Finally, The Much-Anticipated Pattern Change With Rain & Cooler Temps Arrives Next Week.

- September 12, 2026

September 4, 2026.

Artesia, New Mexico

Jaycee Park Dust Devil.

Record High Temps Broken Friday, Sept 11, 2026.

Eight Mile Draw Raws 105 - No Previous record available.

Carlsbad Cavern City Municipal Airport ASOS 104 - Previous 100 in 2000.

Roswell Industrial Air Center Airport ASOS 102 - Previous 101 in 2000.

Artesia AG SEBS NMCC 103 - Previous Artesia SEBS 102 in 1915.

Seven Rivers/Lakewood NMCC 103 - No Previous record available.

Padacu Raws 103 - WIPP NWS Climate COOP Station 100 in 2023.

Malaga NMCC 103 - No Previous record available.

Loving NMCC 102 - No Previous record available.

Artesia Municipal Airport AWOS 102 - Previous 95 in 2021.

Dexter NMCC 101 - No Previous record available.

Lovington Golf Course NMCC 101 - No Previous record available.

Holloman AFB ASOS 100 - No Previous record available.

Bat Draw Raws 100 - Previous Carlsbad Caverns NWS COOP Station 96 in 2000.

Hobbs Regional Airport AWOS 100 - Previous 103 in 2000.

Jal NMCC 100 - Previous Jal NWS Climate COOP Station 101 in 2000.

Burnt Well NMCC 20 miles WSW of Dexter 99 - No Previous record available.

Runyan Ranches NMCC 96 - No Previous record available.

Hope NMCC 96 - No Previous record available.

Hondo NMCC 95 - No Previous record available.

Dunken Raws 95 - No Previous record available.

Elk NWS Climate COOP Station 93 - Previous 89 in 1974.

Queen Raws 93 - No Previous record available.

Pinery Raws 92 - Previous Guadalupe Pass ASOS 91 in 2000.

Mayhill Raws 90 - No Previous record available.

Ruidoso NWS Climate COOP Station Missing - Previous 84 in 1974.

Smokey Bear Raws 89 - No Previous record available.

Mescal Raws 88 - No Previous record available.

Sierra Blanca Regional AWOS 87 - Previous 82 in 2021.

Nichols Ranch W of La Luz 87 - No Previous record available.

Weed PWS 86 - No Previous record available.

Timberon PWS 84 - No Previous record available.

Cloudcroft NWS Climate COOP Station 76 - Ties Previous 76 in 2004. Older Station Data - Previous 80 in 1918.

Today's forecast highs across New Mexico are once again expected to be above normal, with daily records challenged across some locations, including the southeastern plains. As of 3 PM, the Carlsbad Airport and the Carlsbad NMCC have already reached 106º. Seven Rivers/Lakewood are at 105, Loving and Malaga 105, Roswell and Artesia 104, and Dexter and the Eight Mile Draw Raws 104.

All-time Record Highs For September:

Roswell 106 on Sept 7, 2023

Artesia 106 on Sept 14, 1918 and Sept 5, 1948

Carlsbad 106 on Sept 7, 1948

Carlsbad Airport 105 on Sept 1st and 2nd 2014, and Sept 5, 1948

Hobbs 109 on Sept 3, 1939

Tatum 105 on Sept 5, 1948

Jal 108 on Sept 1, 1951

Alamogordo 102 on Sept 4, 1948, and Sept 16, 1956

Mountain Park 95 on Sept 3, 1992

Elk 94 on Sept 8, 2023, and multiple other times

Ruidoso 91 on Sept 5, 1948

Cloudcroft 85 on Sept 24, 1911

Normal High/Low Temps For September 16th:

Roswell 88/61

Artesia 87/57

Carlsbad 87/61

Alamogordo 86/63

Hobbs 84/61

Tatum 84/55

Elk 80/47

Ruidoso 76/44

Mountain Park 74/51

Cloudcroft 67/42

A much-talked-about, and much-anticipated change is in the cards next week. A Pacific upper-level trough of low pressure is forecast to swing inland across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies starting tomorrow, with a second trough swinging across the same areas by the middle to end of next week.

