Potential Still There For A Historic Winter Storm/Blizzard This Weekend.


Blog Updated @ 4:30 PM MST Christmas Eve.


This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST U.S. GFS 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, Dec 26, 2015.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST U.S. GFS 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST U.S. GFS 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015. 

For simplicity's sake I chose to use just the U.S. GFS 500 millibar forecasts this morning concerning the track of our inbound Major Winter Storm. The NAM, GGEM, GEM, and the ECMWF are basically showing a similar track but with some very slight differences in the timing and speed of the storm. 

Generally speaking it is forecast to drop into southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico by sunset Saturday. Then trek slowly eastward across northern Mexico Sunday. By Monday morning most of the models have it entering the Texas Big Bend. Historically this is just about as a perfect setup that we can have to get clobbered with heavy snowfall here in New Mexico...especially the southern and eastern one halves of the state.

Snow Begins Falling Saturday Morning.

Valid @ 5 AM MST Saturday, Dec 26, 2015.

Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, Dec 26, 2015.

Potential Impacts From This Historic Snowstorm/Blizzard?
(My Thoughts & Opinions).

A strong cold front is forecast to sweep southeastward across New Mexico late Christmas night into Saturday morning. Arctic air will deepen and surge southward behind the frontal boundary Saturday evening. Rapidly falling temperatures and very strong northwesterly to northeasterly winds will accompany the initial front passage, and continue into Saturday night and Sunday.

 Timing of the arrival of the colder air behind the front will be crucial as to when the change over from rain to snow occurs. Which should be a fairly quick process in most areas. Snow is forecast to develop over the western and northwestern third of the state Saturday morning and spread eastward and southward as the day progresses. For most areas the worst of the storm should occur Saturday night into Sunday night. Snow may still be falling over the eastern and southeastern third of the state Monday morning though.

 In northeastern, eastern, and southeastern New Mexico north to northeasterly winds will become sustained at 25-40 mph with higher gusts Saturday night into Sunday. These winds along with very heavy snowfall will create near Blizzard if not Blizzard conditions. 

Travel will become dangerous, difficult, if not impossible in these areas Saturday night into Sunday...maybe longer. Life threatening conditions may exist in some areas during the worst of the storm! Other areas of the state may also experience near blizzard to blizzard conditions also. Many of the states roadways may become shut down and impossible to travel upon...especially over the northeastern, eastern, southeastern plains, and some mountainous areas.

Excessive snowfall totals may lead to roof loading problems and cause some roofs to collapse under the weight of the snow. This will be especially true of those mountains areas that receive excessive amounts of snow and elsewhere in the eastern plains and nearby areas.

Power outages may occur in some areas due to the high winds and forecast heavy snowfall totals. This will occur as the weight of the snow brings down trees limbs onto power lines, and perhaps some power lines themselves. 

Livestock concerns will be very high concerning this Winter Storm. Now is the time to prepare to have extra feed for your cattle, horses, pigs, sheep, and other livestock. If you can provide them shelter from the strong winds, heavy snowfall, and cold I would recommend doing so. Wind chill values are forecast to drop down to 0°F or lower in some areas.

This storm has the potential to have major impacts upon the Oilfield Industry of the state and nearby areas. Will this one be as bad as the February 2011 storm? I'm not sure yet but the potential is there. This mornings computer forecast models are forecasting temperatures in southeastern New Mexico to drop below 32°F by Saturday evening...and stay below freezing this weekend and into the New Years weekend!

The Central Mountain Chain, the Western Mountains, the Sacramento, Capitan, and Guadalupe Mountains, the Eastern Plains, and the Southeastern plains at this time all appears to be ground zero for the heaviest snowfall totals as per the forecast models. So how much is the question everyone's asking? Generally speaking I think these areas will see 10" to 30". Some Mountain communities in the Sacramento Mountains may see two fee or more...and maybe parts of the eastern and southeastern plains.  

Model Forecast Snowfall Totals.
(Just Estimates So Use Cautiously. These Are Subject To Change).

Note: Please use these maps/graphics with caution! I can't guarantee that some of these snowfall totals (which I totally agree are incredibly excessive) will pan out. These values are going to continue to change with each new model run every 6-12 hours. The general idea that I am trying to convey here is that many areas of the state may experience heavy to very heavy snowfall along with dangerous/potentially Life Threatening winter weather conditions!

My opinion is that I think parts of New Mexico may be facing a Historic Blizzard/Winter Storm. This one has the potential to go down in the record books as one to be remembered for a long time. This is not an official forecast - just my thoughts and opinions.


This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST U.S. GFS Accumulated Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, Dec 26, 2015.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST U.S. GFS Accumulated Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST U.S. GFS Accumulated Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015.

Canadian (GEM) Snowfall Forecasts.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST Canadian (GEM) Accumulated Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Monday, Dec 28, 2015.

(Worst Case Scenario Using The Kurchera Method).

Valid @ 5 PM MST Monday, Dec 28, 2015.

Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015.

(Worst Case Scenario Using The Kurchera Method).

Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015.

Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday, Dec 27, 2015.

(Temperature & Snowfall).

Roswell, New Mexico.

Artesia, New Mexico.

Carlsbad, New Mexico.

Tatum, New Mexico.

Hobbs, New Mexico.


Albuquerque, NM.

Roswell, NM.


Carlsbad, NM.

Hobbs, NM.

El Paso, TX.

NWS Weather Service Watches & Warnings.


These Watches/Warnings will change as the storm gets closer to New Mexico. Additional Winter Storm Watches/Warnings are likely to be issued by our local NWS Offices. In time the Watches will likely be upgraded to Warnings. So check this site often for the very latest information.

(Christmas Eve 2015).

(Christmas Eve 2015).

(Christmas Eve 2015).

Curent Watches/Advisories In Effect.
(Subject To Change).












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