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Connecting The Dots Between Solar Cycles/Volcano Activity & Their Role In Our Planets Weather & Climate Cycles.

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January 9, 2026. Stormy Winter Skies. West Of Hope, New Mexico.  Several years ago, during the middle of the very heated and controversial climate change propaganda and debates, a group of respected scientists publicly came out with this statement: "It's the sun, stupid." That may offend some, but to this day it remains one of my all-time favorite quotes.  The sun and its associated solar cycles drive the planet's climate and weather. Volcanoes also play a major role, and the sun plays a major role in how and when they erupt. When they reach the major or historical eruption stage, they alter the planets short term weather and long term climate cycles.  The solar cycles, especially the solar minima cycles and grand solar minimums have drastically altered our weather and climate throughout history. Most notably during the last Little Ice Age. Many believe we are due or overdue for another such event.  Add to this mix the sun's effects on the world's ocean temper...
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Quick Hitting Winter Storm Wednesday-Thursday.

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November 30, 2025. 
Final 2025 Fall Sunset.
Penasco River Ranch - Northeast Of Dunken, NM.

Blog Updated At 3:35 PM MST, Tuesday, Dec 2, 2025. 

Warm, dry, southwesterly and westerly downsloping winds are forecast to gust up to around 40 to 50 mph across east-central New Mexico this afternoon. High temps across parts of the southeastern plains will climb up into the upper 60's to near 70.

A  mid-upper level shortwave trough of low pressure is forecast to dive southward into the Great Basin late today into Wednesday, before swinging eastward across New Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday.

A cold front will drop southward into northern New Mexico this afternoon and push slowly south through the state Wednesday night. Colder air will overspread the state behind it.

Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for parts of the Northern Mountains, the Central Highlands, and Northeastern New Mexico today through Thursday. Accumulating snowfall is expected across these areas, including the upper Rio Grande Valley, the northern and central mountains, the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains. 

Total accumulations of between 1" and 4" below 7,500', and between 4" and 8" above 7,500', with up to 10" over the higher peaks of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. 

Up to 21/2" is forecast for the central highlands, including I-40 between Moriarty and Santa Rosa, including Clines Corners. Current forecasts call for less than an inch in the Ruidoso and Cloudcroft areas, with a couple of inches at Ski Apache.

A chance for a light mix of rain and showers exists over the southeastern plains from roughly north of a line from Hondo, Roswell, and Tatum on Wednesday night. At this time (noon Tuesday), no accumulations are expected. 

As this next winter storm departs the area, gusty winds will affect the state, especially over the mountains and east Friday through the weekend. Strong northwesterly winds look to rake the southeastern plains and the Guadalupe Mountains this coming Saturday. Above normal temps and more dry weather return by next Monday. 

Long-range forecasts over the next two weeks call for above-normal temperatures and drier-than-normal conditions. 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
351 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 346 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Warming trend continues Wednesday before another front knocks Thursday`s
  temperatures down well below normal again.

- Low (10-30%) precipitation chances Wednesday night into early Thursday.
  Snow flurries possible across southeast New Mexico and
  Guadalupe Mountains Thursday morning. Little to no accumulation
  along with no travel impacts are expected.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
108 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1256 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Strong crosswinds will impact travel across east central New
  Mexico this afternoon and Saturday afternoon.

- Minor to locally moderate travel impacts from snow over the
  northern mountains and adjacent highlands stretching down to
  I-40 near Clines Corners mid Wednesday into early Thursday.

&&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1254 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1247 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

 - Dry conditions, daily warming, and marginal afternoon breezes
   through midweek.

 - A minor storm system passes just to our north early Thursday.
   Light precipitation will favor the Gila and Sacramento mountain
   zones with elsewhere staying dry. Temperatures will be around 5
   to 10 degrees cooler.

 - Dry conditions, typical breezes, and daily warming return for
   this weekend.

&&


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
955 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

NMZ212>216-227>229-030100-
/O.EXT.KABQ.WW.Y.0019.251203T1900Z-251204T1200Z/
Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-Northern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre
de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-Johnson and Bartlett
Mesas Including Raton Pass-Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast
Highlands-
955 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM
MST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 4
  inches below 7500 feet, and between 4 and 8 inches above 7500
  feet. Locally up to 10 inches on the highest peaks of the Sangre
  de Cristo Mountains.

