Hundreds of NM December Record Warm Temps Shattered - Now We Flip The Coin & Winter Slaps Us Back To Reality!
At Our Home In Carlsbad, New Mexico.
Blog Updated At 5:14 PM MST Saturday, Dec 27, 2025.
Looking Back At Our December 2015 Blizzard.
Hundreds Of Record Warm NM Temperatures Shattered In December.
December has already gone down in the history books as being unbelievably warm, with a remarkable number of new records tied or broken.
As of Christmas Day, there have been 307 new daily record high temperatures that have either been tied or broken by the state's National Weather Service Climate Co-Op Stations. There have been 143 new daily high minimum (warm overnight lows) tied or broken. Some 31 new all-time December high temperature records have been tied or broken. As well as 14 new all-time December record high overnight lows tied or broken. I've listed just some of these in my blog post, so click on the link to see the full list. And we still have today to go with additional record high temps tied or broken in some areas.
The highest official temperature for the month so far is the 86°F recorded in Artesia on the 21st, which ties their all-time December record high temperature of 86°F last set on December 22, 1933.
Get ready because our weather is fixing to flip the coin and do a complete about face and shock most of our newcomers who have moved here over the past ten years. Especially in southeastern New Mexico, where several hundred thousand have moved in because of the job opportunities in the oil patch. Many of these are from states that don't see that much snow, and going from the 80s to the 20s and 30s with wind chills in the teens, and snow is going to be a rude awakening come Monday.
We did exactly this in December 1987 (Dec 11th-15th), when Artesia officially recorded 9" of snowfall with a low of -13°F on Dec 15th. Their high on the 12th was 83°F. I recorded 13" of snowfall at our family farm/ranch in Lakewood with a low of -13°F. The Carlsbad airport recorded 13" of snow with a low of -4°F on the 15th, after a high of 81°F on the 11th. Hobbs recorded 5" of snow and a low of 7°F on the 15th, after a high of 78 on the 11th.
Ruidoso officially recorded 29.3" of snow with a low of -8F on the 15th after a high of 68 on the 11th. Cloudcroft officially recorded 15.0" of snow with a low of -6F on the 15th after a high of 56 on the 11th. Elk, east of Mayhill, officially recorded 24" of snow and a low of -12F on the 16th after a high of 75 on the 11th. Hope west of Artesia recorded 14" of snow and a low of 4F on the 15th after a high of 80 on the 11th.
As of this writing (early Saturday afternoon), it does not appear that our impending winter storm will be as bad as the 1987 event. But it is going to produce moderate to heavy snow and travel problems. How bad is still up in the air.
Travel on our local highways and roads will be heavy on Monday as many of these people will be returning from their Christmas break. Add snow to this, and it will further complicate our already horribly congested and dangerous roadways. Initially, light rain will fall, then change over to snow. There may also be pockets of freezing rain and sleet before changing over to all snow Monday into Tuesday.
Today will see another round of near-record to record high temperatures across the southeastern plains.
A strong cold front will backdoor its way down the eastern plains of the state on Sunday and continue south and west Sunday night into Monday. Meanwhile, a strong Pacific cold front will work its way eastward across the state on Sunday. A much colder airmass (relative to what we've been experiencing of late) will accompany these two frontal passages.
Rapidly falling temperatures, gusty northerly winds sustained at around 25 to 40 mph, with higher gusts, will drop the wind chill values down into teens and twenties Sunday afternoon. Wind chill values late Sunday night into Monday morning will fall into the single digits and teens across most of the state except for the southwestern quarter, where wind chill temps will be in the 20s and 30s. A few sub-zero wind chill temperatures will occur over the northern mountains.
A long-wave upper-level trough of low pressure will continue to dive southeast across the western U.S. this afternoon into Sunday morning before it splits. With a strong short-wave trough of low pressure swinging across northern New Mexico and southern Colorado on Sunday.
The second piece of the split will sink southwestward to west of the Baja Peninsula. It will wobble around that area until at least the middle of next week, kicking out pieces of energy aided by the southern jet stream that will help fuel our winter storm. This system will end up as a cutoff upper-level low. These things are incredibly hard to forecast, so the timing of our winter storm may be an issue.
A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect today through 11 AM Sunday for the northern Sangre de Cristo and Tusas mountains, including Chama. Additional snow accumulations of 3" to 8" are forecast along with winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Areas of blowing snow may also develop with west-facing slopes above 9,000' receiving the highest amounts.
A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy and Culberson Counties, including the Guadalupe Pass area, from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning. Heavy wet snow is forecast with 4" to 6" possible. Heavy falling snow, blowing snow, will reduce the visibility to less than 1/4 of a mile, creating whiteout conditions that may become life-threatening!
As of 1 PM MST this Saturday afternoon, the following snowfall totals may occur with this winter storm before ending Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.
