Brutally Cold Airmass Plunges Us Back Into Winter!

Valid At 5 AM MST Wed Feb 2, 2011.

Update 3:00 PM Sun Jan 30, 2011.

Winter Storm Watch For The Sacramento Mtn's
Tuesday Night - Thursday
Generally 8" - 14" New Snowfall
Up To 24" New Snowfall Higher East Facing Slopes

Winter Storm Watch For All Of SE NM
Late Monday Night - Tuesday Afternoon
Generally 1" - 4" New Snowfall
Northerly Winds 20-30 MPH
Producing Wind Chill Values Below Zero

Winter Storm Watch Southern NM
Tuesday Afternoon - Late Wednesday Night
1" - 4" New Snowfall
Northerly Wind Gusts 25-30 MPH
Producing Wind Chill Values Near Zero

Dangerous Winter Storm still on track to hammer most all of New Mexico Monday through Thursday. Very heavy snowfall totals of up to around 2' (Feet Not Inches) are forecast for the Sacramento Mountains, as well as other mountain locations in the state.

We can now expect at least 1" - 4" of snowfall across all of the lower elevations of southeastern New Mexico, from late Monday night into at least Tuesday afternoon. The models are still struggling with the details of this dangerous winter storm, but it is possible that we may end up with even higher snowfall totals across the local area, especially near the mountains!

With temperatures in the teens and twenties expected on Tuesday, very low wind chill values in the single digits, to near zero can be expected across the local area!

Dangerous Wind Chill Values are forecast across southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. With temperatures dropping down into the single digits, and northerly winds of 20-30 mph, Wind Chill values may dip down into the -10 to -20F range across the area!

High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will struggle to get out of the teens and twenties over the area. Overnight low temperatures will dip down into the single digit values, maybe even below zero in a few locations.

The Clayton area is expecting a low of near -15F Wednesday morning. The Clovis area is now expecting low temp's of near -5F Wednesday morning. The Roswell area is now expecting low temp's as low as 0F Wednesday morning. The Ruidoso area is now expecting low temp's as low as -5F Wednesday morning.

This Is A Dangerous Winter Storm That Will Have Huge Impacts Upon Travel Across The State Monday Through Thursday. Please Take Early Precautions To Protect Your Livestock, Pets, and Yourselves Against The Dangerous Cold, Potentially Life Threatening Wind Chill Values, And Heavy Snowfall That Is Now Forecast To Impact The Local Area, As Well As Most Of The State This Upcoming Week!

Some of the nearby National Weather Service Office Forecasters are calling next weeks blast of arctic air, the coldest since the mid-January 1997 outbreak. New record low maximum, and new record low temperatures, will likely be established in some locations by the end of next week. This Winter Storm could potentially have the strongest impact upon southeastern New Mexico, since the three Winter Storms Storms, that hammered the area during the Christmas Holidays of 1997.

Get ready SE NM and surrounding areas...Winter will return with a vengeance late Monday night! A powerful arctic/polar cold front is now forecast to enter the local area late Monday night, or early Tuesday morning.

It's passage will be characterized by rapidly falling temperatures, gusty northerly to northeasterly winds, and bone chilling wind chill values. In fact our wind chill values Tuesday morning will likely be near zero, to below zero across the area. A Wind Chill Advisory may be issued for the area by the Midland National Weather Service Forecast Office, and the Albuquerque National Weather Service Office.

After seeing our afternoon high temperatures climb up into the upper 60's to the low 70's today and Monday, Tuesday through Thursday will be quite a shock, as our high temperatures fall some 50 degrees or more across the area.

Roswell Climate Dec 8th, 2005 High 25 Low 3.
Roswell Climate Dec 9th, 2005 High 34 Low 11.

Artesia Climate Dec 8th, 2005 High 29 Low 1.
Artesia Climate Dec 9th, 2005 High 34 Low 1.

Carlsbad Climate Dec 8th, 2005 High 28 Low 5.
Carlsbad Climate Dec 9th, 2005 High 34 Low 5.

Hobbs Climate Dec 8th, 2005 High 28 Low 4.
Hobbs Climate Dec 9th, 2005 High 33 Low 11.
Forecast High Temps Tuesday
Low Temps Tuesday Night.

Lubbock 21/6
Clovis 15/0
Hobbs 24/10
Roswell 27/9
Artesia 27/11
Carlsbad 27/14

Forecast High Temps Wednesday
Low Temperatures Wednesday Night.

Clovis 18/5
Lubbock 18/6
Hobbs 20/8
Roswell 22/7
Artesia 23/8
Carlsbad 26/8

Forecast High Temps Thursday
Low Temperatures Thursday Night.

Clovis 32/17
Lubbock 31/16
Hobbs 32/16
Roswell 31/15
Artesia 30/18
Carlsbad 32/16

These temperatures may be a little too warm, it's possible that many of us may not get out of the teens for high temp's on Wednesday. Once we fall below freezing late Monday night, or early Tuesday morning, we probably will not rise above freezing until Friday. If we see accumulating snowfall amounts across the local area, then don't be surprised to see some of our low temp's drop down to below zero Wednesday or Thursday mornings.

A mixed bag of wintry precipitation is still forecast across the area late Monday night, continuing into Wednesday. A mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet will quickly change over to all snow across SE NM by Tuesday morning. The mountains still stand a pretty good chance of seeing heavy snowfall totals. Accumulating snowfall totals will also be possible across SE NM as well.

I used last nights US GFS model forecast maps to depict the general position of the upper-level storm set to hammer the state. The European (ECMWF) and Canadian (GEM) models are forecasting more of a closed upper-level low to our west, which would help to produce more widespread, and heavier snowfall totals across the state than what the GFS model is forecasting.

This is a complicated winter storm that will impact all of New Mexico from Monday into Thursday. Area residents are urged to stay abreast of all of the latest National Weather Service Watches, Warnings, and Special Weather Statements that are likely to be issued during this potentially dangerous major winter event.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!


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