* WHERE...Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Glorieta Mesa Including
  Glorieta Pass, Upper Rio Grande Valley, Johnson and Bartlett Mesas
  Including Raton Pass, Far Northeast Highlands, and Northeast
  Highlands.

* WHEN...From noon Wednesday to 5 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Tire traction will be
  reduced. Extend the distance between your vehicle and the vehicle
  in front of you. This includes I-25 between Glorieta Pass and
  Raton Pass. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday
  evening and Thursday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will begin to accumulate near the
  Colorado border Wednesday afternoon, but not until sunset
  Wednesday south of Highway 64.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. For the latest road
conditions, dial 511 or 1.800.432.4269, or visit http://nmroads.com.

&& $$ MA
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
955 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

NMZ223-030100-
/O.EXB.KABQ.WW.Y.0019.251204T0000Z-251204T1200Z/
Central Highlands-
955 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM MST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two and half
  inches.

* WHERE...Central Highlands.

* WHEN...From 5 PM Wednesday to 5 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow packed or icy road conditions for the
  Thursday morning commute. This includes I-40 between Moriarty and
  Santa Rosa, including Clines Corners.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. For the latest road
conditions, dial 511 or 1.800.432.4269, or visit http://nmroads.com.

&& $$
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
955 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

NMZ210-030100-
/O.EXB.KABQ.WW.Y.0019.251203T1900Z-251204T1200Z/
Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
955 AM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM MST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4
  inches, except between 4 and 8 inches above 7500 feet.

* WHERE...Tusas Mountains Including Chama.

* WHEN...From noon Wednesday to 5 AM MST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Tire traction will be
  reduced. Extend the distance between your vehicle and the vehicle
  in front of you.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. For the latest road
conditions, dial 511 or 1.800.432.4269, or visit http://nmroads.com.

&& $$
---------------------------------------------------------------------
High Wind Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
232 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

NMZ027-TXZ270-271-031015-
/O.NEW.KMAF.HW.W.0036.251202T2132Z-251203T1500Z/
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe Mountains Above
7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Including the cities of Pine Springs, Guadalupe Mountains
National Park, and Queen
232 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025 /332 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025/

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile
  vehicles like campers, vans, and tractor trailers. Severe
  turbulence near the mountains will be hazardous for low flying
  light aircraft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds will be particularly hazardous at higher elevations where the
strongest winds are likely to occur. Be especially careful driving
in these mountainous areas. People driving high-profile vehicles
should strongly consider postponing travel in these areas until the
winds subside.

Use caution if flying low near the mountains as severe turbulence is
possible.

&&  $$ Sprang

NWS Albuquerque Watches & Warnings.
(Click On The Link Above For The Latest Updates).





Surface Map Forecast.
(Valid From 5 AM MST This Morning Through 5 PM MST Friday, Dec 5, 2025).








6-10 Day & 8-14 Day Temp/Precip Outlooks. 



There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

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My Top 10 Most Popular Posts

Artesia, NM Mothership Supercell Thunderstorm. 9-17-2016.

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Blog Updated 9-19-2016 @ 6:31 PM MDT. Diane & I Chase A Monster Of A Supercell!  Saturday, Sept 17, 2016.  Courtesy Of Diane J. Malone. My Wife (Diane) And I Took Old Yo Crossing Rd. South Out Of Roswell And Finally Got Out In Front Of This Monster Of A Supercell Thunderstorm On St. Hwy 13. She Took This Photo Near Mile Marker 11. Pretty Much Describes Rural Southeastern New Mexico. 3:09 PM MDT: This Beast Had Multiple Wall Clouds That At Times Showed Slow Rotation And At Other Times Was Spinning Like A Top. This Was A Ground Hugger At Times As Well. Initially When This Storm Developed South Of Picacho It Was Showing A Northeastward Movement On Radar. That Didn't Last Long As It Intensified And Started Heading East Then Made A Right Turn (Right Mover) And Took Off To The Southeast. At Times Moving Southeastward At 15-20 MPH Then It Would Accelerating To 40 MPH.  3:47 PM MDT: We Are About 1 Mile West Of Hope In Western Eddy County On ...
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Monster Of A Snowstorm Coming This Christmas Weekend?

