMZ201>241-060434- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 934 AM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 ... 2 DAY SNOWFALL REPORTS FOR NOVEMBER 5, 2024 AT 9:30 AM MST... Location Amount Time/Date ...New Mexico... ...Bernalillo County... Ponderosa 2 WNW 6.0 in 0700 AM 11/05 Sedillo 1 S 5.8 in 0700 AM 11/05 Sedillo 1 WSW 5.5 in 0700 AM 11/05 Ponderosa 1 WSW 4.5 in 0700 AM 11/05 Miera 2 SW 4.3 in 0600 AM 11/05 Sandia Park 3.7 ESE 3.6 in 0700 AM 11/05 3 W Ponderosa Pines 3.5 in 0218 PM 11/04 Sedillo 1 ESE 3.5 in 0700 AM 11/05 4 SE Sandia Park 2.5 in 0356 PM 11/04 1 ENE San Antonito 2.5 in 0508 PM 11/04 Miera 2 ESE 2.5 in 0800 AM 11/05 Sandia Heights 0.5 S 2.0 in 0700 AM 11/05 1 NNE Sandia Heights 2.0 in 0800 AM 11/05 Chilili 2 N 1.8 in 0700 AM 11/05 Sandia Park 0.5 S 1.5 in 0900 AM 11/04 ...Catron County... Datil 2.0 W 4.3 in 0700 AM 11/05 Quemado 8.0 NE 1.5 in 0800 AM 11/05 ...Cibola County... 9 WSW Bluewater Lake State P 3.0 in 0100 PM 11/04 El Morro 2 WSW 2.0 in 0900 AM 11/04 Ramah 3.1 ENE 1.3 in 0700 AM 11/04 Grants 1.6 NE 1.0 in 0700 AM 11/05 ...Colfax County... 5 S Cimarron Canyon State Pa 15.0 in 0456 PM 11/04 Angel Fire 4.1 NNW 9.0 in 0926 AM 11/04 2 WNW Angel Fire 9.0 in 0454 PM 11/04 Eagle Nest 5.2 in 0409 PM 11/04 3 N Sugarite 4.0 in 0107 PM 11/04 2 SE Enchanted Forest XC Ski 4.0 in 0459 PM 11/04 7 SE Vermejo Park 3.5 in 0511 PM 11/04 ...Lincoln County... 5 SW Bonito Lake 6.0 in 0440 PM 11/04 ...Los Alamos County... 1 NNE Pajarito Mountain Ski 10.0 in 0300 PM 11/04 Los Alamos 1.4 E 3.1 in 0700 AM 11/05 ...Mora County... Chacon 2.1 ENE 7.4 in 0700 AM 11/05 Ledoux 7.0 in 1256 PM 11/04 Wagon Mound 3.2 WNW 6.0 in 0700 AM 11/05 Guadalupita 1.0 in 1258 PM 11/04 ...Rio Arriba County... 7 ESE Cuba 8.0 in 0300 PM 11/04 9 E Cuba 8.0 in 0300 PM 11/04 Chama 23.3 SSW 5.1 in 0700 AM 11/05 11 NNW Canon Plaza 5.0 in 0300 PM 11/04 7 E Canjilon 4.0 in 0300 PM 11/04 8 SSW San Miguel 3.0 in 0300 PM 11/04 Chama 12.3 SSE 3.0 in 0700 AM 11/05 ...San Juan County... 5 SSW Toadlena 3.0 in 1140 AM 11/03 ...San Miguel County... 8 SW Rociada 16.0 in 0448 PM 11/04 Sapello 13.0 in 1200 PM 11/04 Gallinas 12.0 in 0252 PM 11/04 San Pablo 2 E 7.4 in 0700 AM 11/05 Las Vegas 6.5 in 0700 AM 11/05 1 WSW Las Vegas 4.0 in 1244 PM 11/04 Las Vegas 3.5 in 1239 PM 11/04 Rowe 2.7 NNW 3.5 in 0700 AM 11/05 1 N Monastery Lake 2.0 in 0242 PM 11/04 ...Sandoval County... Jemez Springs 6.6 ENE 11.0 in 0700 AM 11/05 Torreon Navajo Mission 3.0 in 1005 PM 11/04 Jemez Springs 2.8 SSW 2.8 in 0800 AM 11/05 Placitas 0.3 SSE 2.0 in 0700 AM 11/05 Cuba 2.1 NNW 1.8 in 0700 AM 11/04 ...Santa Fe County... 2 SSE Santa Fe Ski Area 8.0 in 0447 PM 11/04 2 N Golden 5.0 in 0800 AM 11/04 3 SSE Hyde Memorial State Pa 4.0 in 0445 PM 11/04 Santa Fe 3.6 ENE 3.5 in 0800 AM 11/04 Glorieta 2.4 E 3.3 in 0700 AM 11/05 2 N Santa Fe 3.2 in 0700 AM 11/05 Santa Fe 2.9 ENE 2.5 in 0730 AM 11/04 4 SE Golden 2.0 in 0236 PM 11/04 Santa Fe Seton 1.2 in 0630 AM 11/05 Santa Fe 7 SW 1.1 in 0700 AM 11/05 Madrid 0.6 SSW 1.0 in 0700 AM 11/05 2 NNE Santa Fe 1.0 in 0700 AM 11/05 Santa Fe 3.3 WNW 1.0 in 0800 AM 11/05 Santa Fe 3.6 WNW 1.0 in 0800 AM 11/05 Santa Fe 1.1 ENE 1.0 in 0837 AM 11/05 ...Socorro County... Magdalena 28.1 WSW 3.8 in 0700 AM 11/05 Magdalena 2.4 SSE 3.2 in 0700 AM 11/05 ...Taos County... 5 SSE Llano Largo 11.0 in 0451 PM 11/04 Shady Brook 5 E 9.0 in 0700 AM 11/05 Tres Ritos 6.0 in 0452 PM 11/04 5 WNW Eagle Nest Lake State 6.0 in 0457 PM 11/04 1 SSW Taos Ski Valley 3.0 in 1113 AM 11/03 4 NNW Tres Ritos 3.0 in 0453 PM 11/04 9 NE Enchanted Forest XC Ski 3.0 in 0500 PM 11/04 Red River 1.5 in 0103 PM 11/04 ...Torrance County... 3 SSW Encino 2.0 in 0302 PM 11/04 Edgewood 3.2 S 2.0 in 0600 AM 11/05 1 S Clines Corners 1.5 in 0303 PM 11/04 3 NW Moriarty 1.0 in 0231 PM 11/04 ...Union County... Grenville 7.2 ENE 5.0 in 0612 AM 11/05 Des Moines 2.5 in 0143 PM 11/04 &&
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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