Today Is The First Day Of The Meteorological Fall - What's Ahead?
August 27, 2026.
Partial Lunar Eclipse.
Carlsbad, New Mexico.
Hello Fall - We Are So Glad To See You!
Welcome to the first day of the meteorological fall (Sept 1st - Nov 30th). The first calendar day of fall occurs on Tuesday, Sept 22nd this year. Goodbye summer and good riddance. Too bad summer can't read the calendar because it's going to continue running the fall stop signs for another week or so.
In time, we will gradually, very slowly cool down, but it is going to take awhile. This morning's forecast model runs continue to keep southeastern New Mexico in the upper 90's to the low 100s today through the upcoming weekend. Next week they are hinting at dropping our highs a few degrees but still running above normal. Our daytime highs over the next week will run some 5º to 12º above normal. In about a week to ten days, we may finally get a break and see more seasonal temps with better chances of rain in southeastern New Mexico.
To date, the Tucumcari NWS Climate COOP Station has recorded 57 days with daytime high temps of 100º or higher. The Carlsbad Cavern City Air Terminal Airport ASOS has recorded 56 days. The Roswell Industrial Air Center Airport ASOS has recorded 49 days. The Artesia NWS Climate COOP Station has recorded 42 days so far.
This summer has been a hot one but still falls short of the brutal summer of 2011 when the Carlsbad NWS Climate COOP Station recorded 61 days with highs of 100º or above, the Carlsbad Cavern City Air Terminal Airport ASOS 76, the Artesia NWS Climate COOP Station 66, the Roswell Industrial Air Center Airport ASOS 59, and the Hobbs NWS Climate COOP Station 65.
High Temps Recorded So Far This Year:
The Socorro NWS Climate COOP Station 112.
The Tucumcari NWS Climate COOP Station 110.
The Caballo Dam NWS Climate COOP Station 110.
The White Sands Natl Monument NWS Climate COOP Station 109.
The Las Cruces NMSU NWS Climate COOP Station 109.
The Roswell Industrial Air Center Airport ASOS 109.
The Caprock NWS Climate COOP Station 109.
The Bosque Del Apache NWS Climate COOP Station 108.
The Deming Municipal Airport ASOS 108.
The Rio Rancho NWS Climate COOP Station #2 108.
The Carlsbad Cavern City Air Terminal Airport ASOS 108.
The Artesia Municipal Airport AWOS 108.
The Artesia NWS Climate COOP Station 107.
The Holloman AFB ASOS 107.
The Portales NWS Climate COOP Station 106.
The Hobbs Regional Airport AWOS 106.
The Brantley Dam NWS Climate COOP Station 106.
The Alamogordo White Sands Regional Airport AWOS 106.
The Aztec Ruins Natl Monument NWS Climate COOP Station 105.
The T or C Municipal Airport AWOS 105.
The Cannon AFB ASOS 104.
The Hope NWS Climate COOP Station 103.
The Silver City Municipal Airport AWOS 102.
The Raton Municipal Crews Field Airport ASOS 102.
The Raton Municipal Crews Field Airport ASOS 102.
The Farmington Four Corners Regional Airport ASOS 102.
The Albuquerque Intl Natl Airport ASOS 101.
The Elk NWS Climate COOP Station 100.
The Santa Fe Municipal Airport ASOS 98.
The Sierra Blanca Regional Airport AWOS NE of Ruidoso 94.
The Ruidoso NWS Climate COOP Station 93.
The Mountain Park NWS Climate COOP Station 91.
The Eagle Nest NWS Climate COOP Station 90.
The Cloudcroft NWS Climate COOP Station 84.
The Sierra Blanca Automated SNOTEL Station 74.
(Click On The Link Above To See More Locations).
Sept 1st
Roswell 92/66
Artesia 91/61
Carlsbad 92/67
Hope 90/64
Alamogordo 90/67
Tatum 89/59
Hobbs 88/65
Caprock 87/60
Carrizozo 87/56
Elk 82/51
Ruidoso 77/48
Mountain Park 77/54
Cloudcroft 70/46
El Paso 92/70
Albuquerque 87/63
A few isolated to widely scattered showers and t-storms are forecast over and near the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon into the weekend. In fact, a t-storm just dropped .43" at the Queen Raws.
A PWS (Dark Canyon) located southeast of Chipaway Park along St Hwy 130 in the central Sacramento Mountains has recorded 1.45" so far today.
Over the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains, scattered showers and t-storms will occur today through the upcoming weekend. With the higher elevations are the most favored for getting wet. Localized heavy rainfall from t-storms may cause localized flash flooding, especially over and near the Ruidoso burn scar areas. Storm total rainfall amounts could be in the 1" to 2" range in a few areas.
We have a 10% to 20% chance of seeing a few isolated showers and/or t-storms over the southeastern plains this afternoon into tonight. Then zip, zadda, nada through Labor Day.
A long-awaited and much-anticipated upper air pattern change is underway. A series of strong upper-level troughs of low pressure will continue to strengthen in the Gulf of Alaska and dive southeastward into the Western and Northern U.S. over the next two weeks. In time, our nemesis, the summer monsoonal upper-level high-pressure ridge, will weaken as these progressively colder and wetter Pacific storms bump up against it over the Great Basin and the Desert Southwest. Normal for September.
The Eastern Pacific is running on steroids as far as hurricane activity goes. There are three named systems out there now. Hurricanes Lowell and Karnia, and soon-to-be hurricane Marie. Norbert is next up on the list, with more likely later.
With the Polar Jet Stream increasingly getting stronger and moving further south with time (fall), the subtropical jet stream will begin to strengthen later this fall. The phasing of the two jet streams later this fall and winter will play a huge role, along with the continuing development of a strong El Niño in our weather. I wish I could tell you to what extent, but I can't, not yet anyway.
September can and has many times in the past been a very wet month for the southeastern plains. In fact, on average it is our wettest month of the year. The burning question is whether or not El Niño will enhance our September rains this year, or not? Current long-range forecasts are not very optimistic about this prospect. However, all it takes is a couple of dying Pacific or Gulf hurricanes or tropical storms to spread their remnant tropical moisture into the area, and then everything changes. Stay tuned; change is in the air.
Number Of Days With High Temps Of 100º Or Above This Year.
Today.
Wednesday.
Thursday.
Friday.
Sunday.
New Mexico 3-Day Rainfall Forecasts.
(Valid Today Through 6 PM MDT Sunday).
September Drought Outlook.
(June 15th - Sept 1st, 2026).
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
Comments
Post a Comment
Your comments, questions, and feedback on this post/web page are welcome.