Computer Models Struggling With Next Week's Arctic Air Mass.
Hidalgo Gas Plant Sunrise (West Of Orla, TX) - December 7, 2016.
Red skies in the morning and sailors take warning...twenty four hours later we had 2" of snow on the ground.
Cold Air Trapped In The Pecos Valley This Morning.
NWS MesoWest High Temperatures On Friday.
Cold air along with fog and low clouds were once again trapped in the Pecos Valley of Southeastern New Mexico this morning buy an inversion. Meaning that temperatures were warmer a few thousand feet above the ground than they were at the surface in the valley. Cold air is heavier and denser than warm air thus the warmer air above the dome of cold air at the surface was acting liking a lid and helping to keep the cold air trapped in the Pecos Valley. Light winds also contributed to this therefore preventing very little mixing of the atmosphere with height so the cold air at the surface did not get scoured out.
This was also true yesterday afternoon. Take a look at this morning's temperatures at 10:30 AM . It was some 25 to 30 degrees colder in the Pecos Valley than it was in the Sacramento Mountains 50 to 100 miles west of us. This was also true of the reported high temperatures on Friday afternoon. Temps this morning in the Pecos Valley (average elevation 3,100 - 3,600' MSL) were in the 30's while the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains (at and elevation ranging from 5,000' to 7,000' MSL) were in the 50's and 60's.
Clearing Skies & Warmer Temps.
NWS Experimental Graphical Forecast High Temps Today.
NWS Experimental Graphical Forecast High Temps Today.
High Temps Sunday.
NWS Experimental Graphical Forecast High Temps For Sunday.
NWS Experimental Graphical Forecast High Temps For Sunday.
HIgh Temps Monday.
NWS Experimental Graphical Forecast High Temps For Monday.
NWS Experimental Graphical Forecast High Temps For Monday.
Windy In The Mountains This Afternoon Into Sunday Afternoon.
Dark Brown Shaded Areas.
Peak Wind Forecast For NM.
Valid This Afternoon Through Monday Afternoon.
NWS Experimental Peak Wind Forecast.
Valid This Afternoon Through Monday Afternoon.
West winds are back and will howl across the Northern and Central Mountains of the state this afternoon into Sunday afternoon. West winds sustained at 35 to 45 mph with gusts near 65 mph are forecast. Areas of blowing snow will occur in the higher mountains and localized areas of blowing dust will occur in some of the lower elevations.
Still Cold In Alaska & NW Canada.
A low temperature of -58ºF was reported this morning at the Montana Creek automated weather station (HADS) in Central Alaska. Low temps of near -45ºF were also reported in the Yukon Territory of Northwestern Canada.
GFS Temperature Anomaly Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Next Thursday, Dec 15, 2016.
GFS Forecast High Temperatures Wednesday, Dec 14, 2016.
Last nights European (ECMWF) model run and this morning's run as well as this morning's US GFS model both are backing off on next week's first intrusion of arctic air in New Mexico. Historically the computer forecast models have a difficult time in forecasting arctic air masses. This may be the case coming up with the midweek outbreak, and yet another intrusion by next weekend. Previous runs over the past couple of days had indicated that the cold air would arrive in the Eastern Plains of New Mexico Wednesday night. Now they are hinting that it may or may not make it into Southeastern New Mexico. But the jury is still out on this one so don't be surprised if the models are wrong.
GFS Temperature Anomaly Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Thursday, Dec 15, 2016.
GFS Forecast High Temperatures Thursday, Dec 15, 2016.
Where Is The Snow?
Valid Today Through Monday At 5 PM MST.
GFS Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid At 5 PM MST Saturday, Dec 17, 2016.
Both the ECMWF and GEM models are not very excited about much snowfall over the state over the next week. This mornings run of the US GFS model hints that this may change by next weekend.
December 9th, 1978 Hope reported a low temperature of -10ºF.
December 9th, 1978 Fort Sumner reported a low temperature of -18ºF.
December 10th, 1978 Carlsbad reported a low temperature of 9ºF.
December 10th, 1978 Roswell reported a low temperature of 1ºF.
December 10th, 1978 Portales reported a low temperature of -4ºF.
December 10th, 1978 Artesia reported a low temperature of -9ºF.
December 10th, 1978 the Bitter Lakes Wildlife Refuge reported a low temp of -11ºF.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
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