Valid At 6 AM MDT Saturday Sept 29, 2012.
Thunderstorms will make a return to southeastern New Mexico and nearby west Texas starting today. An upper-level trough of low pressure is located to our west and northwest this morning. This feature will slide slowly eastward the next couple of days. Meanwhile a second short wave trough of low pressure is forecast to move into northern Mexico and far west Texas by late Thursday.
Remnant mid and high level moisture associate with Tropical Storm Miriam will begin to stream northeastward into southeastern New Mexico today into Friday. A weak frontal boundary draped over the area will provide additional lift for thunderstorm development. Low-level moisture streaming northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico will also be on the increase.
All of the these features will combine to increase scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms across the area today into at least Friday, and possibly into the weekend. A few strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. Although at this time it does not appear that we will see a widespread severe weather event.
Of greater concern will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall, especially on Thursday into Friday. Localized flash flooding will be possible in some locations, especially across the recent burn scar areas in the mountains. By Saturday a few locations may see rainfall totals of 1" - 3".
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