Near Record To Record High Temps Continue Into Christmas Week But Changes Are Coming.

- December 20, 2025

November 17, 2025.

Hondo Valley East Of Ruidoso.

Dang, It's Hot For December.

Instead of tossing snowballs and building snowmen, New Mexicans spent the day basking in near record to record heat. Our high temperatures today were some 15 to 25 degrees above normal. No doubt many new daily records were tied and some broken across the state.

So far, the highest temp I can find in the state was an unofficial 86 at a PWS in Lakewood. The Carlsbad Airport reported 83, just one degree shy of the record of 84 set in 1933. Normal high for the date is 56.

The Artesia AG Science Center NMSU site reported a high of 85, which would shatter Artesia's previous record for the date of 80 set way back in 1921. Normal high for the date is 56.

The Roswell Airport reported a high today of 78, which beats their previous record high for the date of 75 set in 1981. Contrast that with their record low temp for today of -10 set back in 1909. And in 1997, on this date, they officially measured 8" of snowfall.

That marked the beginning of the famous three-day Christmas Blizzard that paralyzed much of New Mexico. The hardest hit areas were along and east of the central mountain chain out onto the northeastern, eastern, and southeastern plains.

See my blog post: T he Historic Snowstorm Of 1997.

A weak cold front will slide down the eastern half of the state tonight into early Sunday morning, knocking our high temps back some 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today's readings. With highs in the mid-60's we will still be some ten degrees above normal.

Unusually warm and record-setting high temperatures are forecast to continue Christmas week before a pattern change begins to unfold next Christmas weekend. Highs across the southeastern plains will range from the upper 70's to the low 80's Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, and next Friday.

Breezy conditions will also develop on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day to go along with the warmth.

A few light rain showers will be possible across parts of the lowlands of western and northwestern New Mexico Christmas Eve through Christmas. Spreading eastward to central New Mexico into the holiday weekend. Snow levels will be high and generally above 9,000'.

A slight chance for a mix of rain and snow showers will be possible in the Sacramento and Capitan mountains next Friday night into the holiday weekend. Snow levels will remain high and generally 9,000' or above.

Beyond Christmas, forecast models are calling for a stormier period across the area with the potential for rain and snow across the state next holiday weekend. Since this next potential winter storm will be on the warm side, snow levels will likely remain high also.

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 504 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 503 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 - Fire weather concerns are elevated to near-critical this afternoon as record warmth, low relative humidities, breezy conditions, and drying fuels are forecast. - Temperatures briefly cool down on Sunday before more warmer weather takes shape throughout Christmas week. - Dry conditions continue through the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 120 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 WV imagery this afternoon shows a general zonal pattern across the CONUS, although an upper ridge off the Baja coast is resulting in slight northwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. At the surface, westerly downslope winds and compressional warming ahead of a cold front are combining with increased thicknesses and CAVU conditions to yield an unseasonably warm afternoon less than 24 hours from the start of winter. Highs this afternoon are on track to top out ~ 25 F above normal, with most locations in the 80s. The record high for KMAF is a paltry 79. Unfortunately, the aforementioned cold front will intrude upon the area overnight, w/fropa at KMAF at around 03Z. Overnight minimums will be considerably cooler than this morning`s, but will still average around 10 F above normal. Winter begins at 1503Z Sunday, and temperatures will be a little more representative of the season, at least northeast. Highs will remain above normal by ~ 7-9 F or so. The upside is that surface winds will veer back around to return flow Sunday night, arresting CAA. Even so, mostly clear skies and light winds will promote efficient radiational cooling, allowing overnight lows maybe a degree warmer than tonight`s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 120 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 Well-above normal temperatures are expected to continue all next week, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This is thanks to increasing heights associated with upper-level ridging and southerly to southwesterly surface winds. Even overnight lows look to be well-above normal, with lows in the 40s and 50s each night. In fact, overnight lows will be pushing record territory for "warm lows" on some nights next week. For reference, the normal high and low temperatures at Midland International Air and Space Port (KMAF) are 58F and 33F, respectively. Confidence in these high and low temperatures next week are high (75-90%) as ensemble guidance has been very consistent, with little spread amongst them. Dry conditions persist through the whole forecast period. Greening &&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
419 PM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 403 PM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

- Dry and unseasonably warm weather persists with numerous high
  temperature records challenged through the middle of next week.

