Widespread Cold & Accumulating Snow Possible Next Week - But How Much?

Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA).

(Temperatures & Apparent Temperatures At 8 AM MST).

Surface Map Forecast At 5 AM MST Tuesday.

2024 Recap: Northern & Central New Mexico Weather Imagery.

(Courtesy of The Albuquerque National Weather Service Office.)

Widespread Cold & Accumulating Snow Possible Next Week - But How Much?

Computer Model 500 Millibar (18,000' MSL) Forecasts.

(Valid At 5 PM MST Thursday, January 9, 2025.)

U.S. (GFS.)

European (ECMWF.)

Canadian (GEM).

NWS NDFD High/Low-Temperature Forecasts.

Highs Today.

Lows Monday Morning.

Highs Monday.

Lows Tuesday Morning.

Highs Tuesday.

Lows Wednesday Morning.

Highs Wednesday.

Lows Thursday Morning.

Highs Thursday.

Lows Friday Morning.

Highs Friday.

If heavier more widespread snowfall occurs than currently is being forecast by the models then I would expect some of the above high/low-temperature forecasts to be colder. Especially overnight lows when the storm departs the area and skies clear toward the end of next week. 

Computer Model Storm Total Snowfall Amount Forecasts.

(Tuesday Through Next Friday). 

U.S. (GFS.)

European (ECMWF). 

Canadian (GEM).

National Blend Of Models (NBM).

National Weather Service Albuquerque Forecasts.

National Weather Service El Paso Forecasts.

Models Still Uncertain On Storm Track & Timing.

After taking a look at this morning's computer model forecast runs it is still apparent that that there remains a lot of disagreement among them. 

What they do basically agree on is that a shortwave will dive southward from the Great Basin and into far northwestern Mexico (northern Baja Region) Monday into Tuesday. It is then forecast to form a closed mid-level low at around 18,000' above sea level. Which is forecast to sink southward into the central Baja Penuslia Region by sunset Wednesday. 

How far south this low sinks, and when it begins to be pulled back to the north or northeast is still in question this morning. The Canadian GEM model is the slowest of the three forecast models and stalls it over the central Baja Penuslia through Friday morning. By this time the GFS weakens the closed low, opens it up into a short wave trough of low pressure, and begins to stretch it off to the northeast. The Euro model is similar in opening up and lifting the low to the northeast but is the middle ground between the GFS and the GEM. 

One odd factor to consider is this. Should the closed low over northwestern Mexico (Baja Region) become cutt-off, off and retrogrades (backs up) either further to the south or west than currently forecast, then this will cause significant changes in our forecasts. If the low sinks too far to the south or west then less snow would fall initially. At least until it begins its northeastward trek toward the state. 

If this closed low becomes cut off from the jet stream to the north of it (cutt-off low) then the forecasts will really become challenging next week. Cuff-off lows are notorious for causing forecasting headaches since they tend to stall and move little. 

Sounds complicated right. Well, that's because it is. All of this will have a huge impact on New Mexico and nearby areas as far as snowfall goes next week. If the low stalls to our southwest as the Canadian model thinks then snowfall totals will go up and could be more widespread across the area. If the low opens up, weakens, and pulls away from the state then snowfall totals may be less.

A cold front moved through the state yesterday and last night. A re-enforcing shot of arctic air will backdoor into the region Tuesday bringing an even colder airmass into the area. 

One thing is certain and that is all of next week will be cold. Not record-breaking cold but seasonably cold. Much of the state will remain below normal as far as high temps are concerned Tuesday into next Friday. 

Snow is currently forecast to break out across northern New Mexico on Tuesday and then spread southward with time. Current model forecasts call for the worst of the incoming winter storm to occur in the Tuesday night-Friday time frame. 

There will likely be travel issues across parts of the state and nearby areas next week due to the snow, slick highways, and roadways. Blowing and drifting snow may cause additional problems in some areas like the mountains if heavier snow falls. Some road closures may occur in those locations where the snowfall is the heaviest. Snow is forecast across most of the state and even down to the valley floors. But how much and where is still uncertain. 

Expect additional changes to local New Mexico forecasts over the next several days. Now is the time to prepare for winter weather conditions that will impact the area all next week. Take steps to protect livestock, pets, and other animals outside, especially in open or exposed areas. Be sure and bundle up the children next week and check on the elderly often. 

A lot of uncertainty still remains so please check your local forecasts, watches, warnings, and updates often for the very latest on this winter storm. 

Important Winter Weather Links To Follow:

1. NM Roads  - (800-432-4269)
2. Drive Texas  -  (800-452-9292)
3. Texas Roads  - (800-452-9292)
4. Arizona Roads  - (888-411-7623)
5. Nationwide Roads  - (511)
6. NM Rds Mobile App

Special Weather Statements.

Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
636 AM MST Sun Jan 5 2025

NMZ201>241-061200-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-
Southwest Chaves County-San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
636 AM MST Sun Jan 5 2025

...WINTER RETURNS MID WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...

After record breaking warmth over the last three days, winter will
return during the week ahead with light snow across northern and
central New Mexico and much colder temperatures.  Total snow
accumulation of a few inches will be possible Tuesday through
Wednesday morning along the east slopes of mountain ranges and
eastward onto western parts of the eastern plains. Locally heavier
amounts around a half foot will be possible on mountains peaks
and east-facing slopes. At this time the coldest lower elevation
temperatures look to impact the area from Raton to Las Vegas and
Clines Corners, where subfreezing temperatures are forecast from
Monday night until Thursday or Friday afternoons.

