Historical Christmas Wx In NM & Better Chances For Rain & Snow This Upcoming Holiday Weekend.
Max Snow Depth Ended Up At 12" At Our Home In Carlsbad.
Merry Christmas
Everyone!
Near Record To Record Heat Christmas Eve & Christmas This Year.
Winter is on spring vacation for New Mexico this Christmas week. Speaking of spring, our daily high/low temps will be closer to early spring or late fall values for much of the state the rest of this holiday week. No doubt many new daily and possibly a few new all-time daily high temp records will fall, as well as a few daily record warm low temperatures.
If you're looking for a white Christmas, then you will have to journey up to the high country of far northern New Mexico, where snow may fall above 10,000' late Christmas Eve into Christmas.
A chance for scattered light rain showers exists across the lowlands of western and northern New Mexico late Christmas Eve into Christmas, with storm totals forecast to be less than a quarter of an inch.
The Sacramento mountains have a slight chance (20% to 30%) of rain and snow showers starting this coming Sunday and next Monday.
Light rain showers may even dot the landscape of the southeastern plains Sunday and Monday and may even mix in with a few light snow showers at night.
A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for parts of the Permian Basin of West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico Christmas Eve morning.
Late this upcoming holiday weekend into early next week, a cold front and Pacific storm may bring more seasonable temps along with a better chance for more widespread lowland rains and mountain snows to the state.
As is so often the case with winter storm forecasts this far out in time, there remains a lot of uncertainty within the numerous forecast model outputs so expect changes in our forecasts this upcoming holiday weekend into early next week. Hopefully these will be for the better with a decent winter storm headed for the state...At least this is what I am hoping for.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1104 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1057 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025 - Patchy dense fog is expected this morning across portions of the central/eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau. Drive with caution if encountering fog this morning! - More widespread and denser fog is forecast tonight into tomorrow morning across the Permian Basin, far southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos, and Stockton Plateau. - Above average high and low temperatures for this week and record warm low temperatures for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day forecast through this week. - No precipitation chances until late this weekend into next week, with amounts, timing, and precipitation type uncertain at this time range. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 125 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025 Current satellite imagery shows low clouds and fog development across portions of the Hill Country. This is expected to expand northwest as the night progresses bringing the potential of patchy dense fog over the eastern half of the forecast area (portions of central/eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau) early this morning. The HREF has high ( > 80%) probabilities of dense fog (visibilities below 0.5 mile) over far eastern Pecos and eastern Terrell counties, while medium (40-60%) probabilities over the central and eastern Permian extending into the Stockton Plateau. Drive with caution if encountering fog this morning! By 10am CST, fog will cease over the aforementioned areas. The well above normal temperature trend continues today lasting through much of the week, thanks to an upper-level ridge centered over the region. Highs this afternoon are anticipated to range in the mid 70s and low 80s for most locations. Tonight, return flow advects more moisture from the Gulf resulting in more fog development. High resolution guidance suggests more widespread and denser fog spanning over portions of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, Stockton Plateau, and Trans Pecos. The highest ( > 80%) probabilities in dense fog occurring during this timeframe is centered over portions of far southeast New Mexico, western Permian Basin, and the Stockton Plateau. Warm lows in the 40s to upper 50s remain as fog and clouds move in overnight. Christmas Eve, temperatures are forecast to be a couple of degrees cooler than today as cloud cover persists through the afternoon. This is due to shortwave impulses within the flow of the upper ridge aiding in ascent for cloud cover. Christmas Eve night into Christmas morning, surface southerly winds will promote continued near record- breaking warm lows in the 40s to mid 50s, along with patchy fog for the eastern half of the forecast area. Lamberson && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 125 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025 Mid to upper ridging over the Southern Great Plains into Southeast US persists into the weekend, before a weather system associated with a decrease in ridging and increasing in troughing developing from west to east results in a chance of showers and cooler temperatures. Each day, breezy south/southwest winds this week develop in vicinity of lee troughing over the western higher terrain, where winds are forecast to be highest compared to surrounding lower elevations. Temperatures through the week will feature highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s F, upper 60s to lower 70s F higher elevations, and mid to upper 80s F Rio Grande basins. However, persistent large scale subsidence and accompanying warming from mid to upper ridging and south/southwest downsloping winds increasing ahead of the next weather system results in a warming trend in temperatures mid to late week (Christmas Eve until the day after Christmas). Lows likewise settle into the mid 40s to mid 50s F range as dew point temperatures/boundary layer moisture in the 30s F western higher terrain and SE NM plains, mid 30s to mid 40s F Big Bend into much of central and northern Permian Basin, and lower to mid 50s F Terrell County into southeast and easternmost Permian Basin limits overnight cooling. High and low temperatures begin to trend down by a few degrees Saturday and Saturday night, but the main wave of CAA is still expected to arrive Sunday and Monday. While the pattern does not look very favorable for precipitation and any accumulations are uncertain this far out, some models are showing precipitation for Sunday and Monday accompanying cooler temperatures, which we will continue to monitor. Deterministic and ensemble models are showing a range of solutions, with ECMWF and CMC showing more of a progressive troughing pattern developing from west to east and little if any precipitation. In contrast, the Grand Ensemble and ensemble cluster members, EC-AIFS, GFS, and AIGFS have a split flow mid tropospheric pattern with troughing closing off over CA and another lobe of the troughing deepening more over eastern Canada into the Ohio Valley, with highest and most widespread precipitation accumulations over northern and eastern parts of the forecast area in the GFS and AIGFS models, even while subtle ridging persists over the forecast area. Finally, ICON is showing a more quasi-zonal solution with little to no precipitation accumulation through early next week. This is all in comparison to NBM showing highest precipitation accumulations of only a few hundredths of an inch over westernmost higher terrain through early next week. At this time range, temperatures are still uncertain, but every model apart from the GFS shows a cold front moving through the area later in the day Sunday, and Monday looks to be the cooler of the two days in all models. NBM depicts temperatures for most locations outside of the Rio Grande not getting above the 50s and 60s F Sunday, and not above 60s F except for Presidio Valley into Big Bend Monday. Despite dew point temperatures falling below 30s F, lows only look to fall into the 20s to 30s F range Sunday and Monday nights, due to low clouds accompanying the next push of cooler air. