Just Outside Of Hondo, New Mexico.
Model Confusion Continues.
Flip-flopping all over the place best describes the latest forecast model runs (as of 5 AM MST this Thursday morning). Which is fairly common when they are trying to nail down their forecasts on a winter storm that is still at least six to ten days away from impacting us. Anyway, this is a first look at what appears to be some significant changes in our weather for next week.
Ahead of next week's colder and stormier weather, our high temps on Saturday are forecast to climb up into the mid 70's here in southeastern New Mexico and near 80 across parts of West Texas. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Saturday for parts of New Mexico.
A strong cold front is forecast to move southeastward into New Mexico during the day Saturday. A reinforcing shot of cold air moves in Sunday night. Our temperatures are forecast to be drop below normal beginning Sunday and continuing through all of next week. How cold it will get is still in question and will be until the models resolve their differences on the evolution, timing, and track of the incoming winter storm and associated arctic airmass.
How much snow falls, when, and where is still uncertain as of this writing. It all depends upon where an upper-level low forms, where it tracks, and how fast it hangs around the region next week. Cold air will be in place so we will see mostly snow instead of rain if the storm tracks right.
Snow may develop across northern New Mexico as early as next Monday. Then spread southward over the state and area Tuesday into Thursday. I have little doubt that all of this will change as we get closer to the first of next week. So for now take all of this with a grain of salt. Changes are coming but to what extent I won't know until late this weekend of the first of next week.
There are some indications that next week's winter storm could bring moderate to heavy snow to parts of New Mexico and nearby areas. And given the winter drought this would be welcome news for most of us.
(5 PM MST Thursday, Jan 2nd - 5 PM MST Saturday, Jan 5th).
U.S. (GFS) 500 Millibar (18,000' MSL) Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Wednesday, January 8, 2025.
European (ECMWF) 500 Millibar (18,000' MSL) Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Wednesday, January 8, 2025.
Canadian (GEM) Millibar (18,000' MSL) Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Wednesday, January 8, 2025.
Friday.
Saturday.
Sunday.
Monday.
Tuesday.
Wednesday.
(Next Tuesday - Next Friday).
National Blend Of Models Snowfall Forecast.
U.S. GFS Snowfall Forecast.
ECMWF Snowfall Forecast.
Fire Weather Watch
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 210 PM MST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL NM, SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS, NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS, AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY, VERY STRONG WINDS, AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE... .Strong southwest to west winds associated with a weather system clipping northern NM will bring in drier air and well above normal temperatures to the state Saturday. The combination of strong winds and minimum humidity values of 10 to 15 percent will exist across the west central plateau and highlands, southwest mountains, and most areas along and east of the central mountain chain. The resulting critical fire weather will increase the risk of rapid fire spread in these areas. Winds will slowly decrease and relative humidity values increase Saturday evening ending the critical fire threat. NMZ104-105-109-123>125-031400- /O.NEW.KABQ.FW.A.0001.250104T1700Z-250105T0100Z/ Northeast Plains-West Central Mountains- West Central Basin and Range-Northeast Highlands- Sandia and Manzano Mountains-Central Highlands- 210 PM MST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID SATURDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has issued a Fire Weather Watch...which is in effect from Saturday morning through mid Saturday evening. * AREA AND TIMING...This includes the Northeast Plains (Zone 104), West Central Mountains (Zone 105), West Central Basin and Range (Zone 109), Northeast Highlands (Zone 123), Sandia and Manzano Mountains (Zone 124), and Central Highlands (Zone 125) late Saturday morning through mid Saturday evening. * 20 FOOT WINDS...West-northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 35 to 55 mph. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Minimum values between 10 and 15 percent. * IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the field of this Fire Weather Watch. && $$URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 104 PM MST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER SATURDAY FOR SACRAMENTO AND CAPITAN MOUNTAINS MAINLY BELOW 7500 FEET... .An upper level storm system will sweep through the region Saturday afternoon into the evening with strengthening surface low pressure across the Texas panhandle. This will lead to windy conditions across the Sacramento and Capitan mountains with 20-foot speeds of 20 to 25 MPH and gusts up to 50 MPH. These winds will combine with minimum RH values ranging from 10 to 20 percent with ERC values within the 75-90th percentile. Thus, low-end critical fire conditions are expected though mainly below 7500 feet where lowest minimum RH values are expected to occur. NMZ113-031400- /O.NEW.KEPZ.FW.A.0001.250104T1900Z-250105T0100Z/ Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- 104 PM MST Thu Jan 2 2025 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE SACRAMENTO AND CAPITAN MOUNTAINS... The National Weather Service in El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa has issued a Fire Weather Watch, which is in effect Saturday afternoon. * AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zone 113 Capitan and Sacramento Mountains / Lincoln NF/LNZ. * WIND...20 to 25 MPH with gusts up to 50 MPH. * HUMIDITY...15 to 20 percent above 7500 feet and 10 to 15 percent below 7500 feet. * HIGHEST THREAT...is for elevations below 7500 feet where min relatively humidity values are expected to be the lowest. * IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings. && $$ BROWN
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
God willing may we all get much needed moisture
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