This will help shove the stubborn and persistent upper-level summer monsoon high east of New Mexico next week. A stream of rich subtropical monsoonal moisture is forecast by the models to work its way northeastward and northward into the state starting Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to overspread most of the state from Tuesday into the end of next week. The threat for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be on the increase as well.

With the increased cloud cover and rainfall, our daily temperatures are forecast to "cool" down to near seasonal daily averages by the middle to end of next week. This means highs in the upper 80's to near 90º for the southeastern plains by late next week. For the Ruidoso area, highs will be in the mid to upper 70's, and the Cloudcroft area the low to mid 60's by the end of next week. See our local National Weather Service Forecast Discussions (AFD's) below for more details.

Some of the higher elevations of the northern mountains may drop down into the 30's for lows next Saturday morning. Angel Fire has already had its first freeze of the season Friday morning.

September is a transitional month, and typically the forecast models struggle with their forecasts as we go from summer into early fall. This will be the case with the finer details centered around our upcoming change next week as we go from the torrid heat and drought into more of a fall-like pattern. So nothing in our forecasts is concrete yet; expect changes.

September 4, 2026.

Artesia, New Mexico

Jaycee Park Dust Devil.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
233 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Hot temperatures persist through at least early next week, with
  this weekend seeing the peak of the heat. Be sure to stay
  hydrated and take frequent breaks if outdoors!

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over
  the higher terrain each day through the period. Storm chances
  increase over portions of southeast New Mexico next week

- A cooling trend begins as we head into a new work week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

As of 230PM today, we have broken the daily record high of 101F
at MAF (set in 1930)! The thermometer at KMAF currently sits at
102F! This heat comes as the result of an upper level ridge
spanning overhead and across the southwestern CONUS. The center of
the ridge lies just west of our region this afternoon. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect for the northeastern Permian Basin
through early this evening, where highs are forecast to reach up
to 107F. Areas near and along the river valleys are forecast to
reach between 105-110F this afternoon. However, some relief from
the heat may be offered in the form of isolated showers/storms. A
surface trough near the TX/NM border extends southward, and will
serve as a focus for storm development through early this evening.
Rain chances are low (10-20%) over Lea County and the
northwestern/central Permian Basin. A few showers and storms have
also already developed in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains and
the Marfa Plateau, driven by upslope flow and daytime heating.
Should any storms become strong, the primary threats would be
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall looks to come to
an end later this evening, then overnight lows cool to the 60s in
the higher terrain, and 70s everywhere else. A low-level jet will
keep southeasterly winds breezy tonight.

Sunday, the center of the ridge begins to shift east/northeast,
developing near north Texas and Oklahoma by the afternoon. Given the
shift of the ridge core, highs will be a few degrees cooler Sunday
compared to today. Triple digit heat is again expected over the
northeastern Permian Basin, and near/along the river valleys.
Although, Heat Advisory criteria looks to be avoided. Highs in the
90s are forecast for the rest of the region. Isolated showers/storms
are again forecast over the higher terrain and portions of SE NM
Sunday afternoon and early evening. Lows Sunday night will be
similar to Saturday night.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Upper level ridging continues to shift eastward through early next
week, engulfing much of the eastern CONUS by Tuesday. Although our
region will lie below the western edge of the ridge, decreasing
heights coupled with southeasterly flow promotes a cooling trend.
Highs in the 90s shall be prevalent Monday and Tuesday, though areas
near/along the river valleys and portions of the northeastern
Permian Basin are progged to reach the low the low 100s. Wednesday
onward, triple digit heat becomes restricted to areas along the Rio
Grande valley. By late week, afternoon temperatures look to mainly
range in the low-to-mid 90s, with 80s in the higher terrain and much
of southeast New Mexico. Along with the cooling trend, rain chances
also see an uptick as disturbances ride along the edge of the ridge.
Rain chances will tend to favor the western portions of our region
most afternoons, especially in the vicinity of the higher terrain. A
few long-range models show a cold front pushing in next weekend,
bringing cooler temperatures and better rain chances. We will see
how this evolves as we head through the next several days.


