A Brief Break Wednesday & Thursday.

8-11-2019.

High Based T-Storms Southwest Of Hope.

Wide swatches of the local area remain parched and burnt from the lack of rain and heat.

NAM 3K Forecast High Temps.

Today.

Wednesday.

NAM 3K Composite Radar Forecast.

Valid At 5 PM Wednesday Afternoon.

NAM Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 6 AM MDT Thursday.

So far this summer I've reached 100º or higher on 31 days here at our home in northwest Carlsbad. Forecast highs today in the Pecos Valley will average around 99º to 103º.

A couple of the forecast models offer some brief relief from the heat late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night. A complex of thunderstorms (MCS) is forecast to move southward down the plains and into the Pecos Valley late Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with a the stronger storms possibly producing rainfall totals of around 1" to 2". 

Notice that the NAM forecast model (depicted above) shows this complex of thunderstorms rolling into the Roswell and Artesia areas before 6 PM Wednesday. Forecast temps at 5 PM range from 78º in Artesia to 101º in Carlsbad. Timing of the arrival of these thunderstorms will be crucial to whether or not these temperatures do pan out at this time. 

Long range forecast models are split on the rest of the week into the weekend and the first of next week. The GFS cools us down into the 90's with scattered thunderstorms at times especially over and near the mountains.

The European model cranks the heat back up by the weekend with highs Saturday and Sunday near 105º. Its forecast high for Monday for Carlsbad is 108º. Fall can't come soon enough!

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!