Road To Nowhere West Of Artesia.
High Winds/Blowing Dust Friday!
Turning Much Colder Friday Night Into Saturday Night!
An approaching upper-level disturbance will sweep across the state on Friday producing strong to damaging winds across parts of the eastern and southeastern plains as well as the Sacramento mountains. Westerly winds will increase to sustained speeds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts in the 60 to 65 mph range in the High Wind Watch and High Wind Warnings areas. West winds are forecast to increase to sustained speeds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts near 55 mph in the Wind Advisory areas.
Across the Guadalupe mountains of Eddy County and Culberson County in West Texas westerly winds are forecast to increase to sustained speeds of 35 to 55 mph with gusts near 85 mph on Friday where a High Wind Warning remains in effect.
Localized wind damage will be possible on Friday in those areas that experience wind gusts of 60 mph or higher.
Areas of blowing dust are also expected on Friday, especially in the warned areas. Sudden drops in the visibility down to near zero with little to no advanced warning will occur during the stronger gusts. Dangerous travel conditions will develop in these areas especially over and near freshly plowed or exposed farmlands, open fields, lots, highway construction sites, and other normally dust-prone locations.
Our first onslaught of very cold arctic air will arrive in northeastern New Mexico late Friday into Saturday. A second colder surge of arctic air will backdoor southward and westward through the state on Monday. Much of the eastern one-half of New Mexico will drop below freezing Saturday night into possibly Wednesday.
Light snow is forecast to accompany the harsh cold fronts as they move southward and westward through the state. Dangerous driving conditions will develop due to the snow, blowing snow, poor visibility, and slick roads in areas that receive the heaviest snowfall including the northeastern and eastern plains Saturday night.
Round two is currently forecast for Sunday into Monday with the heaviest snowfall expected over northeastern New Mexico. Total snowfall forecasts across northeastern and eastern New Mexico is expected to range from a dusting to to 2" with 2" to 5" possible across northeastern New Mexico.
Light snow is possible across the Sacramento, Capitan, and Guadalupe mountains and parts of the southeastern plains Monday night.
What happens from Monday into next week is still debatable. Other than is will be very cold state-wide for sure. The models are still dancing around trying to figure out the upper-level storm pattern and track so nothing is for certain yet in their forecasts.
The Canadian forecast model continues to advertise a brutally cold airmass settling into the state Monday into Wednesday. Whether or not our temps drop down as low as this model's forecast this morning is calling for remains to be seen. The European model is trending colder while the GFS model seems lost in my opinion. So expect forecast changes this weekend into the first of next week.
With a lot of uncertainty still in our forecasts please check my weather web page often and stay up to date on all watches, warnings, advisories, and forecasts that will be issued Friday into next week.
Canadian (GEM 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST, Monday, January 20, 2025.
Canadian (GEM) Snowfall Forecast.
At 5 AM MST Wednesday, January 22, 2025.
Canadian (GEM) Forecast Apparent Temperatures
At 5 AM MST Wednesday, January 22, 2025.
Cannon AFB Near Clovis.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 509 AM MST Thu Jan 16 2025 NMZ201>241-170000- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama- Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley- Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-Estancia Valley- Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley- South Central Mountains- Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County- Southwest Chaves County-San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands- 509 AM MST Thu Jan 16 2025 ...ARCTIC COLD FRONTS BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... Forecaster confidence is growing, and an arctic cold front is set to arrive in eastern New Mexico late Friday into Saturday, followed by a second surge of frigid air arriving on Monday. This will lead to a long-duration of very cold, sub-freezing temperatures with bitter wind chills, especially in eastern and northeastern New Mexico. This will create a high risk of frostbite and hypothermia for anyone outside. In addition, light snow will accompany these harsh cold fronts, creating areas of slick travel and reduced visibility in snow and blowing snow. Snow will initially develop over northeastern New Mexico Friday night into Saturday before spreading to other eastern areas of the state Saturday night. An additional round of light snow could then develop over northern and central New Mexico late Sunday night into Monday with the focus once again being over northeastern areas. Total snowfall accumulations will most likely range from a dusting to 2 inches with higher amounts of 2 to 5 inches possible in northeastern New Mexico. Residents, especially those in eastern New Mexico should begin making preparations for the cold, including precautions for people, plants, pipes, and pets. Forecasts will be changing and updating daily, so be sure to monitor NOAA weather radio, weather.gov/abq or your local media for the latest updates on this situation. For the latest road conditions, dial 511 or 1.800.432.4269, or visit nmroads.com. $$ 52Special Weather Statement National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 658 AM MST Thu Jan 16 2025 NMZ401-403>411-414>417-425>429-TXZ418>424-180100- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Central Grant County/Silver City Area- Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range- West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands- East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Southeast Tularosa Basin- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- Including the cities of Cliff, Buckhorn, Gila Hot Springs, Mule Creek, Hurley, Faywood, Grant County Airport, Lordsburg, Red Rock, Virden, Antelope Wells, Animas, Hachita, Cloverdale, Deming, Columbus, Hillsboro, Winston, Truth Or Consequences, Derry, Spaceport, Garfield, Hatch, Radium Springs, Las Cruces, Vado, Sunland Park, Mescalero, Timberon, Mountain Park, Cloudcroft, Sunspot, Apache Summit, Mayhill, Pinon, Sacramento, Crow Flats, Silver City, Mimbres, Fort Bayard, Lake Roberts, Kingston, White Sands National Park, Chaparral, White Sands Range Headquarters, Alamogordo, Tularosa, Holloman AFB, Orogrande, Downtown El Paso, West El Paso, Upper Valley, East and Northeast El Paso, Socorro, Fort Bliss, Hueco Tanks, Loma Linda, Cornudas, Dell City, Salt Flat, Sierra Blanca, Fabens, Fort Hancock, Tornillo, and Indian Hot Springs 658 AM MST