Central Chaves County: Generally 1"-2". Heavier totals of 4"-5" may be possible.
Southwest Chaves County: Generally 3"-4". Heavier totals of 8"-10" may be possible.
Eddy/Lea County Plains: Generally 1"3". Heavier totals of 4"-6" may be possible.
Guadalupe Mtns of Eddy/Culberson Counties: Generally 2"-4". Heavier totals of 4"-6".
Lincoln County: Generally 1"-3". Heavier totals of 4"-7" in southeast Lincoln County.
Cloudcroft/Mayhill/Timberon areas: 3"-6".
Crow Flats (Otero Mesa): 2"-4".
San Augustin Pass East of Las Cruces: 2"-4".
Cornudas and Dell City: 1"-2"
El Paso, Las Cruces, Alamogordo: 0"-1".
No doubt these expected/forecast snowfall totals may change, and I fully expect them to do so given how far out we are from the storm's impacts Monday into Tuesday night. The storms' exact track and speed are not set in stone, and the models will adjust their forecasts as we go forward in time. I will update you as these changes occur. Of note also is if the snow ends up being heavy and wet, this could pose problems with power and utility lines as well as tree limbs. Especially here in southeastern New Mexico, where some of the trees still haven't shed all of their leaves.
Please keep abreast of your local weather and forecasts and prepare now for what looks like a potentially significant winter storm for the southern half of the state. My weather web page auto-updates, so check it often at Welcome To Southeast New Mexico Weather.
Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1043 AM MST Sat Dec 27 2025 NMZ210-213-214-280300- /O.CON.KABQ.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-251228T1800Z/ Tusas Mountains Including Chama-Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- 1043 AM MST Sat Dec 27 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations between 3 and 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. The heaviest amounts will occur on west-facing slopes above 9,000 feet. * WHERE...Northern and Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and Tusas Mountains Including Chama. * WHEN...Until 11 AM MST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult, especially on Highway 64 near the Brazos Summit, NM-38 over Bobcat Pass, and NM-518 near Holman Hill. Tire traction will be reduced. Extend the distance between your vehicle and the vehicle in front of you. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The weight of heavy wet snow may down some tree limbs. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. For the latest road conditions, dial 511 or 1.800.432.4269, or visit http://nmroads.com. && $$ Guyer
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1107 AM MST Sat Dec 27 2025 NMZ027-TXZ270-271-281000- /O.NEW.KMAF.WS.A.0001.251229T0600Z-251230T1800Z/ Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Including the cities of Pine Springs, Queen, and Guadalupe Mountains National Park 1107 AM MST Sat Dec 27 2025 /1207 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025/ ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and Southeast New Mexico. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow. Whiteout conditions are possible and may make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Some roads could become slick, especially secondary roads and on overpasses. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order. && $$ Hennig
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 506 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 502 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 - A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains of Texas and southeastern New Mexico Sunday night into Tuesday morning for snowfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches. - There is a medium (30-60%) chance of light snow or a light wintry mix of precipitation over southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas Sunday night into Monday night. There is potential for accumulating snowfall of less than 4 inches over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, Van Horn/I-10 corridor, Upper Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin. - Much colder temperatures return Sunday night through Monday night following the passage of a cold front. &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 524 PM MST Sat Dec 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 458 PM MST Sat Dec 27 2025 - Rain and high mountain snow across western and central New Mexico today through tonight, with slick roads on high mountain passes. - Much colder temperatures Sunday and Monday, with a low chance of impactful snow accumulations in Lincoln and Chaves Counties Monday. Those planning to travel in southeastern New Mexico Monday should stay tuned to the latest forecasts. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 420 PM MST Sat Dec 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 416 PM MST Sat Dec 27 2025 - Strong cold front arriving Monday morning will bring gusty east winds, much cooler temperatures, scattered wintry precipitation to southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. - Snow accumulations expected for Sacramento Mountains, Otero Mesa, and Hudspeth Highlands on Monday. Wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow possible for El Paso and Las Cruces. - Temperatures returning closer normal for New Year`s Eve with dry conditions. &&
Surface Map Forecast.
(Valid At 5 AM MST Monday, Dec 29, 2025).
(Valid At 5 PM MST Tuesday, Dec 30, 2025).
(Valid Monday Morning, Dec 29, 2025).
NWS NDFD Forecast Apparent Temperatures.
(Valid At 5 AM MST Monday, Dec 29, 2025).
NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperatures.
(Valid Monday, Dec 29, 2025).
(December 1st - December 25th).
Daily Record Highs 80°F & Above.
Daily Record Max Lows 45°F & Above.
New All-Time Highest Max Temps For December.
New All-Time Highest Max Minimum Temps For December.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
Comments
Post a Comment
Your comments, questions, and feedback on this post/web page are welcome.