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Mild & Breezy Today - Next Winter Storm Affects The Area Thursday.


Blog Updated:
 At 1:21 PM MST Wednesday, January 1, 2020.
At 2:56 PM MST Wednesday, January 1, 2020.

December 12th, 2019.
Looking back to the north at ground fog lifting out over Whites City.

Happy New Year!

Here's wishing everyone a Happy New Year. With a heartfelt thanks to all of you who take the time to read my blog posts. As of this morning, my blog stats stand at 1,350,072 unique visits to my weather web page since June 2010. Add another 57,000 visits to that prior to 2010 when I wasn't using bloggers stats and I've had some 1,407,000+ visits. I'm humbled by this and truthfully I never dreamed that I would create this much interest when I created my web page. 

Quick Hitting Winter Storm Thursday.


At 5 AM MST This New Years Morning.

European (ECMWF) 500 MB (18,000') Forecast.

Valid At 5 AM MST Thursday, January 2, 2020.

At sunrise, this New Years' morning a deep cutoff mid-upper level low was located west of the southern tip of Baja, California. This morning run of the European model digs this storm southeast today into sunrise Thursday morning while opening it up into a trough of low pressure and weakening it.

At the same time, a short wave trough of low pressure at the 18,000' level is forecast to dive southward from northwestern Montana into the southern Rockies and New Mexico by sunrise Thursday morning. 

Valid At 5 PM MST Thursday, January 2, 2020.

As the closed low weakens the shrot wave trough approaching from the north will merge with it over New Mexico on Thursday.

Valid At 5 AM MST Friday, January 3, 2020.

These mornings Canadian and GFS models have similar forecasts with the GFS a little deep and further north with the closed low at sunrise Friday morning. 


Valid At 5 AM MST Thursday, January 2, 2019.



Valid Today Through 5 AM MST Friday, January 3, 2020.



NWS NDFD Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.


Our inbound quick-hitting Winter Storm will be somewhat moisture-starved and should not linger around long enough to drop heavy snow over the area. Snow levels across the local area should drop down to around 5,000' tonight. Current forecasts call for a couple of inches of new snow across the higher elevations of the Sacramento mountains tonight into Thursday. With a dusting possible in the Guadalupes and across southern New Mexico. 

Roswell and nearby areas, as well as northern Lea County, may see a light mix of rain and snow Thursday. But as of this writing (Wednesday at noontime), no significant accumulations are expected. 


This Map Was Updated At 2:56 PM MST Wednesday, January 1, 2020.

Valid Today Through 5 PM MST Thursday, January 2, 2020.



Today through Thursday west winds sustained at 45 to 55 mph with gusts near 70 mph!

West winds are forecast to become sustained at 25 to 35 mph with gusts near 55 mph today across the Eastern Plains of New Mexico. These winds will shift around to the north and northeast tonight behind the frontal passage. Westerly gusts to near 70 mph may occur near and over the Guadalupe mountains today into Thursday night.  

NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperatures. 

Thursday.


Friday.


Latest model forecasts are calling for a southward moving cold front to enter the Southeastern Plains around sunrise Thursday morning. Cooler air will overspread the area behind the front Thursday and Friday. Today's forecast highs locally are in the 60's with highs on Thursday and Friday expected to be in the 50's across the plains.


Artesia, New Mexico.


Looking down the road it would appear that no earth-shattering or news-making weather is headed our way anytime soon. Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages with the usual up and swings at times.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction - And Sometimes It Hurts!

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