Thu Jan 16 2025 ...BREEZY TO WINDY FOR FRIDAY THEN COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK... Winds increase during the day on Friday as an upper-level system swings through the region from the west. West winds of 25 to 35 mph are forecast during the afternoon with gusts up to 50 mph along the I-10 corridor. The strongest gusts are expected along east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains, Organs, and Franklins. With the combination of gusty winds, warmer temperatures, and recent dry conditions, blowing dust will be a concern along the International border Friday afternoon and evening. Winds decrease Friday evening but remain breezy for Saturday. A strong cold front moves in from the east Saturday night. Morning Wind Chill values will range from 15 to 25 in the lowlands and 0 to 10 in the mountains. Highs will be in the 40s. Even colder air is set to arrive late Monday night into Tuesday. By Tuesday morning, wind chill values will range from 5 to 15 degrees with mountains below zero. Highs on Tuesday will stay in the 30s. We remain cold Wednesday but will begin a slow warm-up afterward. Remember to protect the 4 P`s: People, Pets, Plants, and Pipes. At this time, there is little to no chance for snow except across mountains where some light snow may fall Monday and Tuesday. $$ Aronson
High Wind Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1132 AM MST Thu Jan 16 2025 NMZ028-034-TXZ273-274-278-180500- /O.NEW.KMAF.HW.W.0004.250117T1400Z-250118T0500Z/ Eddy County Plains-Southern Lea-Eastern Culberson-Reeves County Plains-Davis Mountains Foothills- Including the cities of Carlsbad Caverns NP, Jal, Pecos, Alpine, Carlsbad, Artesia, and Eunice 1132 AM MST Thu Jan 16 2025 /1232 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ TO 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. * WHERE...In New Mexico, Eddy County Plains, and Southern Lea County. In Texas, Davis Mountains Foothills and Reeves County Plains, and Eastern Culberson County. * WHEN...From 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ to 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying light aircraft. Aviation interests may experience localized but extreme turbulence, or strong downward airflows if flying in the near the Guadalupe Mountains. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the winds subside. Delay travel through Guadalupe Pass or find another route, if possible. Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is possible. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1132 AM MST Thu Jan 16 2025 NMZ027-TXZ270-271-277-180500- /O.UPG.KMAF.HW.A.0003.250117T1500Z-250118T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMAF.HW.W.0004.250117T1400Z-250118T0500Z/ Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Davis Mountains- Including the cities of Queen, Pine Springs, Guadalupe Mountains National Park, and Fort Davis 1132 AM MST Thu Jan 16 2025 /1232 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ TO 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 35 to 55 mph with gusts up to 85 mph expected. * WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New Mexico, and Davis Mountains. * WHEN...From 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ to 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying light aircraft. Aviation interests may experience localized but extreme turbulence, or strong downward airflows if flying in the near the Guadalupe Mountains. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the winds subside. Delay travel through Guadalupe Pass or find another route, if possible. Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is possible. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$High Wind Watch
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 306 PM MST Thu Jan 16 2025 NMZ223-233-240-171200- /O.NEW.KABQ.HW.A.0001.250117T1700Z-250117T2300Z/ Central Highlands-Guadalupe County-Southwest Chaves County- 306 PM MST Thu Jan 16 2025 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...West to northwest winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible. * WHERE...Central Highlands, Guadalupe County, and Southwest Chaves County. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Power outages are possible. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blowing dust may reduce visibility below one mile at times in dust prone areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates. && $$ GuyerWind Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1132 AM MST Thu Jan 16 2025 NMZ029-033-TXZ045>047-050>053-059>063-067>069-075-272-275-276-280- 281-180500- /O.NEW.KMAF.WI.Y.0001.250117T1400Z-250118T0500Z/ Northern Lea-Central Lea-Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Andrews-Martin- Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane- Upton-Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Chinati Mountains- Marfa Plateau-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley- Including the cities of Gail, Lovington, Stanton, McCamey, Marfa, Tatum, Monahans, Seminole, Odessa, Big Bend National Park, Chisos Basin, Van Horn, Big Spring, Mentone, Presidio, Garden City, Hobbs, Kermit, Lamesa, Rankin, Andrews, Fort Stockton, Colorado City, Midland, and Crane 1132 AM MST Thu Jan 16 2025 /1232 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/ ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ TO 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and western Texas. * WHEN...From 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ to 10 PM MST /11 PM CST/ Friday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds may blow around unsecured objects. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution and keep both hands on the steering wheel. Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the winds subside. Use caution when driving as blowing dust may reduce visibility. && $$ DeBerryURGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Lubbock TX 139 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042-171300- /O.NEW.KLUB.WI.Y.0002.250117T1700Z-250118T0000Z/ Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-Cochran- Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza- Including the cities of Happy, Olton, Plains, Morton, Post, Tulia, Slaton, Amherst, Meadow, Levelland, Dimmitt, Ralls, Farwell, Lubbock, Littlefield, Silverton, Crosbyton, New Home, Floydada, Plainview, Quitaque, Friona, Wolfforth, Bovina, Brownfield, Lake Alan Henry, ODonnell, Whiteface, Muleshoe, Hart, Wellman, Lockney, Tahoka, Denver City, Sundown, and Hale Center 139 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Areas on the Caprock. * WHEN...From 11 AM to 6 PM CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution, particularly on N-S oriented roads. Areas of blowing dust are possible as well, which may lead to periods of reduced visibility at times. && $$ AP
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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