A slight risk of severe thunderstorms will exists across parts of the Permian Basin of west Texas this afternoon and evening. As of 5 AM MDT this morning there is a 20% chance of Skywarn Spotter Activation in the Midland NWS County Warning Area this afternoon, mainly across the northeast Permian Basin. At this time the main severe weather threats appear to be large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph. A higher risk of severe thunderstorms will occur from the Permian Basin, northward into the Texas Panhandle, near the intersection of the dryline and approaching strong cold front this afternoon and evening.
Southeastern New Mexico should miss out on the thunderstorm activity today. Of a bigger concern for us will be the approaching upper-level storm from the west, and the southward advancing strong cold front from the north and northeast on Tuesday. Colder air will overspread the area behind the front Tuesday night into Wednesday. There still remains some uncertainty in just how cold and wet we will get. The models haven't settled on just how far south the upper-level storm will dig just yet.
High temps on Tuesday ahead of the cold front will likely be in the 70's. Wednesday's highs are still a little on the iffy side, perhaps the 50's & 60's for most of us. Although I wouldn't be surprised to see some highs only in the 40's if overcast skies, along with areas of light drizzle and rain, set in across the local area behind the front. A few thunderstorms may also be possible Tuesday night. Rainfall totals should stay under a half of an inch with this storm, unless of course the storm slows down and sinks further south than what is currently being forecast.
Latest forecasts (as of 4 AM MDT this morning) from the Albuquerque National Weather Service Office have pulled the chances of snow out of the forecast for Clovis and Roswell. Northeastern New Mexico is still expecting to pick up some of the white stuff however. Clayton has a 60% chance of a rain and snow mix Tuesday night into Wednesday. Tucumcari also has a 60% chance of seeing a rain and snow mix Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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