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New Mexico This Coming Christmas Weekend? Those of us who live in New Mexico have developed a unique sense of humor when it comes to our weather. I've often said that we live in a place where extremes more often than not are normal. Take for example the rest of this weeks forecast for Carlsbad depicted below. Latest NWS Forecast For Carlsbad, New Mexico. My high temperature here at our home yesterday was 74°F. Contrast that to what's coming this weekend...depicted below. Its not unusual at all to have high temps in the 70's or even the 80's ahead of a strong winter storm locally. We saw this with the major snowstorms in December 1987, December 1997, and February 2011, and with other strong winter storms too. Long Range Model Forecasts On Weekend Storm. This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST European (ECMWF) 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST U.S. GFS 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 11AM MST Sunday, Dec ...
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Powerful Winter Storm Is Hammering New Mexico! Worst Is Yet To Come.

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Blog Updated At 9:57 PM MST. Courtesy Of Glen Brazell. Shared On Twitter By Kerry Jones. Nearly 30" The Ground In Ruidoso, NM. Downtown Ruidoso, New Mexico. Ruidoso Web Cam Snapshot At 1:54 PM MST This Afternoon. National Weather Service Watches & Warnings In Effect. As Of 5 AM MST Friday, December 28, 2018. Click On This Link To Open Up The Latest Updated Map. Then Once The Map Opens Up, Click Anywhere On The Map To Be Re-directed To Your Area Of Interest. The NWS Office That Has Forecast And Warning Responsibility For That Location Will Have The Latest Weather Information Posted On Their Web Page. US GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Analysis. Valid At 11 PM MST Thursday Evening. As of midnight last night a slow moving and powerful closed upper level low was located over northern Arizona. US GFS 500 Millibar (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 5 PM MST Today.  This winter storm is forecast to continue sinking slowly ...
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25th Anniversary Of The Carlsbad, NM (May 31, 1991) Tornado Coming Up.

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Blog Updated @ 3:11 PM MDT. Click On The Photos & Newspaper Articles To Enlarge Them. On May 31, 1991 at 8:39 PM MDT a then rated (F-2 Tornado touched down 2.1 miles southeast of the Carlsbad Airport (as the crow flies) just southwest of the end of Wagonwheel Rd. A day and time that many local residents will never forget. Newspaper articles at the time reported conflicting reports (understandably so) concerning the damage, injuries, and the time of the tornado. To many residents this was a shock...not something that we are used to seeing or dealing with.  The tornado touched down right at dusk. Cass Hernandez who was the Carlsbad Airport Security Guard at the time observed the tornado 2 miles southeast of the Airport as power flashes occurred from the tornado destroying power lines and transformers. It was eerie looking contrasted with the darkness and power flashes but there was no mistaking what was happening. The Tornado's path is circled in red...
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Major Winter Storm May Paralyze/Bury Parts Of NM & Nearby Areas Tonight Into Wednesday!

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Winter Storm Watches & Warnings Are In Effect - Click On This Link For Additional Details. U.S. GFS Storm Total Snowfall Forecast. Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday. Today's (Sunday) noon mdt run of the GFS forecast model is just plain nuts. Its trend has been to produce heavier snowfall totals and aerial coverages with each new run over the past day. This has me worried. 19" for Roswell, 12" for Artesia, 15" for Clovis, 28" for the Fort Sumner area, and 17" for Corona! This would be wild in the dead of winter but is absolutely unheard of in the part of the world in October! The last time we saw something like this come to pass was the Blizzard of December 27, 28, 29th, 2015. Will history repeats itself? I hope not but I will admit that I am worried. My feeling is that we will see snowfall accumulations of around 6" to 12" in SE NM and 6" to 18" in the mountains.  GFS Freezing Rain Accumulation Forecast. Valid Tonight Through PM MDT Wednes...
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2011 Skywarn Spotter Training Classes & My Thoughts.

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Artesia, NM Skywarn Spotter Training Class.  Midland National Weather Service Warning  Coordination Meteorologist Pat Vesper. Midland National Weather Service Warning  Coordination Meteorologist Pat Vesper. Roswell, NM Skywarn Spotter Training Class. Albuquerque National Weather Service Warning Coordination Meteorologist Kerry Jones. Albuquerque National Weather Service Meteorologist Daniel Porter. Albuquerque National Weather Service Meteorologist Daniel Porter & Warning Coordination Meteorologist Kerry Jones. Summary. Our first Eddy County  Skywarn Spotter Training meeting kicked off in Artesia this past Monday night. A total of 16 people attended. This was down a little from the past couple of years. Our second class was held in Carlsbad Tuesday night and there were 17 people in attendance. This was about half as many people that attended last year. I will have to go back and check but there have been some 160 or so people in Eddy County sign up for our ...
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Tonight's GFS Is As Drunk As This Mornings ECMWF. Historic Snowstorm Next Weekend?

