Severe Thunderstorms Return Monday Into Wednesday?



Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday.

What do cutoff upper level lows to our southwest and the dryline produce this time of the year? Answer= Severe thunderstorms. Thus the forecast come Monday, Tuesday, and perhaps into Wednesday. This forecast sounding is for 6 PM MDT Monday just south of Carlsbad along the New Mexico and Texas State line. 

Today's NAM forecast sounding (shown above) shows a potential severe weather setup for the local area. Come 6 PM MDT Monday this model is forecasting Surface based capes to reach 2900+ j/kg, with Lifted Indexes of -10, and 700-500 millibar Lapse Rates of 8.5ºC, and Surface to 6 KM shear values of 61 knots. It also forecasts a Supercell composite number of 7.0 and places the dryline in the Pecos Valley with minimal Capping (CIN of -4). Not the greatest setup but I think it has the right idea. Forecast Convective temperature at the time is 81ºF and model forecasts indicate that we will reach the mid to upper 80's Monday afternoon so breaking what little cap there is over the local area should not be a problem.

Bottom line is depending upon the exact location of the cutoff low to our west and the timing of the short waves ejecting northeastward out of it,  severe thunderstorms will be possible across Southeastern and Eastern New Mexico and parts of West Texas Monday into Wednesday. 

The location of the dryline will be a determining factor where these severe thunderstorms will fire up.


Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday.

Surface Based Cape Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday.

Surface Based CIN (Capping) Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday.

Surface Based Lifted Index Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Monday.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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