Severe Weather This Memorial Day Weekend!

Blog Updated At 11:49 AM MDT.

5-25-2021

4-Miles North Of Orla, Texas.

Apparent Lightning Strike Damage?

Severe Weather This Memorial Day Weekend!

And just like that, we have been upgraded to an ENHANCED risk (orange area). The main concern in this area will be VERY LARGE HAIL but a tornado and/or damaging winds will definitely be possible. Keep your eyes on the weather this afternoon and tonight! #txwx #nmwx.

Storm Prediction Center.

 Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook.

(Friday, May 28, 2021).

SPC Day 1 Outlook (Today) Update.

(As of 10:27 AM MDT).

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
   OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail, damaging winds,
   and a couple tornadoes are possible across parts of west and central
   Texas into eastern New Mexico, mainly this afternoon and evening.

   ...TX...
   A very moist and potentially unstable air mass is in place today
   across much of central and southwest TX, with dewpoints in the mid
   60s to lower 70s, pockets of strong heating, and very steep
   mid-level lapse rates.  Forecast soundings across the region show
   afternoon MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg and little cap.  This
   should result in the development of scattered intense supercells
   along the various boundaries analyzed over this area and along the
   dryline over southeast NM and southwest TX.  Deep layer shear will
   favor rotating storms, and straight-line hodographs suggest
   left-moving supercells will also occur.  Damaging winds and a few
   tornadoes are possible.  However, the primary threat appears to be
   very large hail.  Therefore, have opted to add an ENH risk area and
   a 30%/sig hail probability area.  Storms should maintain severe
   threat through much of the evening as they spread southeastward
   toward central TX, with an increasing risk of bowing structures and
   damaging winds.

Surface Map Forecast.

NWS NDFD Storm Total Rainfall Forecasts.

Be Weather-Aware!

Many people in the area have outdoor plans today into Memorial Day (Monday). Unfortunately, our weather has plans too and they are not so good. Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are forecast for Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas today through Monday. Saturday may be a down day in some areas but a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in Southeastern New Mexico.

Today (Friday) will see scattered severe thunderstorms developing by noontime and continuing into tonight. These severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing very large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and flash flooding.

A few tornadoes will also be possible today and again with Sunday's severe thunderstorms. Area residents are encouraged to have multiple ways to monitor weather conditions and be prepared to seek shelter when severe thunderstorms move into your location or area.

Remember: Turn Around - Don't Drown!

Remember: Never Attempt To Drive Across A Flooded Arroyo - Especially At Night!

Remember: When Thunder Roars - Go Indoors!

Remember: If You Can Hear Thunder - You Are Close Enough To Be Struck By Lightning!

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!