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Hurricane Marco - Tropical Laura & New Mexico Smoke.

(At 9:10 AM MDT Sunday, August 23, 2020).

Level 1:
In today's GOES-16 image, you can see the enhanced fire detection ability of the satellite. Check out the bright ares in the yellow circles. They depict heat from active wildfires. We use this a lot during our spring wildfire season here in West TX too #lubwx #scienceiscool

There's a lot of smoke floating around the stalled ridge of high pressure in the western United States. Also neat to see all the smoke being pulled in to the remnants of once Category 4 #HurricaneGenevieve near the Baja... #COwx #Smoke #HRRRSmoke #CAwx


     August 23, 2020

Currently, 93 large fires have burned more than 1.6 million acres in 13 states. More than 26,000 wildland firefighters and support personnel are assigned to incidents across the country. Evacuation orders are in effect for residents near 20 large fires in Arizona, California, Colorado, Oregon and Utah.

U.S. GFS 500 Millibar(18,000' MSL) Analysis.
(At 6 AM MDT Sunday, August 23, 2020).

Hazy-Smoky New Mexico Skies.

     Hazy, milky, smoky skies at sunrise this morning continue across New Mexico and nearby areas. Thanks to the numerous Western U.S. forest fires and wildfires that continue to burn. Currently, the northern two-thirds of New Mexico are under an Air Quality Alert because of these fires. Clockwise circulation around a strong mid-level (500 millibars or 18,000') high-pressure center which was located over the 4-Corners at sunrise this morning, continues to feed smoke south and southeastward into New Mexico from California and the rest of the Western U.S.

Rough Week Ahead For Louisana & Maybe Texas.

     Marco has strengthened to a Hurricane late this morning while Tropical Storm Laura is continuing to track slightly further south than model forecasts originally indicated. These won't be the only changes in status of these two Tropical Cyclones either. I expect to see more changes with both storms.

     It is of concern that the latest model guidance is tracking Laura further westward and closer to the Houston and Beaumont, Texas areas. Equally worrisome is that there is potential for Laura to become a Major Hurricane before making landfall the middle to end of next week somewhere along the Texas/Louisana Coastline. 

     Marco's increase in strength to Hurricane status this morning gives concern for southern Louisana on Monday also. 

Hurricane Marco.

(At 10:47 AM MDT Sunday, August 23, 20020).

Hurricane Marco Longwave IR (2 KM) Satellite Image.
(At 10:52 AM MDT Sunday, August 23, 2020).


(Click On The Link For The Very Latest Updates).
Hurricane Marco Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142020
1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...MARCO BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED 
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that Marco has strengthened into a hurricane with maximum winds of 
75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 87.4W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142020
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...MARCO EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY AS IT ENTERS
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED 
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 87.3W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from the 
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including 
Mobile Bay. 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for....
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Morgan City Louisiana
* Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was 
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 87.3 West. Marco is 
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this 
motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn 
to the northwest by Monday. On the forecast track, Marco will cross 
the central Gulf of Mexico today and will approach southeastern 
Louisiana on Monday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest with 
a decrease in forward speed is expected after Marco moves inland.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is anticipated and Marco is forecast to
become a hurricane later today and be at hurricane strength when it
approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Rapid weakening is
expected after Marco moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Morgan City LA to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft
Sabine Pass to Morgan City LA...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs MS to the MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area on Monday, and hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2
to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the
Central U.S. Gulf coast through Tuesday.

This rainfall may result in isolated areas of flash and urban
flooding along the Central U.S. Gulf Coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible early Monday morning
near the southeast Louisiana coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Forecast Discussion.
(Click On The Link For The Very Latest Updates).
Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142020
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Deep convection with cloud tops of -75 to -80 degrees C has 
persisted over the center of Marco for the past several hours. An 
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating 
the cyclone measured winds equivalent to 62 kt both with the SFMR 
and in a dropsonde in the northeastern eyewall. However, the 
aircraft reported peak 850-mb flight level winds of only 64 kt. 
Based on a blend of these data it appears that Marco is on the cusp 
of becoming a hurricane, but is not quite there yet. Therefore, the 
initial intensity remains 60 kt.

Based on the SHIPS guidance, Marco has about a 12-24 hour window to 
intensify in an environment characterized by moderate southwesterly 
shear, very warm waters, and plenty of atmospheric moisture. After 
that time, the vertical wind shear is expected to increase and this 
should begin to dominate the cyclone's environment. The latest NHC 
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, forecasting 
Marco to become a hurricane later today, and maintaining hurricane 
intensity up until landfall in agreement with the latest LGEM 
intensity guidance. While it is possible that Marco will weaken just 
prior to landfall due to the increasing shear, there is little 
difference in the impacts between a 60 and 65 kt system. 