- Low elevation rain and high mountain snow will return Christmas
  Eve over western New Mexico and spread slowly east into central
  New Mexico through next weekend. Travel may become difficult in
  areas above 9,000 feet.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1247 PM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

Flow aloft will continue weakening thru Sunday as a sprawling
ridge moves east across northern MX. Northwest winds along and
east of the central mt chain are gusting in the 25 to 35kt range
as of 1230pm while northeast winds increase over northeast NM in
the wake of a backdoor cold front. This front will continue moving
south and west thru tonight as a 1028mb surface high builds south
across OK. Min temps will trend 15 to 25F cooler tonight over
eastern NM but with readings still 5 to 10F above normal. Surface
lee troughing will develop quickly Sunday with south to southwest
winds again across the plains by the afternoon. Max temps will
recover near record high territory again. Southwest winds will
persist Sunday night over eastern NM with readings once again 10
to 20F above normal. Central and western NM will remain tranquil
with light winds, mid slope inversions, and above normal temps
thru Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1247 PM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

A weak perturbation in zonal flow aloft exiting the Front Range
Monday morning will help to deepen surface low pressure over far
northeast NM. This will create breezy west winds over eastern NM
with downslope flow leading to widespread record highs Monday.
Another weak frontal boundary will slip into northeast NM Monday
night with slightly cooler temps for Tuesday. Otherwise, heights
aloft will continue rising with lighter winds areawide and more well
above normal temps.

Some changes begin Tuesday night as the upper high shifts east and a
subtropical moisture tap slides into the southwest CONUS ahead of a
broad upper trough along the west coast. More cloud cover will slide
over the region with slightly breezy southwest winds Wednesday and
more near-record warmth. Enough moisture with orographic forcing
over far western and northwest NM may help to squeeze out some high
terrain rain and snow. Snow levels will likely remain above 9,000 ft
Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
434 PM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 428 PM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

 - Dry conditions persist through Tuesday with no weather impacts
   expected.

 - Near-record warmth through much of the upcoming week, with
   highs about 15 degrees above normal.

 - Increasing clouds midweek with slight chance of showers
   Gila/Black Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 957 AM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

Zonal flow continues over the region for the next few days before
a transition to a more SSW. This zonal flow will keep temperatures
very warm for late Dec with more records likely to fall over the
coming days. Highs over the lowlands will be in the 70s. NBM temps
looked a little low in some areas and did warm a couple degrees
with records being threatened. Overnight lows will continue to
fall off nicely into the 30s and 40s.

The upper flow starts to change going into Tue with the SSW
developing and tapping some subtropical moisture. Most of this
moisture will be mid and high based but out west models agree
there could be enough lower level moisture to squeeze out some
light rain showers, mainly over the Gila region going into Tue
night and Wed. Didn`t go anything above 30 PoPs in the Gila and
10-20 near the AZ border. Cloud cover from this moisture plume
will help to lower high temps and raise overnight lows a little
bit, so less of a chance for records going into Wed.

A quick change to a little more of a WSW flow for Thu/Fri which
will allow temps to warm back up more. Could see some record highs
on Christmas Day which for ELP is 75.

Going into next weekend, there is some timing differences among
the models and ensembles as to how quick a fairly strong upper low
moves onshore and brings in some precip chances to the region. The
GFS is slower moving things eastward with an even slower solution
on the 12Z run than 06Z, but it`s ensemble mean continues to
indicate a quicker solution similar to the EC. The NBM seems to be
closer to the EC solution and brings in some increasing clouds and
precip chances going into Sat. Left things with the NBM PoPs here
with such a wide range of solutions, but temps will start to at
least start a downward trend by this time.

&&