Significant Severe Outbreak Still Forecast Sunday Into Wednesday.






A potentially significant severe weather outbreak still appears to be on track for parts of Tornado Alley. Round one may come Sunday across Kansas and Oklahoma. Monday's severe weather outbreak is forecast to occur across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Tuesday's outbreak looks like it will be the most widespread and significant of the three and will affect areas from Central Texas northward to Kansas. By Wednesday the threat will shift further to the east and south and affect the Middle Mississippi Valley Region.

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Updated forecasts and outlooks will be available by the Storm Prediction Center, as well as the local National Weather Service Offices that will be affected in the above mentioned threatened areas. Please click on this link to visit those offices.

Very large hail, some of which may be up to baseball size or possibly larger, along with damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, very heavy rainfall that may cause flooding and flash flooding, will all be possible in these areas Sunday through Wednesday. Tornadoes are also forecast, some of which may be of the large, long track nature.

Strong Storm To Affect New Mexico.

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Tuesday.

GFS 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 6 PM MDT Tuesday.

NAM 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 6 PM MDT Tuesday.

NAM Forecast Storm Top Temperatures Forecast.
Valid @ 6 PM MDT Monday.

ECMWF Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 6 PM MDT Wednesday.

ECMWF 24-Hour Precipitation Forecast.
Valid @ Midnight MDT Tuesday.

ECMWF Temperature Anomaly.
Valid @ 6 PM MDT Tuesday.


Three different computer models all giving three different forecasts as far as the placement of the center of the strong closed upper-level low by late Tuesday afternoon. Remember that the further to the north of southeastern New Mexico the center of this storm tracks, the less likely that we will receive any precipitation out of it, and the greater the chances for more high winds, blowing dust, and extremely dangerous fire weather conditions.  

High temperatures across southeastern New Mexico are forecast to range from the mid-upper 80's to the low 90's today into Monday. Monday will likely become windy to very windy, along with areas of blowing dust, not to mention Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions. A cold front will slice across the state on Tuesday which will knock our high temps back down into at least the 60's if not cooler by Wednesday.

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Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions are expected today! Please be smart and try to avoid outdoor burning and starting campfires this Memorial Day weekend. Any new fire starts will spread rapidly. It is extremely important today to follow safety protocols and regulations issued by local authorities, including any evacuation orders. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged and potentially illegal and very dangerous. Your neighbors lives and livelihood may be affected by your actions.

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