Marco is moving north-northwestward or 340/12 kt. Although the 
overall guidance has not changed much since the previous advisory, 
there remains considerable spread in this guidance by the time Marco 
reaches the northern Gulf coast. This spread could be attributed to 
the varying ways the models handle the system as it encounters the 
more hostile environment near the coast. Since the track consensus 
aids have changed little through 36 h, the official forecast is 
essentially the same as the previous one through that time. The 
model guidance has shifted a little northward beyond 36 h, so the 
official forecast was nudged to the north during that time as well. 

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast
beginning on Monday, and Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have
been issued. Interests in these areas should follow any advice
given by local government officials.

2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge,
rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the
middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of
hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco.
Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and
updates to the forecast during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 24.7N  87.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 26.4N  88.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 28.2N  89.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 29.5N  90.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 48H  25/1200Z 30.5N  92.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 60H  26/0000Z 31.2N  93.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  26/1200Z 31.8N  95.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
Tropical Storm Laura.

Tropical Storm Laura Longwave IR (2 KM) Satellite Image.
(At 11:17 AM MDT Sunday, August 23, 2020).





(Click On The Link For The Very Latest Updates).

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...LAURA HEADING TOWARD EASTERN CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 74.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning along the south coast of the Dominican
Republic and has discontinued the warning along the north coast of
the Dominican Republic east of Samana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Samana to
the border with Haiti
* Entire coast of the Haiti
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 74.3 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days.  A turn toward the northwest is foreast on
Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
near or over Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.  Laura is expected to move
over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near
Cuba. However, strengthening is forecast after the storm moves over
the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane late
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum
amounts of 12 inches.

Jamaica: 2 to 4 inches, with maximum amounts of 6 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti through
this evening.  Tropical storm conditions are expected within
portions of the warning area in Cuba later today through Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch
area tonight through Monday evening.

SURF:  Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands.  These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
-----------------------------------------------------------------
(Click On The Link For The Very Latest Updates).
Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Laura continues to produce a large area of deep convection to the 
south and southeast of the estimated center location.  The center 
has not been easy to locate this morning, but the low-cloud motions 
seen in GOES-16 one-minute visible imagery, along with surface 
observations, suggest that the center is just west of the west coast 
of Haiti.  Data from a NOAA P-3 aircraft that has flown a 
tail-Doppler radar mission along the southern and northern coasts of 
Hispaniola this morning found maximum winds of 40-45 kt, so the 
initial intensity has been set at 45 kt.  Little change in strength 
is expected during the next 36 hours while Laura moves near or over 
Cuba.  When the center of Laura emerges over the Gulf of Mexico 
Monday night, the upper-level environment is expected to be 
conducive for strengthening, and once the circulation recovers from 
its trek over land, deepening is anticipated.  Warm water and a very 
favorable upper-level wind pattern are expected to allow for steady 
intensification until Laura reaches the northern Gulf coast, and 
with landfall expected between the 72 and 96 h forecast points, the 
system could be somewhat stronger than explicitly indicated below.  
The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the SHIPS and HFIP 
corrected consensus models. 

Although the center of Laura was been difficult to track while it 
passed over Hispaniola, the estimated motion is west-northwestward 
at about 18 kt.  A strong deep-layer ridge over the western 
Atlantic should continue to steer Laura west-northwestward for the 
next couple of days.  The track guidance has continued to nudge 
southward during the first 36 hours and the official forecast 
has been adjusted accordingly, taking the storm closer to the 
southern coast of Cuba.  After that time, the ridge is forecast to 
build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  This pattern 
should allow Laura to maintain a west-northwestward motion until it 
approaches the central Gulf, where a northwestward motion is 
expected to begin as the storm nears the western periphery of
the ridge.  The dynamical models have trended toward stronger 
ridging over the eastern Gulf, resulting in a westward shift in 
the guidance. The NHC track forecast has been moved westward at 
72-96 hours, and lies between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. Users are 
reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track forecast 
at the longer range as future adjustments will likely be required, 
and storm hazards will extend far from the center. 

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the 
Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern 
Bahamas, and Cuba through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely across 
these areas and could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and 
urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the central Bahamas 
and Andros Island tonight and Monday, and in the Florida Keys on
Monday.

3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts 
remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of 
Mexico and there is an increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and 
wind impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of 
the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous 
weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco earlier in 
the week. Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress 
of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next few 
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 19.2N  73.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 20.3N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  24/1200Z 21.6N  79.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR CUBA
 36H  25/0000Z 22.9N  83.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  25/1200Z 24.1N  86.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  26/0000Z 25.3N  88.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 26.8N  91.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 30.9N  94.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
120H  28/1200Z 35.7N  92.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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