Widespread Heavy/Torrential Rains & Flash Flooding From Hurricane Polo's Remnant Tropical Moisture!
Normally Dry Rio Felix Arroyo.
Taken From The Bridge On US Hwy 285.
Southern Chaves County - West Of Hagerman.
Another Dangerous Excessive Rainfall & Flash Flood Event Starting Today!
Today's quiet weather before round two of heavy to excessive rains and flash flooding will come to a fast end first across northwest New Mexico this morning, then spreading across the rest of the state this afternoon into tonight.
Hurricane Polo is still a Major Hurricane this Monday morning with sustained winds of 155 mph with gusts to 195 mph!. Polo is approaching the southern Baja California Peninsula this morning and is expected to turn more to the northeast today. By Tuesday around noontime MDT he will be a Tropical Storm located roughly 100 miles or so southwest of the bootheel of southwestern New Mexico. Polo's remnants (record levels of tropical moisture) are forecast to track over the southern half of New Mexico and will produce strong wind gusts. Polo will not be a tropical storm or depression when this happens.
I've had several people ask me if Polo will be a hurricane or tropical storm when he enters the state. No, he will not, but his remnant energy combined with a stout upper-level low approaching from the west will produce strong southwesterly winds sustained at around 25-35 mph with gusts near 45 mph in many areas of the state. This, combined with the heavy rains, will make for a blustery fall storm tonight through Wednesday.
A strong early fall season closed upper-level low will continue diving southeast through today and into southern Arizona Tuesday. The GFS swings the upper-level low across southwestern and southern New Mexico and into eastern New Mexico by sunset Wednesday. The Euro model tracks it further north across central and northeastern New Mexico by Thursday morning. Which track the upper-level storm takes will have a large bearing on where the heaviest rains fall and for how long. This will also determine who gets the worst flash flooding from this storm.
Current (as of Monday morning) model forecasts call for storm-total rainfall amounts from today through Wednesday generally in the 1" to 3" range across much of the state. Local totals of 4" to over 5" are possible. If the storm takes a more southern track and is slower, then more rain could fall than is forecast. If it takes a more northern track and is faster, then rainfall would be less.
As we saw with last week's heavy rains and flooding event, there were some surprises with storm total rainfall amounts and locations. I highly suspect that we will see a repeat of this again with this incoming storm. Some locations may get far more rain than forecast and others less. So it will be very important to stay weather-aware with a high situational awareness mindset and be ready to take quick actions to protect your life. Any preparations to protect livestock, animals, and property should be completed by the end of today.
Closed upper-level lows are tough to forecast sometimes, and so are the tropical remnants from former hurricanes that move over the area. Combine the two together, and you have a very dynamic and complicated setup...which is exactly what we are facing today through at least Wednesday.
It should be noted that runoff and flash flooding in arroyos, small streams, and rivers from the heavy to excessive rainfall will continue beyond Wednesday in some areas. This will be a rare high-end event for many areas of the state. The last time southeastern New Mexico faced a similar situation was in September 2013, and again in September 2014. A farmer in Malaga reported a storm total of 25" of rainfall during the September event, with many areas of southeastern New Mexico measuring 5" to 20" of rainfall. I'm not saying this will happen again, but whatever rain that does fall will cause us problems.
Dangerous, life-threatening flash flooding and flooding are going to be a problem for many areas of the state and nearby locations today into at least Wednesday. Of particular concern are those areas of the state that have already experienced flash flooding and flooding over the past couple of weeks, and especially last week. Of great concern will be the burn scar areas of the state and the mountains and foothills.
Do not treat this as just another heavy rain event. Pockets of heavy/torrential to excessive rain combined with scattered thunderstorms, especially training thunderstorms (one right after another over the same location), will produce very rapid flash flooding and flooding!
New Mexico can best be described as waterlogged right now, and it simply will not take much more rainfall to cause our arroyos, streams, rivers, urban areas, and other flood-prone locations to quickly flood. I often say that our arroyos are normally dry, but this isn't the case now...many of them have flooded over the past couple of days and weeks, and they still have standing water in them in some areas.
Do not attempt to walk across, swim, or drive through flooded arroyos. These floodwaters are often raging torrents filled with all kinds of debris, snakes, and who knows what. Yes, there have been cases of people doing this in the past. Southeastern New Mexico and the state itself have a long history of people attempting to do this and end up having to be rescued. Not only does this put your life in danger, but it also endangers those who have to come to your rescue. If flash flooding or flooding occurs in your location, then immediately seek higher ground.
It's simple - TURN AROUND - DON'T DROWN!
