Widespread Soaking Rainfall & T-Storms - With An Increasing Flash Flood Threat!
Sunset - Artesia, New Mexico.
A Backdoor Cold Front Arrives Tonight.
The fall season's first southward and westward-moving cold front was slowly making its way down the eastern plains this afternoon. At 3 PM, it was 73 in Raton and Clayton and 77 at the Cannon AFB near Clovis behind the front. Further south, ahead of it, Carlsbad was 97.
Cooler air combined with an increase in cloud cover and rainfall will finally knock our temperatures down to below normal this week starting on Tuesday. Highs across the southeastern plains are forecast to range from the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday, and the upper 70's to the low 80's Wednesday through Friday. Depending upon how extensive the cloud cover and rainfall is we may even end up a tad cooler than this.
The cold front will push west of the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan mountains on Tuesday. Highs tomorrow in the mountains will range from near 60 in the Cloudcroft and nearby higher areas to the low 70's to mid 70's in the Mayhill, Sacramento/Weed/Timberon, High Rolls/Mountain Park, Hondo, Capitan, and Mescalero areas. Highs the rest of the week will range from the mid to upper 60's in the lower mountain communities to the mid to upper 50's for the higher mountain communities.
Numerous To Widespread Showers & T-Storms This Week.
(Increasing Flash Flood Threat Tuesday Through Thursday.)
A deep fetch of subtropical monsoonal moisture will be pulled northward and northeastward into New Mexico and parts of West Texas Tuesday into at least Thursday. Low-level upslope flow behind the cold front will increase across the eastern half of the state tonight into Tuesday and spread westward Tuesday and Wednesday.
Adding to the mix will be tropical moisture from Hurricane Polo streaming northward into the Desert Southwest this week. How much of an influence Hurricane Polo's remnant moisture will have on the area is questionable, especially later this week into next weekend. A series of upper-level troughs of low pressure and disturbances will rotate inland from the Pacific Northwest Tuesday into at least Friday to help fuel rains and thunderstorms.
Hurricane Polo is undergoing rapid intensification this afternoon. Polo went from an area of disturbed weather yesterday afternoon to a Category 1 Hurricane this afternoon. Polo is forecast to become a Major Hurricane by Wednesday evening with sustained winds of 165 mph gusting near 200 mph! He will be the fly in the ointment later this week into next weekend. How much of his remnant tropical moisture gets entrained within the southwesterly flow aloft and transported northeast into New Mexico and nearby areas is questionable at this time. If we take a direct hit from his remnant tropical moisture, then the flash flood threat over the area would greatly increase.
Record-to-near-record levels of subtropical and tropical moisture aloft are expected over the state this week. This, combined with the low-level moisture, upper-level disturbances passing overhead, and instability, will set the stage for many areas of the state to receive widespread soaking rainfall.
Rainfall in many areas is likely to be heavy. Some of the thunderstorms that form Tuesday into Thursday will be capable of producing torrential rainfall rates in excess of 2" per hour. Three-day rainfall totals (Tuesday into Thursday) across southern New Mexico and from the central mountain chain eastward across the eastern half of the state (including southeastern New Mexico) easily could be in the 2" to 4" range. Locally higher storm total amounts will be possible. Some model forecasts have called for pockets of up to 4" to 6" and even 6" to 8". These forecast rainfall totals are not set in stone and may very well change.
Flash Flood Threat Increases Tuesday Into Thursday!
Widespread heavy rainfall with areas of possibly excessive rainfall will create a widespread flash flood threat across much of New Mexico Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. Flash Flood Watches have been issued and will likely be updated or revised this week.
Flash flooding will likely occur over many areas that receive heavy to very heavy downpours Tuesday through Thursday, including the following areas:
Urban, city, and town areas (streets and low-lying areas) that are prone to flooding.
Small streams and rivers in the state except for far northwestern and northeastern New Mexico. This could change over time, so keep an eye on your local forecasts in these areas.
At this time, the greatest threat for river flooding appears to be along the Pecos River watershed of eastern and southeastern New Mexico.
Small mountain streams and rivers, including but not limited to the Rio Ruidoso, the Rio Hondo, the Rio Bonito, Cedar Creek, the Sacramento River, the Rio Penasco, and others across the state, may flood and overflow their banks. Especially in and around the burn scar areas.
Normally dry arroyos, which are too many to mention across most of the state. The normally dry arroyos in the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains, and across the lower elevations of Chaves, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Otero, and Culberson Counties will be subject to flooding.
Note that the Queen Raws received over 3.50" of rain two days ago, and the upper Rio Felix watershed around the Comanche Canyon area received 3" to 5" several days ago. Heavy rainfall has also occurred off and on recently over other parts of the Sacramento Mountains and other areas of the state, so it won't take much rainfall for flash flooding to occur in those locations that are already soaked.
Some of you may be tired of me saying this, but there are tens of thousands of people who moved into southeastern New Mexico and parts of West Texas who have never experienced a widespread flash flood event in this part of the country. Don't be fooled. Our flash flooding is extremely dangerous and life-threatening, and many lives have been lost over time locally. Heed all watches and warnings. New Mexico and nearby West Texas also have a long history of flash flooding and deaths from these floods.
I realize that we have been in a roughly six-to-nine-year drought over the area, but this is how we break our droughts. We go from record heat and drought to record rains and flooding. The last time we had a widespread event like this impending event was during September 2013 and September 2014. The catastrophic flash flooding in Roswell in October 2024 was a highly localized event and did not affect all of southeastern New Mexico.
Remember: Turn Around - Don't Drown!
Never drive through a flooded arroyo or low-lying area. Flooded city streets and intersections can easily become raging rivers of fast-moving water capable of sweeping people and vehicles away. It only takes a foot of water to sweep people away and 18" for vehicles. Water depths may be impossible to determine, and roads may be washed out, especially at night when most flash flood deaths occur...most of them in vehicles.
This is a complicated pattern and setup, and additional changes in our forecasts are possible this week, so please keep abreast of your local forecasts.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 214 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 206 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop along a cold front that moves into the area today and Tuesday. A few storms will be capable of producing localized severe downburst winds, and heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding. - Highs remain above normal today, but finally trend cooler Tuesday through the end of the week. - The heavy rainfall threat increases across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas beginning Tuesday night lasting through at least Thursday. We will be monitoring these locations for an increased potential for flash flooding. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 138 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1225 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture will bring widespread heavy rain Tuesday through Thursday with a good chance for scattered occurrences of flash flooding, as well as some main stem river and tributary flooding. - The monsoon moisture surge will continue at a less intense pace Friday with a continued threat of locally heavy rainfall, even as rain amounts begin to trend downward. - A drying and warming trend will begin this weekend. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1250 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1249 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026 - Quiet and warm weather will continue today, with just a very slight chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon. - A cool front will interact with a late season monsoon moisture surge and bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Localized flash flooding will be a risk over a large portion of the area. - Periods of heavy rain and a risk of flash flooding will continue Wednesday and Thursday, before easing up some Friday into the weekend. &&
(Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday).
You Want The Truth; You Can’t Handle The Truth!
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