SPC Mesoscale Discussion #607.
Wow! You don't see wording for our neck of the woods like this very often from the SPC. 3" to 4"+ diameter hail. A gorilla hail kind of day for SE NM & W TX. I'll be out chasing this afternoon. No core punching for me. Thinking the Carlsbad-Hobbs-Jal-Orla areas.
Mesoscale Discussion 0607 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CDT Sun May 01 2022 Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern NM into west TX and the Edwards Plateau Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 011804Z - 012030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The threat for very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes will increase as thunderstorms develop this afternoon. Some of the very large hail could be 3 to 4+ inches in diameter. Watch issuance will likely be needed in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to stream northward early this afternoon in tandem with a 20-25 kt southeasterly low-level jet across parts of west TX and vicinity. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass and the presence of rather steep mid-level lapse rates indicated on the 12Z MAF sounding are already supporting MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg as of 18Z. Additional heating and surface dewpoints generally increasing into the low to mid 60s will likely foster even stronger instability by late afternoon, with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg possible. The east-southeasterly low-level upslope flow will likely aid convective initiation across the higher terrain of southeastern NM and west TX over the next couple of hours. A veering and strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear, with considerable speed shear noted at mid/upper levels in various NAM/RAP forecast soundings across this region. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will easily support scattered supercells with an attendant threat for very large hail. Some of the this hail could be 3 to 4+ inches in diameter given the large reservoir of buoyancy that will be available, presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, and long/straight hodographs in the 3-9 km layer. Although the low-level flow is fairly modest at the moment, some strengthening of the southeasterly low-level jet is forecast by early evening. As low-level hodographs correspondingly increase/lengthen, there should be a risk for a few tornadoes, especially along/near the northward-advancing warm front. Severe/damaging winds could also become a concern as supercells may eventually congeal into small bowing clusters across parts of the Edwards Plateau this evening. Observational trends will be closely monitored for signs of convective initiation across west TX, and a watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours. ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/01/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29410418 30880413 32450434 32830377 32940319 32880226 32560101 32220017 31889956 31499919 31129917 30429938 30269972 30230049 30050113 29740151 29790230 29690263 29230284 28940316 29160377 29410418
There Are None So Blind As Those Who Will "Not" To See.