By the end of this week, a cooler and drier airmass will overspread the state behind the departing storm. Friday night, the higher elevations and mountain valleys in the Sacramento Mountains will likely drop down into the 30s for lows.
Interestingly enough, Tropical Storm Rachel has already formed close to where Polo was born off of the southwestern Mexican coast. She is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday and by Saturday be located south of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. It is too early to tell if Rachel will have any impacts on New Mexico's weather in about a week or so.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 640 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 629 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 - Very warm (90s F lowlands, 80s F higher elevations) highs today with isolated storms (30% chance) from 12 pm through sunset. - Heavy rain in scattered showers/storms begins Monday night lasting through Wednesday morning. A Flood Watch is in effect for the period. - Strong southwest winds of at least 35 mph develop over the Guadalupes by Tuesday, with strong winds likely each day through the end of the week. &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 521 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 513 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026 - Flash flooding at a heightened risk statewide this afternoon through Wednesday. A surge of monsoonal moisture brings widespread and long duration showers and thunderstorms. - River flooding favored Tuesday through Friday. Low-lying farmland, fields, low water crossings, and property near rivers may experience minor flooding. - Gusty winds upwards of 25 to 45 mph through Tuesday will threaten downed trees in saturated soils and hazardous crosswinds for high-profile vehicles. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 101 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026 The potentially dangerous and life threatening flash flood risk still has multiple factors aligning to impact much of New Mexico beginning Monday afternoon, peaking Tuesday, and lasting into Wednesday. A Flash Flood Watch for the western half of the state remains in effect beginning 12pm MDT Monday, with another for the eastern half of the state beginning 6pm MDT Monday. Both currently last to 6am MDT Wednesday morning with possible longer extensions as needed. Many areas will see 48-hour rainfall totals of 1-3 inches by Wednesday afternoon, with locally high-end amounts upwards of 4 to 5+ inches. Low-lying and poorly drained areas, urban areas and arroyo systems, near river banks, recent burn scars will the most susceptible to flash flooding. Now is the time to make sure you have multiple ways of receiving any warnings issued, and be weather aware. GOES satellite imagery is resolving the first wave of moisture from the ghostly remnants of TS Odalys being squeezed northeastward over AZ with some light showers over eastern AZ evident on radar. SW-NE oriented lines of showers with a few embedded fast moving thunderstorms will continue to spread over the Four Corners region late tonight into Monday morning. Increasing shear and divergent flow aloft east of the approaching 565dm H5 low over SoCAL will increase will increase the coverage of embedded thunderstorms over the northwestern third of the state. These areas mainly along and west of the Continental Divide, including places from Grants to Gallup to Farmington and Navajo Nation will see a peak in flash flood risk Monday afternoon before the line of more intense precipitation shifts eastward to the Rio Grande Valley Monday evening. The latest 00Z suite of HiRes CAMs are in fair agreement for the Rio Grande Valley from Socorro to ABQ to Santa Fe and potentially northward to Taos will see their first wave of peak precipitation intensities and flash flood risk Monday evening. Afternoon driven convection favoring development over southwestern NM looks to push northward into Socorro County with northward driven outflow boundaries favorably invigorating convection along the aforementioned SW-NE oriented line of showers pushing to the Rio Grande Valley and central mountain chain during this time. Precipitation intensity looks to lessen near or just past midnight for this area while this wave of showers continues across eastern NM through Tuesday morning. Thereafter, Tuesday sees the remnant but still intact moisture core of Polo move ashore northwestern Mexico while the H5 low spins to its north over central AZ. How Polo`s remnants merge with this H5 low is still subtly uncertain over NM. Current numerical model guidance ranges in the core of Polo`s moisture plume tracking either over south-central and central NM from El Paso to T or C up to ABQ and Santa Fe -OR- moving more toward south-central and southeastern NM impacting El Paso to Roswell to Clovis. Either track favors a timing of Tuesday afternoon and evening for the most intense precipitation. Neither track bodes well for the Ruidoso burn scars unfortunately. The combination of record level moisture (highlighted by PWAT climbing to 1.20" to 1.40", favorable atmospheric dynamics highlighted by strong shear and divergent flow aloft continues the high confidence for a period of high rainfall rates where this plume of moisture goes. The current timing of Tuesday evening and night into Wednesday morning also does not bode well given the threat of night time flash flooding. One perhaps favorable factor is the speed at which Polo`s moisture plume will be moving, keeping the period of heavier precipitation to within a ~3hr window for most locations it tracks over. A secondary hazard Tuesday afternoon and evening will be stronger winds near the surface circulation center. While not notably strong by New Mexico standards, the combination of already saturated soils being pounded on by more rain will make it easier for these gusty winds to knock down trees and create hazardous crosswinds