&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
115 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Heat continues across eastern and central New Mexico through
  the weekend where there is an increased risk of heat related
  illnesses. Temperatures could tie or exceed record highs.

- Isolated to scattered storms may produce strong downburst wind
  gusts, brief rain, and blowing dust this afternoon and evening.

- A surge of rich monsoon moisture starting Sunday and increasing
  into next week will elevated the risk of heavy rainfall and
  flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The Monsoon high is currently centered over southern NM and
forecast to move east through Sunday to over the Ark-La-Tex, which
will open the southern door for moisture advection into our area.
This trend has already begun and PWATs are climbing, with the 18Z
KABQ upper air sounding showing 0.76" which is almost 0.30" higher
than 24hrs ago. This trend will continue Sunday, with PWATs
forecast to reach up to near 1.0" at KABQ. Today`s crop of
convection will be limited in coverage and be of lower
precipitation efficiency due to the lower PWAT atmosphere.
Strong/erratic wind gusts will be the primary threat with storms
today, although slow storm motion and a slightly higher PWAT
environment across the Southwest Mountains may allow for a few
spots of locally heavy rainfall. A more standard Monsoon
atmosphere will be in place by Sunday and an uptick in convective
coverage with greater rainfall efficiency are expected. There is a
moderate risk for burn scar flash flooding in Ruidoso Sunday
afternoon, but storms will be moving north and cross-basin, which
may limit the threat to training storms. A moderate heat risk will
persist across the eastern plains Sunday and Roswell is forecast
to reach 102 degrees, which would be the 3rd day in a row of 100+
and the 4th of the last 5 days. Several locales across eastern NM
will challenge daily record highs Sunday, including Roswell.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

PWATs will continue to climb from Monday through Thursday,
challenging daily record values as the upper high sets up over
TN/AL/MS and troughing along the west coast allows for a Monsoon
moisture plume to stand up over the region. This will be an
increasingly wet period, with daytime temps trending down, PoPs
trending up and an increasing threat for locally heavy rainfall
and localized flash flooding. The threat for burn scar flash
flooding will increase as well and be elevated all week. An upper
low/trough will move east toward the central Rockies Thursday and
bring added forcing to the region, potentially enhancing
convection and the flash flood threat. The 12Z medium range model
solutions show a drop-off in PWATs beginning Friday and continuing
through the weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the
Desert SW and southern Great Basin, bringing a downtrend in PoPs.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1130 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1130 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

 - Temperatures will remain about 5 to 10 degrees above normal
   through the weekend, with El Paso near the 100 degree mark.
   Temperatures will get closer to average by the end of next
   week.

 - Thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase next week with
   the main focus out west early on and shifting areawide by
   midweek.

 - Deep moisture will move in next week and with daily slow moving
   thunderstorm chances, some areas could see some flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Looks like a gradual ramp up to an active upcoming week with the
best monsoonal pattern we have seen this summer. For this weekend,
we will start out with a weak upper high near the International
Border with some better moisture over the far western areas where
we will have afternoon and early evening storms, focused on the NM
Bootheel and the Gila region moving east through Sierra County.
Very localized heavy rain is the main threat. As the upper high
shifts into the OK/AR area tomorrow and into the Lower Mississippi
River Valley area by Mon, we start setting up a better moisture
push with southeast winds bringing low level moisture from the
gulf and more southerly mid/upper level winds. There is also an
approaching upper trough moving into the west coast. Western zones
will have the best chances for storms, but both GFS and EC showing
outflows pushing east and will likely trigger activity further
east into the evening each day. Temperatures will remain about
5-10 degrees above normal, but the far western zones could be
closer to normal depending on residual cloud cover.

As we go into Tue-Fri, things get more interesting. The
aforementioned upper trough meanders east and lingers around the
area through this timeframe. A good moisture influx continues and
PW`s start to get into the 1.1-1.5" range by the later half of the
week. Storm motions will mainly be under 10kts with a deep more
southerly flow supporting training storms. With all of this in
place some locations will see several days of heavy rain which
could lead to some flash flooding. Things could change if this
trough pushes east quicker, but the upper high to the east will
likely not allow for that. Temperatures will also be dropping and
being closer to normal or even below normal.

&&