Quiet Before The Storm?

This is the second morning in a row now with a low temp of 24°F here at our home in Carlsbad, NM. Which so far is my lowest temperature of this fall/winter season. Nothing really remarkable about this at all considering that Carlsbad's average high/low temperatures for the date are 56°F/24°F. 

Long Range Outlooks?

Valid @ 5 PM MST Friday December 11, 2015.

Valid @ 5 AM MST Saturday December 12, 2015.

Nothing much happening with New Mexico's weather and it looks that it will stay this way for awhile. Our next significant winter storm will occur around the 11th or 12th of the month , or in about ten days for now. I'm always a little skittish with forecasts this far out but I don't see much worth worrying about in the models this morning until then. Long range forecast models continue their latest trends of a pattern change over the next week to ten days and beyond so it appears that things will pick up soon. My gut feeling tells me that within a week or two and beyond mother nature is fixing to open up a "meteorological can of winter-worms/storms". So get ready folks. 

First Stab - Guess At Our Chances For A White XMAS?

Last Nights 06Z/11 PM MST CFSV2 Accumulated Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 11 PM MST Christmas Eve, 2015.

Wellllllllll...yea. Take this one with a giant grain of salt but here is what this long range forecast models is currently thinking about our chances of a white Christmas this year. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!


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