for some high profile vehicles alongside lower visibility. While precipitation looks to continue over northwestern NM, due to the forecast track of Polo`s remnants favoring the southeastern half of the state, flash flooding risk looks to lower a bit for the Four Corners region by Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday morning through Sunday) Issued at 101 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026 Wednesday morning begins the final phase of this torrential downpour event as numerical model solutions look to bring a dry slot punching in behind the remnants of Polo, favoring the southern half of the state. Notable uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics around how Polo is absorbed into the H5 low over NM, either fully merging with the low over northern NM or being ejected out over the High Plains. How exactly this melding of systems plays will determine when precipitation comes to an end for any one location. However it plays out, it can be said that wrap-around moisture will favor ongoing lower intensity showers over at least the northern half of NM Wednesday, potentially lasting over western NM as long as Thursday morning. Conditions looks to steadily clear west to east over the state Thursday, with precipitation lasting over eastern NM as late as Friday morning. The weekend finally arrives with clearer conditions and remnant high level moisture remaining in the form of higher humidity. River flooding and morning areas of fog are likely to linger over the state during this time however. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 544 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 530 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026 - Moisture from tropical remnants of Polo will bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms to the Borderland through Tuesday night. Storms will be capable of heavy rain, gusty winds, and flash flooding, especially over locations that have already received heavy rain in recent weeks. - New rain amounts around 2 inches across much of southern New Mexico, with localized areas receiving 3 to 4 inches. A Flood Watch is in effect into Wednesday morning. - Drier weather expected Thursday through the weekend as the moisture is pushed eastward. Temperatures remaining cool into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... Two weather features to focus on in the short term are the upper low currently centered over northern California and Hurricane Polo spinning off the Baja California coast. Tropical steering pattern is favorable for Polo to drift north on Monday, making likely landfall over Baja California Sur during the evening hours. At the same time, the mid-latitude Pacific low aloft will make a southeast dive down to the Colorado River Valley, forced by a strengthening 75-knot jet streak on its backside. A weakening Polo will latch onto this stronger mid-latitude flow, shifting it northeast into Sonora/Chihuahua and straight toward El Paso on Tuesday. Monday will feature a rapid moisture increase locally, thanks to the approaching tropical remnants. Veering of mid-level winds to the south ahead of the Pacific low will pull in deep, tropically- sourced moisture into southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Precipitable water values, measured at just 1.1" this evening (00Z KEPZ RAOB), will spike to 1.5-1.6" Monday evening. This may break seasonal moisture records for El Paso, and is easily 3 to 4 standard deviations higher than usual for the end of the monsoon season. This moisture-rich atmosphere, combined with PVA and increasing diffluent flow aloft, will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms area wide starting as early as Monday afternoon. Good confidence in rain for all local zones Monday night through Wednesday morning as the upper low pulls up tropical moisture like a fire hose into New Mexico and West Texas. 48-hour rainfall forecasts suggest widespread totals ranging from 1.00-2.00". NBM guidance backs this up. Stronger storms and training (or multiple rounds) of rain showers over the same areas will lead to localized 3-4". Soil saturation is very high right now, so rain will lead to rapid runoff and flash flooding quickly. A Moderate (Level 3 of 4) Risk of flash flooding is in place almost area-wide for Tuesday. Of particular concern for me will be the Sacramento Mountains, which have already had an above-normal precipitation season and significant flooding over the past two weeks. A Flood Watch is in effect area-wide from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. WFO El Paso will be proactive with flood warnings in areas with recent heavy rains if needed Tuesday- Wednesday. On top of the heavy rain risk, the passing tropical depression may still have some stronger winds associated with it. 00Z HRRR run tonight was of particular concern, and recent NAM runs have also picked up on the potential for gusty conditions Tuesday evening as Polo moves through. Increased forecasted winds for Tuesday afternoon/evening, especially for El Paso, Hudspeth, Otero counties where strong winds out of the south just ahead of the anticipated storm track could lead to gusts in the 30-40 mph range. Both GFS and ECMWF global models show a track of the upper low progressing across central NM on Wednesday. Rain showers will slowly decrease in coverage Wednesday morning, with the remnants of Polo quickly dissipating. Subsident "dry-slotting" at the base of the low will lead to drier weather for our area by Wednesday afternoon. Once all this action passes, it looks like a fairly "boring" weather pattern for the start of October. Strengthening upper high over the U.S. Southwest will usher in a much-needed break from rainfall. Continued east surface flow could keep temperatures below normal through the rest of the week. Lowland highs lingering in the upper 70s into next weekend seems like the best bet right now. &&
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