A storm system will drop southward over southern California and
western Arizona Tuesday, stall for a day, then weaken as it
tracks slowly eastward across northern Mexico and/or southern New
Mexico during the latter half of the work week. The storm will
draw a strong and moist backdoor cold front through northern and
central New Mexico Tuesday with light to moderate snowfall
developing over northern areas Tuesday morning, then expanding
southward to include central and southern areas Tuesday afternoon
and night as easterly upslope flow persists and some potentially
dense freezing fog develops. Snow and freezing fog should
gradually come to an end in many locations Wednesday; however,
periods of light snow may return to southern areas Wednesday night
through Friday, and possibly farther north depending on the track
of the system. High temperatures are forecast to drop into the
20s and 30s across eastern areas starting Tuesday, then over
central and western areas as well on Wednesday, except for teens
in many mountain locations. Low temperatures look to bottom out
Wednesday night mostly in the single digits and teens. In
addition, east wind gusts from 35 to 45 mph are forecast below
canyons opening into the central valley Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday morning.

Temperatures this cold will cause the snow to stick to road
surfaces making travel hazardous in many locations Tuesday through
Wednesday, including much of I-25 and I-40 across central and
eastern New Mexico. Additionally, very cold nighttime low
temperatures areawide, and the extended period of subfreezing
temperatures along the east slopes of the central mountain chain,
will necessitate precautions for people, plants, pipes, and pets.
Temperatures are forecast to trend gradually warmer Thursday and
Friday, but nighttime lows will remain very cold. Please monitor
your favorite source of weather information for updates on this
evolving storm system, and keep an eye out for potential Winter
Weather Advisories from the National Weather Service.

$$ 44
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
135 AM MST Sun Jan 5 2025

NMZ401-403>411-414>417-425>429-TXZ418>424-052200-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Central Grant County/Silver City Area-
Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-
West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-
East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Southeast Tularosa Basin-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
Including the cities of Cliff, Buckhorn, Gila Hot Springs,
Mule Creek, Hurley, Faywood, Grant County Airport, Lordsburg,
Red Rock, Virden, Antelope Wells, Animas, Hachita, Cloverdale,
Deming, Columbus, Hillsboro, Winston, Truth Or Consequences,
Derry, Spaceport, Garfield, Hatch, Radium Springs, Las Cruces,
Vado, Sunland Park, Mescalero, Timberon, Mountain Park,
Cloudcroft, Sunspot, Apache Summit, Mayhill, Pinon, Sacramento,
Crow Flats, Silver City, Mimbres, Fort Bayard, Lake Roberts,
Kingston, White Sands National Park, Chaparral,
White Sands Range Headquarters, Alamogordo, Tularosa,
Holloman AFB, Orogrande, Downtown El Paso, West El Paso,
Upper Valley, East and Northeast El Paso, Socorro, Fort Bliss,
Hueco Tanks, Loma Linda, Cornudas, Dell City, Salt Flat,
Sierra Blanca, Fabens, Fort Hancock, Tornillo,
and Indian Hot Springs
135 AM MST Sun Jan 5 2025

...SIGNIFICANT COLD AND SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Today marks the beginning of a cooling trend as a series of cold
fronts arrive to southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. The most
significant of these cold fronts is set to arrive early Wednesday
morning. Temperatures will be well into the 20s by Wednesday
morning, which will combine with breezy easterly winds to create
wind chill values in the single digits and teens with below zero
values in the mountains. Highs will struggle to get above freezing
Wednesday afternoon, especially east of the Rio Grande. The cold
will be slow to leave with lows well into the teens continuing
each morning through Saturday although winds will not be as
strong. Remember to protect the four P`s: people, pets, plants,
and pipes.

In addition to the significant cold, an upper-level storm system
will slowly swing through the region, bringing with it a low to
moderate chance for snow beginning Wednesday, lasting into Friday
morning. Early indications are snow totals will generally be light
with lowlands expecting 1-2" and mountains receiving 2-4".
However, the exact track of this storm is still uncertain and
there is a good chance these totals will change.

It is important to monitor the forecast over the next few days
while making preparations for the cold and snow.

$$ BROWN/BRICE
Cold Weather Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1140 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-061200-
/O.NEW.KSJT.CW.Y.0001.250106T0600Z-250106T1600Z/
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
Including the cities of Abilene, Echo, Rotan, Cherokee, Cleo,
Anson, Mertzon, Broome, Irby, Trickham, Barnhart, Sanco,
Koockville, Rochelle, Stamford, Voca, Rowena, Pumphrey, Hamlin,
Roosevelt, Arden, Brady, Throckmorton, Paint Rock, Telegraph,
Lohn, Eula, San Angelo, Mason, Loyal Valley, Haskell, Stith,
Woodson, Eldorado, Segovia, Hext, Sweetwater, Funston, Winters,
Tennyson, Indian Creek, Hatchel, San Saba, Eden, Robert Lee,
Dudley, Coleman, Valera, Cross Plains, Fort Mckavett, Fife, Roby,
Clyde, Harkeyville, Streeter, Sterling City, Albany, Live Oak,
Katemcy, Menard, Fisk, Baird, London, Tuxedo, Junction, Silver,
Ballinger, Pontotoc, Erna, Bronte, Sherwood, Truby, Lowake, Voss,
Chappel, Sonora, Wall, Brownwood, Carlsbad, Fredonia, Ozona,
Benoit, and Crews
1140 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM
CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills between 5 and 15 expected.

* WHERE...All of west central Texas.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin
  is exposed to these temperatures. Very cold temperatures can lead
  to hypothermia with prolonged exposure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

Keep pets indoors as much as possible. $$ Daniels

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.