What Will The Impacts Of Invest 90E Have On NM - If Any?

After The Rains - The Fog.

Watching Invest 90E.

This Mornings 12Z/6 AM MDT GFS 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 6 AM MDT Tuesday, September 6, 2016.

One of the major factors in determining what if any impacts Invest 90E will have on New Mexico will be the location and timing of an upper level trough of low pressure currently digging into the Western US. This trough is forecast to scope up or pull Invest 90E northward into the Desert Southwest by later this upcoming week.

So does the trough keep its remnant moisture to our west over Arizona or does it nudge it further east into southern New Mexico? Does 90E become a Hurricane this week...there is at least a 90% chance of it becoming at least a Tropical Storm. Again just exactly where this Tropical Storm tracks later this week will have huge implications on whether or not we a looking at another heavy rain and flash flood event late this week. Lots of unknowns at this point.

But keep in mind that September is historically our wettest month of the year in southeastern New Mexico. And we have a history of Pacific and Gulf Coast Hurricanes slamming the local area with their remnant moisture after they make landfall. 

Given that the past couple of weeks most of the local area received the brunt of its rainfall totals for August, and these totals generally ranged from 4" to 10". A few isolated spots in eastern Eddy County and western Lea County may have picked up over 10" for the month. Should the remnant moisutre from 90E work its way into our local area later this week and dump as much rain as some of the models are forecasting then we would likely experience another Flash Flood Event which possibly could be more widespread with higher impacts that those of the past week. 

GFS Forecast Rainfall Totals By 6 PM MDT Thursday, September 8, 2016.

GEM (Canadian) Forecast Rainfall Totals By 6 PM MDT Thursday, September 8, 2016.

WPC Forecast Rainfall Totals By 6 PM MDT Thursday, September 8, 2016.

Chaves County.

Runyan Ranches 6.71"
Elk Climate Stn 5.61"
Roswell Arpt 5.05"
Dunken Raws 4.65"
Roswell 0.3 SSW 3.36"

Northern Eddy County.

Caprock Raws 10.49"
Artesia 3.5 NNE 6.44"
Artesia Arpt 5.54"
Hope Climate Stn 5.20"
Brantley Dam Climate Stn 4.22"
Artesia Climate Stn 4.17"

Southern Eddy County.

Queen 33.3 SW Carlsbad 8.60"
Queen Raws 8.59"
Bat Draw Raws 6.70"
Carlsbad Caverns Natl Park Climate Stn 7.57"
Dark Canyon Rd Climate Stn 7.06"
Carlsbad Airport 6.93"
2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad 6.78"
Carlsbad 1.9 NW 6.64"
Carlsbad Climate Stn 6.34"
Carlsbad 2.0 N 6.13"
Loving 3.62"

Lea County.

Hobbs 8.0 SSE 8.88"
Monument 1.2 W 8.23"
Nadine 2 E 7.99"
Hobbs Climate Stn 7.77"
Hobbs 2.4 ESE 6.11"
Lovington 0.9 NNW 6.06"
Tatum 2 SW 5.39"
Tatum Climate 4.07"
Jal Climate Stn 3.81"
Hobbs Arpt 2.46"

Lincoln County.

Near Runnels Stable (Bonito Lake) 6.60"
Arabela 2.5 SSW 5.87"
Capitan 1.3 WSW 5.48"
Bonito Lake Near Alto 4.75"
Sierra Blanca Snotel 4.70"
Nogal Peak Crest Trail 4.58"
Nogal 4.6 SSE 4.48"
Smokey Bear Raws 4.34"
Ruidoso 2.9 SW 4.13"
Alto 2.7 E 2.81"
Sierra Blanca Arpt 1.61" 

Otero County.

Cloudcroft 4.0 E 8.32"
Mayhill 2.8 WNW 8.11"
Cloudcroft 2.3 S 7.73"
Cloudcroft 1.8 SW 6.79"
Cloudcroft Climate Stn 6.51"
Cloudcroft 0.4 ESE 5.97"
Mescal Raws Near Mescalero 4.04"
Sunspot 0.2 SSW 5.34"
Weed PWS 3.30"
Cloudcroft 5.4 W 3.00"

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!


National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm Nicholas NHC Forecast Track

2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM 24-Hour Temp Graph

2.1 Downtown Carlsbad, NM 7-Day Temp Graph

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