Stuck With Unrelenting Summer Heat & No Rain.

GFS 500 MB Forecast.

Valid At Noon Today.

Valid At Noon Tuesday, July 19, 2022.

Water Vapor Satellite Image.

At 10:31 AM MDT Today.

Those red and orange shades depicted across most of New Mexico and Texas indicate dry air at the mid-upper -levels of the atmosphere (5,000' to 40,000'). 

NWS High-Temperature Forecasts.

Today.

Saturday.

Sunday.

Monday.

Tuesday.

Long Range Temperature & Rainfall Forecasts.

6-10 Day Forecasts.

8-14 Days Forecasts.

WPC 10-Day Rainfall Forecast.

Stuck With Unrelenting Summer Heat & No Rain.

Our annual summer monsoon started up with a bang this year and about two weeks earlier than normal. Now the brakes have been put on so to speak as the widespread thunderstorm activity we've seen over the past several weeks dwindles to just about nothing. 

A stout ridge of high pressure at the mid-levels of the atmosphere (500 millibar level) centered today over northeastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado has a death grip on the region and isn't going to budge much until around the middle to end of next week. The center will wobble around the Four Corners area during this time.

Across the lower elevations of the Southern Plains, we will continue to see our afternoon daily high temperatures hover in the 100º to 105º range today through next Tuesday. It's possible that a few locations will exceed 105º for high temps during this time.

Across the northern Sacramento mountains, your high temperatures will range from the mid 80's to near 90º in the Ruidoso, Alto, and Capitan areas.

Across the southern Sacramento mountains, your high temperatures will range from the low-mid 70's in the Cloudcroft area. And the mid 80's in the Mayhill, Mountain Park, Timberon, and Weed/Sacramento areas. 

Overall the chances for rain over the local area have dwindled to just about zero. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible over near the mountains but widespread thunderstorm activity is not in the cards until the middle to end of next week. The forecast models are hinting at another surge of monsoonal moisture overspreading the western and central areas of the state by then. 

Latest La Niña Outlook.

Synopsis:  La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (60% chance in July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (62-66% chance).

During June, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) weakened across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean with SSTs returning to near-average in the east-central Pacific [Fig. 1], as reflected by the Niño indices, which ranged from -0.4°C to -1.2°C during the past week [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures anomalies averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth were weakly positive in June [Fig. 3]. Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted near the surface to ~75m depth in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with above-average temperatures at depth (~100 to 200m) in the western and central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies prevailed in the western and central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued over most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection remained suppressed over the western and central Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was consistent with La Niña conditions.

The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index now forecasts La Niña to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus also predicts La Niña to persist during the remainder of 2022, with odds for La Niña remaining at 60% or greater through early winter. Lowest odds occur during the next few months with a 60% chance of La Niña and a 39% chance of ENSO-neutral during July-September 2022. Subsequently, chances of La Niña increase slightly during the fall and early winter. In summary, La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (60% chance in July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (62-66% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 August 2022.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.