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GFS Drinking Same Kool-Aid As ECMWF? Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS Surface Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, Dec 26, 2015. Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST U.S. GFS Accumulated Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. U.S. GFS 10-Day Forecasts. Albuquerque, New Mexico. Clines Corners, New Mexico. Cannon Air Force Base - Clovis, New Mexico. Corona, New Mexico. Sierra Blanca Regional Airport - Ruidoso, New Mexico. Roswell, New Mexico. Artesia, New Mexico. Carlsbad, New Mexico. Hobbs, New Mexico. Guadalupe Pass, Texas. El Paso, Texas. Blog Updated @ 12:15 AM MST: Tonight's 00Z/5 PM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast. Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. Just took a look at the tonight's run of the European model which just came in. Its forecasting snowfall totals of 26" fo...
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Major Winter Storm To Hammer New Mexico & West Texas Thanksgiving Week!

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Blog Updated At (;15 AM MST Sunday, Nov 24th, 2019. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Analysis. At 11 PM MST Saturday Night. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast. Valid For 2 PM MST Tuesday. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast. Valid For 5 AM MST Thanksgiving Morning. A Thanksgiving To Remember! Thanksgiving week this year will be one to remember it appears. As of this Sunday morning a cutoff upper level low remains parked well southwest of San Diego, California. This storm will get kicked to the southeast, weaken, and eventually get absorbed by a strong upper level trough of low pressure diving southward out of the northern Rockies on Tuesday. By Thanksgiving a large, deep, and cold mid-upper level closed low is forecast to be centered near central California. The other models are coming more in line with the GFS and its forecasts but there still remain differences in the timing, strength, and location of the storms to affect our area next week. Surface M...
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Are We Fixing To Go From Drought To Flood In SE NM?

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Blog Updated At 1:45 PM MDT Saturday, May 19, 2018. May 24, 2013. Looking Back To The West Of Hope. Big Changes Coming Starting Tonight. GFS 500 MB (18,000') Forecast. Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday, May 21, 2018. Surface Map Analysis. Valid At 6 AM MDT This Saturday Morning. Temperatures At 10 AM This Morning. Temperatures At 1 PM MDT This Afternoon. Now that's a stout cold front. Take a look at these temperatures as of 1 PM MDT this Saturday afternoon. As Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas climbs up into the 90's the plains of northeastern Colorado, most of Nebraska, Wyoming, and parts of Montana are in the 40's and 50's!  NWS MesoWest Reported Low Temperatures This Morning. Surface Map Forecast. Strong Cold Front Arrives Late Tonight. A strong cold front is forecast to move southward down the Eastern Plains of New Mexico late tonight into Sunday morning. Low temperatures across the plains ...
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Cloudcroft & Ruidoso, NM Seasonal Snowfall Totals.

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Seasonal Snowfall Totals. (Oct 1st, 2019 - January 19th, 2020). January 11th, 2020. South Of Cloudcroft, New Mexico. Top 25 Highest Seasonal Snowfall Totals. (Cloudcroft, New Mexico 8,750'). Seasonal Totals Are From July 1st - July 1st. Top 25 Highest Seasonal Snowfall Totals. (Ruidoso, New Mexico 6,950'). Seasonal Totals Are From July 1st - July 1st. As a kid growing up in Artesia, New Mexico I always was fascinated by the snowfall in the Sacramento mountains. Especially in the Cloudcroft and Ruidoso areas. Many times Cloudcroft would see their first snowfall by Halloween. It was not unusual to see snow on the ground from around Thanksgiving through Easter in many of these years.  Sierra Blanca Peak (White Mountain or Old Baldy) west of Ruidoso more often than not was coated with snow from before Thanksgiving to after Easter as well.  If you have been thinking that it does not snow as much in the Sacramento mountains as i...
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My Precipitation Totals - 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad

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My Snowfall Totals - 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

My Snowfall Totals - 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

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This blog and its contents are for informational purposes only! Always have multiple sources of information available to rely upon during severe weather. Do not rely solely on the Internet. Be weather-aware, plan ahead, have a backup plan, and be ready to act before severe weather strikes your location.