First Look At Winter - Grand Solar Minimum Still Coming.
First Look At Winter.
As I write this it is 105ºF in Carlsbad, New Mexico. This marks the 60th time this summer I've hit 100ºF or higher here at our home on my Davis Vantage Pro+ Wireless Home Weather Station. Even though we live in the arid high desert Southwest, enough already. This is the year it seems summer is never going to end.
So how about something different, something to distract you from the heat and drought? Farmers Almanac has released it's 2020-2021 Winter Forecast.
Long-range forecasting has never been my cup of tea but I've always admired those who attempt this almost impossible feat. Given how hot and dry our summer has been don't be surprised if Mother Nature tries to swing the pendulum the other way (cold winter) to balance herself out. Remember: "What goes up - always comes down, it's just of when."
"“Based on our time-tested weather formula, the forecast for the upcoming winter looks a lot different from last year, quite divided with some very intense cold snaps and snowfall,” states editor Peter Geiger, Philom."
"In New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma east into Arkansas, and Louisiana, Mother Nature will mix intervals of tranquil weather with occasional shots of cold and wintry precipitation but overall may seem to be a bit “temperamental.”
Sunspot number: 0
Updated 28 Aug 2020
Current Stretch: 7 days
2020 total: 163 days (68%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 28 Aug 2020
In this editorial, I will demonstrate with newly discovered solar activity proxy-magnetic field that the Sun has entered into the modern Grand Solar Minimum (2020–2053) that will lead to a significant reduction of solar magnetic field and activity like during Maunder minimum leading to noticeable reduction of terrestrial temperature.
Currently, the Sun has completed solar cycle 24 – the weakest cycle of the past 100+ years – and in 2020, has started cycle 25. During the periods of low solar activity, such as the modern grand solar minimum, the Sun will often be devoid of sunspots. This is what is observed now at the start of this minimum, because in 2020 the Sun has seen, in total, 115 spotless days (or 78%), meaning 2020 is on track to surpass the space-age record of 281 spotless days (or 77%) observed in 2019. However, the cycle 25 start is still slow in firing active regions and flares, so with every extra day/week/month that passes, the null in solar activity is extended marking a start of grand solar minimum. What are the consequences for Earth of this decrease of solar activity?
Similarly to Maunder Minimum, as discussed above, the reduction of solar magnetic field will cause a decrease of solar irradiance by about 0.22% for a duration of three solar cycles (25–27) for the first modern grand minimum (2020–2053) and four solar cycles from the second modern grand minimum (2370–2415).
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!