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM CST Wednesday for Andrews- Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Martin- Midland-Mitchell-Reagan-Scurry-Upton-Winkler. NM...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM MST Wednesday for Central Lea-Northern Lea-Southern Lea. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1102 AM MST Tue Dec 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1039 AM MST Tue Dec 23 2025 - Dry and unseasonably warm weather persists with numerous high temperature records challenged today. - Precipitation chances will make a long awaited return late on Christmas Eve across far western New Mexico and then spread east into far north central areas on Christmas Day. Rain is expected below 10,000ft with any notable impacts from snow relegated to the peaks of the northern mountains. - More seasonable temperatures will prevail late in the weekend behind a stronger backdoor cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1211 AM MST Tue Dec 23 2025 Per the 00Z upper air analysis, the upper high was over far west TX at near 589dam at 500mb. The KABQ 00Z upper air sounding showed a 500mb height of 586dam, which was 1 decameter away from tying a daily record. Anomalously high pressure heights will persist over the area today, with surface temperatures that will be 20-25 degrees above average and once again challenging daily records. The upper high will continue east to over the upper Gulf coast on Wednesday as a highly amplified upper level trough off of the west coast taps Pacific moisture and pounds CA and the Great Basin. Increasing southwest flow aloft across our region will bring Pacific moisture advection on Wednesday, with PWATs that will rise to near daily records. A top-down moistening of the atmosphere will ensue, with orographic forcing bringing increasing precipitation chances the will favor the western high terrain. However, the forcing isn`t notably strong and with very high snow levels of 10-11Kft, no winter weather impacts are expected through Christmas Eve. The added cloud cover and evaporative cooling of the lower boundary layer provided by the top-down moistening process will take the edge off of temperatures Wednesday, but temps are still forecast to be above to well above average. This is especially true across the eastern plains thanks to westerly winds providing downslope warming. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1211 AM MST Tue Dec 23 2025 PWATs will begin to trend back down Christmas Day, but a relatively moist atmosphere will remain in place with strong southwest flow aloft. Precipitation will be hard to come-by outside of orographically forced precip across the northern mountains. So unfortunately, chances for a white Christmas are zilch unless you live high up in the northern mountains. Breezy to locally windy conditions are forecast across east central and northeast NM on Christmas Day, with only very low probabilities of reaching advisory criteria. Otherwise, temperatures will remain above to well above average on Christmas Day, especially across the eastern plains due to downslope warming from westerly winds. Friday will be similar across our area as the west coast trough fills and moves inland. There is still plenty of model spread with the track and timing of the upper level trough, but all of the model solutions are showing a weakening feature through the weekend. The medium range model solutions also agree on a stronger backdoor cold front this weekend, but differ some on the timing and moisture availability. Forecast confidence drops off significantly beyond Saturday, but worthy of note that the 00Z models are in agreement with rising pressure heights over the region late in the weekend and into early next week as a Rex block takes shape offshore of OR/CA. We`ll likely have to wait for that pattern to break-down before notable precipitation chances return. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1007 AM MST Tue Dec 23 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 930 AM MST Tue Dec 23 2025 - Record warmth this week, lowland highs in the lower to mid seventies. - Increasing clouds Wednesday and Thursday with a low chance of rain showers west of the Continental Divide. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 930 AM MST Tue Dec 23 2025 Upper level high pressure will remain in residence today, leading to more near-record to record warmth across the Borderland. Meanwhile, a system in the Pacific will begin migrating southward, allowing for subtropical moisture to filter in across the Desert Southwest. Increasing high clouds will work to hinder excessive temperatures, especially out west, but well above average warmth will still prevail. The sky cover will help to keep overnight temperatures from dipping as low as previous nights, thanks to impairing radiative cooling processes. As the trough oscillates in the Pacific, moisture will edge ever closer to western zones of southern NM. While cloud cover will be much more widespread across the Borderland, above average and record warmth, and even record warmth, will still exist through the end of the work week. Low-end chances for precipitation will favor the Gila Wednesday night into Thursday. The Pacific low will move inland Friday night into Saturday. The decreasing pressure heights may work to put a damper on record temperatures, though daytime highs will still remain well above normal. The slug of subtropical moisture will still be in place across portions of the Desert Southwest. As the deeper low near the Great Lakes continues progressing eastward, the second southern low will become cutoff from the main flow, forced to wander in the Pacific. This would create a squeeze play between the displaced low and the high pressure in the Atlantic, potentially leading to more widespread precip coverage across the Borderland early next week. Additionally, a backdoor front is shaping up to descend down the Great Plains in the wake of the Great Lakes low Sunday night. As this front surges southward and westward, it would bring sufficient enough cooling to get temperatures across the Borderland back toward normal, and potentially a bit below normal, on Monday. &&
Forecast Low Temps Christmas Eve Morning.
Forecast High Temps Christmas Eve Day.
Forecast Low Temps Christmas Morning.
Forecast High Temps Christmas Day.
NWS NM 3-Day Precipitation Forecasts.
NWS NM 3-Day Snowfall Forecasts.
Southeastern & Southern New Mexico Christmas Climatology.
Christmas Eve.
Christmas.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
Comments
Post a Comment
Your comments, questions, and feedback on this post/web page are welcome.