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More T-Storms & Heavy Rains.

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7-31-2016
North Of Silver Lake In The Sacramento Mountains.

Models Playing Games With Rainfall Forecast Totals.

GFS Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Tuesday, August 16, 2016

WPC 7-Day Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Wednesday, August 17, 2016

NAM/WRF Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ Noon  AM MDT Saturday, August 13, 2016.

As they often do when dealing with a deep subtropical moisture feed and approaching cold front the forecast models have started their usual flip flopping on where the heaviest rains will fall and how much. Locally heavy rains have fallen over the area the past couple of days and we are still on track for more heavy rain. Note that the 06Z run of the NAM/WRF model depicted above still forecasts 5"-6" over parts of Lea County by noontime Saturday. 

Once again scattered thunderstorms producing locally heavy rains are in the cards today. More so on Friday into Saturday as a cold front sags southward into the local area. Again thunderstorms will produce heavy rainfall along with the possibility of flash flooding. I still expect to see local storm total rainfall amounts in the 2" - 6" range, maybe higher in a few spots. 

Radar Estimated Rainfall Totals.
(Past 24 & 72 Hours).

Reported Rainfall Totals Past 24-Hours.
(Along With Radar Estimated Totals).



Radar Estimated Rainfall Totals.
(Past 72 Hours).


NWS Midland Forecast For Today.


The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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My Precipitation Totals - 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad

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Blog Updated 9-19-2016 @ 6:31 PM MDT. Diane & I Chase A Monster Of A Supercell!  Saturday, Sept 17, 2016.  Courtesy Of Diane J. Malone. My Wife (Diane) And I Took Old Yo Crossing Rd. South Out Of Roswell And Finally Got Out In Front Of This Monster Of A Supercell Thunderstorm On St. Hwy 13. She Took This Photo Near Mile Marker 11. Pretty Much Describes Rural Southeastern New Mexico. 3:09 PM MDT: This Beast Had Multiple Wall Clouds That At Times Showed Slow Rotation And At Other Times Was Spinning Like A Top. This Was A Ground Hugger At Times As Well. Initially When This Storm Developed South Of Picacho It Was Showing A Northeastward Movement On Radar. That Didn't Last Long As It Intensified And Started Heading East Then Made A Right Turn (Right Mover) And Took Off To The Southeast. At Times Moving Southeastward At 15-20 MPH Then It Would Accelerating To 40 MPH.  3:47 PM MDT: We Are About 1 Mile West Of Hope In Western Eddy County On ...
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Blog Updated @ 3:11 PM MDT. Click On The Photos & Newspaper Articles To Enlarge Them. On May 31, 1991 at 8:39 PM MDT a then rated (F-2 Tornado touched down 2.1 miles southeast of the Carlsbad Airport (as the crow flies) just southwest of the end of Wagonwheel Rd. A day and time that many local residents will never forget. Newspaper articles at the time reported conflicting reports (understandably so) concerning the damage, injuries, and the time of the tornado. To many residents this was a shock...not something that we are used to seeing or dealing with.  The tornado touched down right at dusk. Cass Hernandez who was the Carlsbad Airport Security Guard at the time observed the tornado 2 miles southeast of the Airport as power flashes occurred from the tornado destroying power lines and transformers. It was eerie looking contrasted with the darkness and power flashes but there was no mistaking what was happening. The Tornado's path is circled in red...
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This blog and its contents are for informational purposes only! Always have multiple sources of information available to rely upon during severe weather. Do not rely solely on the Internet. Be weather-aware, plan ahead, have a backup plan, and be ready to act before severe weather strikes your location.