Significant Risk For Severe Thunderstorms In SE New Mexico Today Into Tonight.

5-15-2021
A Steel Tower & A Cumlonimbus Tower.
Looking Southwest From Lakewood Towards Carlsbad Caverns.

 Day 1 (Today) Severe Weather Outlook.




Severe Thunderstorms Today Into Tonight.

All of the necessary parameters for severe thunderstorms to erupt over Southeastern New Mexico and nearby areas today into tonight are in place. Scattered thunderstorms will develop by around noontime (if not before in some areas) and increase in coverage and intensity as the afternoon wears on. Some of them will be severe.

Low level southeasterly upslope flow has imported rich Gulf of Mexico moisture (dew points in the 60's locally) into the area overnight. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be around 7.5 c/km to 8.5 c/km, surface-based cape values are forecast to be around 2500 to 3000 j/kg, bulk wind shear values (surface to 6km) are forecast to be around 40 to 50 knots, thus the atmosphere over the local area will be very unstable today into tonight.

Supercell thunderstorms are likely. Large to very large hail (maybe golf ball size or larger) will be possible along with damaging thunderstorm winds gusts in excess of 60 mph. Frequent deadly lightning will also occur with any thunderstorm that develops. Locally heavy rainfall could also produce localized flash flooding.

A few tornadoes are also possible with any Supercell thunderstorm. Area residents are advised to be weather-aware today with your situational awareness in a heightened state when thunderstorms develop. As of 8:45 AM MDT, this Saturday morning radar is already showing a thunderstorm with a hail core in southeastern Chaves County. 

Remember to have multiple ways available to receive severe weather alerts. Many of you will be attending outdoor sporting events, picnics, fishing trips, camping trips, etc. Be especially aware of changing weather conditions and ready to seek shelter immediately if a storm approaches your location.

Remember: When thunder roars...go indoors. If you can hear thunder then you are close enough to the thunderstorm to be struck by its lightning. Turn Around...Don't drown.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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